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Saints Must Again Fluster Brady to Stay in South Race

New Orleans has the successful formula for battering, harassing, and frustrating Tom Brady.  Their slim NFC South hopes hinges on them doing it again in Week 13 at Tampa Bay.

Bob Rose

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NFC South rivals square off when the New Orleans Saints visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football to wind up Week 13. The 4-8 Saints need a win to maintain any chance for a division title, while the 5-6 Buccaneers could strengthen their hold on first place. 

Entering the year, it was thought that New Orleans would have one of the NFL's best defenses. Instead, the team has been plagued by poor tackling, injuries, and inconsistent performance. 

The Saints have given up an average of 326.4 yards per game to rank 12th in the league. Their run defense has plummeted after ranking at the top of the NFL for four seasons. Pass defense has been better, but still prone to crucial letdowns. 

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady shows frustration against the New Orleans Saints during a Week 2 game. Credit: Sports Illustrated 

They'll face a Tampa Bay team led by future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady that's had its own struggles on the offensive side. The Buccaneers rank 18th in total yardage, averaging 339 per game, but are at the bottom of the league in rushing production and points scored. 

New Orleans has dominated Brady since he joined Tampa Bay in 2020. Here's how they match up against his passing attack coming into this critical showdown. 

Saints Pass Defense 

- 23.3 points per game (20th)

- 197.3 passing yards/game (7th)

- 62.2% completion percentage 

- 14 touchdowns (9th)

- 2 interceptions (32nd)

- 33 sacks/62 QB hits 

- 38.8% 3rd Down Percentage (12th)

New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) breaks up Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans (13) catch. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

After a slow start, New Orleans has allowed only one 200-yard passer in their last six contests and have the league's most sacks since Week 3. However, the Saints have just one interception in their last eight games, rank dead last with just two total picks, and are 31st in turnovers forced.

Saints coverage has not allowed a receiver to gain 70 yards or more in the last five games after some mid-season breakdowns. This even with elite CB Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven outings with serious abdomen injuries.

Lattimore has returned to practice on a limited basis but is at best a game-time decision for Monday. The secondary may also be without CB Bradley Roby, who is in concussion protocol. 

Without their two veterans, second-year CB Paulson Adebo and rookie second-round pick Alontae Taylor have taken starting reps. Adebo is a physical player with fluid coverage who's working through a bit of a sophomore slump. He's allowed 72% completion rate when targeted this year, but has broken up six passes and played much better in recent weeks. 

Taylor has been one of the team’s most pleasant surprises in 2022. He's tied with Adebo for the team-high in passes broken up and has yet to give up a touchdown pass. Despite being targeted heavily, Taylor has surrendered just 48.7% completion percentage. 

The absences of Lattimore and Roby have allowed opponents to throw at the Saints with great success when they go to multiple defensive backs. Veterans Chris Harris Jr., Justin Evans, and Tyrann Mathieu have all been liabilities in slot coverage. 

Mathieu, who has the Saints only two interceptions, and Marcus Maye have been colossal disappointments at safety. Maye has been in and out of the lineup with injuries and has made little impact. Mathieu has routinely been out of position in coverage support and tackle attempts all season to allow several big plays. 

Eleventh-year LB Demario Davis is having another strong year. Davis remains outstanding in coverage, able to lock onto backs or tight ends all over the field. He's also a devastating blitzer, adding in 10 pressures and leading the defense with a career-high 6.5 sacks. 

Second-year LB Pete Werner will likely miss his fourth straight game of a terrific season with an ankle injury. Without him, Kaden Elliss has stepped up and played spectacular football. Elliss doesn't have the open field skills of Davis or even Werner, but has improved his coverage skills. His strength is as a downhill defender, so the Saints will use him to disrupt opposing backfields. Elliss has a career-high 4.5 sacks and 6 QB hits this season, with 3.5 of those coming in the last four games. 

Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints defensive tackle David Onyemata (93) sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans has used their linebackers to bring additional inside pressure on quarterbacks this season because of the inconsistencies of their defensive tackles. The unit has played much better lately, but looks in major need of an offseason upgrade. 

David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, and Malcolm Roach have a combined 7.5 sacks, 17 QB hits, and 8 tackles for loss. Most of that has come in the last month, a disruption that must continue against Brady and the Buccaneers. 

Twelve-year DE Cameron Jordan leads a deep and ferocious rotation of edge rushers. Jordan has 5.5 sacks and a team-best 12 pressures this season. He's complemented by the 26-year-old Davenport, who has just a half sack but 11 pressures and six QB hits. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) is sacked by New Orleans Saints defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon (90). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

Standout depth is provided by Carl Granderson and Tanoh Kpassagnon, though Payton Turner will miss his fifth straight with an ankle injury. Granderson and Kpassagnon have combined for 4 sacks and 13 pressures. Backup LB Zack Baun also played well against the 49ers last week against the run and as a pass rusher with Turner and Werner out of the lineup. 

Buccaneers Passing Attack 

- 18.2 points per game (27th)

- 266 passing yards/game (5th)

- 14 touchdowns (18th)

- 3 interceptions (1st)

- 17 sacks

- 38% 3rd Down Percentage (23rd)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Because of their abysmal running attack, the 45-year-old Brady has the most passing attempts in the NFL this season. He's remained efficient, completing over 66% of his throws with six outings of at least 270 yards and only two interceptions. 

While Brady has declined a little, his offensive line and receivers have betrayed him. Injuries and personnel losses caused the team to replace all three interior offensive line positions this offseason. Center Robert Hainsey has been a pleasant surprise, but guards Shaq Mason and Nick Leverett have been erratic and rookie G Luke Goedeke has struggled. 

Veteran LT Donovan Smith has had a rocky year as a run blocker and pass protector. All-Pro RT Tristan Wirfs went down last week with an ankle injury that will keep him sidelined several games. He'll be replaced by journeyman Josh Wells on an offensive line that's allowed Brady to be sacked multiple times in five games and under constant duress this season. 

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are a pair of perennial 1,000-yard wideouts who have dealt with nagging injuries all year. Godwin leads the Bucs with 60 catches. However, he's averaged less than ten yards per catch for 585 yards and has just two scores and two outings of over 90 yards.

Evans has 51 receptions for a team-high 702 yards with 3 touchdowns and three games of over 90 yards. Both are physical route runners with enough speed to beat defenses over the top.

Oct 31, 2021; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) after a catch against New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Former Falcons WR Russell Gage has 29 catches for 231 yards, but has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury. Venerable WR Julio Jones missed significant time early in the year but has come on recently. He had 14 receptions and 218 yards in six games of action. Deep threat Scotty Miller, a Brady favorite, has pulled in 21 passes for 170 yards. 

Tampa Bay running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have had little impact on the ground, but are both effective receivers out of the backfield. Fournette has 43 catches for 315 yards and is tied with Evans with a team-high 3 touchdowns. White has added 29 receptions for 180 yards as a rookie. 

Brady has always relied on good tight ends. Rookie Cade Otton looks like the next potential standout and has 26 receptions for 281 yards. Veteran TE Cameron Brate has caught 16 passes for 137 yards after missing four games earlier in the year. 

What to Expect 

Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Brady is just 2-4 against the Saints since joining Tampa Bay. Both of those wins had little to do with him and were instead the result of good defense, a combined 9 Saints turnovers, and a productive running game. 

New Orleans has the book for beating Brady. The secret has been physical coverage on their big wideouts and interior pressure. The Saints defensive line has harassed, battered, and frustrated Brady without having to blitz. 

In six games against Brady since becoming a Buc, the Tampa Bay offense has averaged just 16 points. The Saints have intercepted him 8 times, forced three fumbles, recorded 15 sacks, and registered 51 pressures. Five of those turnovers, along with 7 sacks and 25 pressures, have come in two prime-time games in Tampa Bay, where the Saints have won by a combined score of 47-3.

Nov 5, 2017; New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore breaks up a pass to Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans. Mandatory Credit: Scott Clause/The Daily Advertiser via USA TODAY NETWORK

Lattimore has absolutely owned Mike Evans, holding him to 49% catch rate and two or less receptions in five of their last seven meetings.  In the likely event that Lattimore misses yet another game, the Saints will have to have an answer for Evans, Godwin, and an experienced crew of Buccaneers pass catchers.

The best solution against Brady is heavy interior pressure, which flusters him greatly.  New Orleans has the ability to get to him with a disruptive defensive front and has had great success doing so.  If they don't, their slim chances to pull out the NFC South will come to an end on the field of a divisional nemesis. 

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Bob Rose
BOB ROSE

Covers the New Orleans Saints as a senior writer for the Saints News Network.  Co-Host of the Bayou Blitz Podcast.