Woeful NFC South Keeps Saints in Contention
NFL fans have been treated to historically bad football in the NFC South in 2022. The division has a combined 18-29 record, a winning percentage of. 383. All four teams are below .500, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leading the pack at 5-6.
There seems a good chance that the winner of this division will enter the playoffs with a losing record. It would be just the fourth time in modern NFL history that's happened. The 2010 NFC West (Seattle, 7-9), 2014 NFC South (Carolina, 7-8-1) and 2020 NFC East (Washington, 7-9) share that dubious distinction.
The New Orleans Saints are currently in last place in the NFC South with a 4-8 record. Even through a disappointing campaign, the Saints still possess realistic hopes of a division title. If they can win at Tampa Bay this Monday night.
For those Saints fans clinging to positive hopes, here's how the remaining schedule for all NFC South teams look, along with their current records.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Week 13: vs. Saints (4-8)
Week 14: at 49ers (7-4)
Week 15: vs. Bengals (7-4)
Week 16: at Cardinals (4-8)
Week 17: vs. Panthers (4-8)
Week 18: at Falcons (5-7)
Winning percentage of remaining opponents = .443
Record vs. NFC South = 2-1
Record vs. NFC = 5-2
Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) and forces a fumble the ball during the second half. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay ranks around the middle of the pack in total offensive yards, but near the bottom of the league in points scored at 18.2 per game. Forget running the ball. The Buccaneers rank dead last in rushing yards (73/game) and 31st in rushing attempts. All the hopes of offensive success is now on the shoulders of 45-year-old QB Tom Brady, who's had a battered offensive line in front of him.
After a rocky start, the Buccaneers have come together defensively. They're a top-10 unit in total yardage and points allowed. Tampa Bay can still put terrific pressure on the quarterback, but their run defense has been vulnerable.
Tampa Bay has a strong record against the rest of the conference, an important tiebreaker advantage. The Buccaneers could essentially end the Saints season with a victory on Monday night and put a stranglehold on the division.
They still have two tough matchups left with San Francisco and Cincinnati, but would come into their final two divisional games with a sweep of New Orleans and a game in hand over Atlanta.
Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
Week 13: vs. Steelers (4-7)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Saints (4-8)
Week 16: at Ravens (7-4)
Week 17: vs. Cardinals (4-8)
Week 18: vs. Buccaneers (5-6)
Winning percentage of remaining opponents = .421
Record vs. NFC South = 1-3
Record vs. NFC = 4-5
Sep 11, 2022; New Orleans Saints linebackers Kaden Elliss (55) and Demario Davis (56) tackle Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson (84). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons might be the most pleasant surprise of the division this year. Many expected them to be in contention for the top overall draft choice in 2023.
Instead, Atlanta has become a physical running team behind a suddenly functional offensive line and explosive RB Cordarrelle Patterson. They still rank near the bottom of the league in every defensive category, but find a way to hang in there with opponents. Five of their seven losses have been by six points or less.
A fourth quarter collapse in the season opener against the Saints, a controversial loss to Tampa Bay, and a bumbling loss to Carolina put the Falcons at the wrong end of most divisional tiebreakers.
They can still change that narrative. If they beat Pittsburgh next week, defeat the Saints after a bye, then have Tampa Bay drop one, the season finale against the Buccaneers could be for the division title.
Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Week 13: BYE
Week 14: at Seahawks (6-5)
Week 15: vs. Steelers (4-7)
Week 16: vs. Lions (4-7)
Week 17: at Buccaneers (5-6)
Week 18: at Saints (4-8)
Winning percentage of remaining opponents = .411
Record vs. NFC South = 3-1
Record vs. NFC = 3-5
Jan 2, 2022; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs through the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina has started three different quarterbacks with equally bad results, fired their head coach, and traded star RB Christian McCaffrey. They've been as bad as many predicted at times, but have competed with great effort in recent weeks.
The Panthers have a young and dynamic defense with potential stars at every level capable of keeping them in any game. Offensively, they're a mess with sloppy quarterback play and no dynamic playmakers outside of WR D.J. Moore. Their best hope of victory is to try and control the ball, take occasional shots to Moore, and hope their defense makes a play to tilt a close game in their favor.
Carolina's remaining opponents have the worst winning percentage of any of the teams in the NFC South. The Panthers also hold a strong record within the division. If Atlanta and Tampa Bay slip up a little and the Panthers finish strong, they could do the unthinkable and take the South title.
New Orleans Saints (4-8)
Week 13: vs. Buccaneers (5-6)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: vs. Falcons (5-7)
Week 16: at Browns (4-7)
Week 17: at Eagles (10-1)
Week 18: vs. Panthers (4-8)
Winning percentage of remaining opponents = .491
Record vs. NFC South = 1-2
Record vs. NFC = 3-5
Sep 11, 2022; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a two point conversion in front of Atlanta Falcons safety Jaylinn Hawkins (32). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans might be the most frustrating team in the NFL this season. Injuries have taken a major toll on both sides of the ball, but the team is starting to get healthy for the stretch run.
The Saints have lost in baffling ways. A once-vaunted run defense has been routinely dominated by inferior talent. Their play-calling has been infuriating at times. They consistently hurt themselves with self-inflicted miscues and have committed among the most turnovers and penalties in the league.
On paper, the Saints have the talent to make a run. Rookies Chris Olave and Alontae Taylor have had terrific years. Alvin Kamara, Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore (currently injured) are among the NFL's best.
The Saints remaining opponents have the highest winning percentage of any team in the division. New Orleans has also lost crucial games within the conference and has a daunting matchup at Philadelphia left.
Still, if the Saints can sweep their three remaining divisional games, earn at least a split against Cleveland and Philadelphia, and get some help with another Buccaneers loss, they have a strong chance.
Don't automatically assume that whichever team stumbles their way to the NFC South title will be easy playoff fodder for the rest of the conference. Saints fans remember that their team, the defending world champs, was upset by the 7-9 Seahawks in a 2011 Wild Card game. The 2014 Panthers upset the Arizona Cardinals in their first-round postseason game. Washington nearly knocked off Tampa Bay, the eventual Super Bowl champ, in a 2021 first-round game.
The underachieving Saints will have to take care of business on the field before we even think of that. A loss to the Buccaneers on Monday would all but eliminate all postseason hopes. Perhaps mercifully so.
