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Saints Running Game Major Key Vs. Buccaneers in Week 13

New Orleans has struggled to run the ball in recent weeks, but that running game holds a big key to any chance at a win against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Bob Rose

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Week 13 of the NFL season culminates with the 4-8 New Orleans Saints at the 5-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's a critical contest for both teams, with the Saints clinging onto faint chances in the NFC South and the Buccaneers looking to strengthen their first place hold in the division. 

New Orleans is coming off a 13-0 road loss to the 49ers, the first time they'd been shut out since the 2001 season. They come into this game with the league's 15th ranked offense, averaging 347.3 yards per game.

However, New Orleans has killed themselves with self-inflicted miscues all season. The Saints have committed the second most turnovers in the NFL and are among the league leaders in penalties. 

It's also become clear that the Saints need to run the ball for any chance of success. That'll be easier said than done against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in total defense, allowing an average of 315.2 yards per contest.  

Each of these teams have had formidable run defenses for the last few years. However, both have had issues in that area in 2022, leading to some of their struggles.

Saints Rushing Attack 

- 20.8 points per game (21st)

- 113.2 rushing yards/game (22nd)

- 4.5 per rush (15th)

- 9 rushing touchdowns (24th)

- 40% 3rd Down Percentage (16th)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans has averaged over 152 yards on the ground in their four wins, but just 74 in seven of their eight losses. They've been held to less than 100 yards rushing in four consecutive games and five of the last six.

Part of those struggles were because injuries stripped the offensive line of three starters. Tackle James Hurst and LG Andrus Peat are back, though C Erik McCoy is still on injured reserve.

Rookie first-round pick Trevor Penning also saw his first action of the year last week. Pro Bowl RT Ryan Ramczyk and the greatly improved RG Cesar Ruiz have made a strong tandem most of the season. 

Dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara leads the Saints in rushing with 524 yards, but is on pace for the lowest rushing output of his six-year career. He has one 100-yard outing on the ground and another of 99 yards, but has rushed for over 60 yards just once in the last six games. 

Kamara is also second on the team with 49 receptions for 422 yards. The league's best all-purpose back, the Saints offense is most effective when he's used all around the formation. 

New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) rushes against Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (96). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

Taysom Hill is second on the Saints with 409 rushing yards and has a team-high five touchdowns on the ground. Hill is the bruising complement to Kamara, with the added threat of good open field speed. Listed as a tight end, he'll spell QB Andy Dalton behind center and threatens defenses with his all-purpose ability. 

Veteran RB Mark Ingram is back after missing three games with a knee injury. He has 206 yards and a score so far. The franchise's all-time leader in rushing yards and touchdowns, the 32-year-old Ingram is still an effective runner between the tackles. 

Buccaneers Run Defense 

- 18.5 points per game (7th)

- 123.2 rushing yards/game (20th)

- 4.6 per rush (22nd)

- 7 rushing touchdowns (8th)

- 64 tackles for loss 

- 37.4% 3rd Down Percentage (9th)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White (45). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

After holding a top-5 run defense for the last three seasons, Tampa Bay has had some issues stopping teams on the ground in 2022. They've held five opponents under 100 yards rushing, but five others have gashed them for over 150 yards. The Buccaneers have a 1-4 record in those games. 

Pro Bowl DT Vita Vea has been nicked up with injuries, but has still been an outstanding anchor for Tampa's 3-4 front. He's a nearly immovable force that takes multiple blockers to contain. Rakeem Nunez-Roches has been a steady interior defender that can spell Vea or step into a starting role. 

Former Saint Akiem Hicks was an offseason signing to replace the departed Ndamukong Suh, but missed time early in the year. He's returned for the last three games and is still a quality run-stopper up front. 

End William Gholston is having a quiet year but has been an underrated part of the Buccaneers defensive success for years. Rookie second-round choice Logan Hall has gotten valuable experience up front and adds youth at end. Edge rushers Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Anthony Nelson, and Carl Nassib are quality defenders, but must do a better job containing outside runs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebacker Lavonte David (54) tackles New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41). Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay has one of the league's most athletic tandem of inside linebackers in Lavonte David and Devin White. They are the team’s top two tacklers, have combined for 12 stops for loss, and are lightning fast in sideline-to-sideline pursuit. 

The Buccaneers have a physical secondary, but their corners aren't extremely active in run support. Star S Antoine Winfield Jr. may be limited because of an ankle injury and concussion. He's one of the league's best all-around safeties. Veterans Mike Edwards and Keanu Neal round out the position. 

What to Expect 

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Lavonte David is a terrific instinctive player who is rarely out of position. Devin White, on the other hand, can be caught out of position or frozen by misdirection. The Saints will try to isolate Kamara on White as much as possible, especially as a receiver. 

Kamara has been magnificent against Tampa Bay throughout his career. In 11 career games against the Buccaneers he's scored 11 touchdowns, has 549 yards rushing and 60 receptions for another 513.

With big bodies like Vea, Nunez-Roches, and Hicks in the middle, few teams have success running inside against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been vulnerable on off-tackle plays and outside runs all season, where the Saints excel best with Kamara and Taysom Hill. 

Kamara missed the Week 2 loss against the Bucs with an injury, a game where Hill carried just three times. New Orleans still rushed for 100 yards and averaged five yards per carry before an avalanche of turnovers did them in.

Expect the Saints to test Tampa Bay's edge early and often with Kamara as a runner and receiver, with Hill adding another threat when he's behind center. If successful, that would be a huge key in New Orleans keeping any NFC South title hopes alive.

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Bob Rose
BOB ROSE

Covers the New Orleans Saints as a senior writer for the Saints News Network.  Co-Host of the Bayou Blitz Podcast.