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Saints-Buccaneers: War for the NFC South

New Orleans basically faces postseason elimination on Monday Night Football at Tampa Bay. Here are the key battles to watch in their battle with the Buccaneers.

Bob Rose

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The 4-8 New Orleans Saints face an absolute must-win situation at the 5-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night for any hope at the NFC South title.  

Tampa Bay fans who jumped on the bandwagon after signing Tom Brady in 2020 have tried hard to manufacture a rivalry between the two fan bases. However, this is a series that the Saints have dominated, 39-23, including a 4-2 record against Brady's Bucs. New Orleans has won the last four games between these two in Tampa Bay, which include two routs of Brady and the Buccaneers in two prime-time matchups.

While the fan rivalry isn't necessarily there, games between these two squads have been contentious in recent years. With both teams in a desperate fight for their playoff lives, the intensity will be ramped up even more on a prime time stage.

Here are some of the position matchups that will determine the outcome of this pivotal NFC South showdown. 

Alvin Kamara vs. Buccaneers LBs

Nov 8, 2020; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY 

Kamara has had a frustrating year by his standards, but is still the key cog for the Saints offense. He leads the team with 524 rushing yards and is second on the squad with 49 receptions for 422 yards, but has more fumbles (4) than touchdowns (3) on the year. 

Tampa Bay's 3-4 base defense is fueled by the athletic ILB duo of Lavonte David and Devin White. They are the top two tacklers on the team, combining for 12 tackles for loss among 167 total stops. White has 5.5 sacks and 11 QB hits, while David remains one of the league's best all-around defenders. Both are capable of covering backs or tight ends and are blazing fast in sideline-to-sideline pursuit. 

In 11 career games against the Buccaneers, Kamara has fared well against this athletic tandem. He's averaged 97 yards from scrimmage in those contests and has reached the end zone 11 times. Kamara has been extremely successful as a receiver against Tampa, catching 60 passes for 513 yards with a 100-yard outing and two more of over 80. 

An efficient running game is crucial to set up balance and slow Buccaneer pass rush on Saints QB Andy Dalton. What is just as vital is Kamara's ability to win matchups against David and White in open space. It would lessen the burden on their struggling receiving corps and spread the Buccaneer defense so that New Orleans might have interior rushing success with Taysom Hill. 

Saints WRs vs. Buccaneers DBs

New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans found a star in first-round rookie WR Chris Olave, who leads the offense with 56 receptions for 822 yards. Beyond Olave there has been little impact from the receivers. Michael Thomas was lost for the year in Week 3. Jarvis Landry missed five games and has had little impact. Undrafted rookie Rashid Shaheed is promising, but veterans Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith continue to contribute little. Worsening matters is an ankle injury to TE Juwan Johnson that will keep him out of action tonight. 

Tampa Bay's defense ranks fifth against the pass. However, their secondary looks to be without safeties Antoine Winfield, Mike Edwards, and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting this evening. The Buccaneers still have two quality corners in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, with S Logan Ryan coming off injured reserve. 

Olave was targeted 13 times in a Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay. Most of those were unsuccessful deep balls, but he did pull in five passes for 80 yards. His outstanding route running skills will be used much more heavily in the rematch. A showdown with corners Dean and Davis, who have allowed a combined 56% completion rate, will be a major key to the game's outcome. 

With the bulk of defensive attention going to Kamara and Olave, Shaheed, Callaway, or Smith could be crucial X-factors. Smith has four touchdowns in his last four games against the Buccaneers. Callaway had six catches for 112 yards in a 2021 road upset of Tampa Bay. The explosive Shaheed could provide big plays against a secondary without their top two safeties. 

Fast separation and even a little contribution from these players would open things up for Kamara and Olave. It would also help offset a Tampa Bay pass rush on Dalton that has 36 sacks this season and forced six sacks and five turnovers in the first meeting between these teams. 

Saints CBs vs. Buccaneers WRs

Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has returned to practice on a limited basis, but it would be a surprise if he played tonight. No player would be more thankful if that's the case than Buccaneers WR Mike Evans. Lattimore has been Evans' personal nightmare, holding him to a 49% catch rate since 2019 and two catches or less in five of their last seven meetings. 

Without Lattimore, New Orleans must find an answer for Evans, fellow perennial 1,000-yard wideout Chris Godwin, and a deep crew of pass catchers that include wideouts Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage, and tight ends Cade Otton and Cameron Brate. 

Linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Elliss will be charged with covering the tight ends and backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White out of the backfield. They'll get help from safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu, who will also be responsible for deep support and some slot duties. 

Cornerbacks Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby, and rookie star Alontae Taylor will face off against Evans, Godwin, and the other wideouts. These will be physical battles all night. Lattimore won those physical battles over Evans. The key to preventing Brady a quick look will be for Taylor, Adebo, and Roby to have similar success. 

Brady has thrown 8 interceptions against 9 touchdowns in his last six outings versus New Orleans.  The success of the Saints defensive backs would also help their pass rush, setting up perhaps the biggest matchup of the evening. 

Saints Defensive Line vs. Tom Brady

Nov 5, 2017; New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore breaks up a pass to Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans. Mandatory Credit: Scott Clause/The Daily Advertiser via USA TODAY NETWORK

This would normally be worded as a matchup against Tampa Bay offensive line.  It's extremely important that a Saints run defense that's struggled most of the year completely eliminate a 32nd ranked Buccaneers running game.  The book on beating Brady is: beat him up with pressure from your defensive front (especially up the middle) and for your coverage to not give him quick looks.

New Orleans has the personnel to accomplish this feat.  The Saints have 33 sacks and 62 QB hits this season.  They have the most sacks in the league since Week 3.

New Orleans has an impressive wave of edge rushers.  Perennial Pro Bowler Cam Jordan is well complemented by Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, and Tanoh Kpassagnon.  A defensive tackle corps that had a horrid start to the year has picked up the pace in recent weeks.  They're led by the athletic David Onyemata, along with Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, and Malcolm Roach.  The Saints bring additional pressure from Demario Davis and Kaden Elliss, who have combined for 11 sacks and countless hurries. 

Injuries and offseason personnel losses weakened Tampa Bay's interior offensive line.  Robert Hainsey has been solid at center, but guards Shaq Mason and Nick Leverett have struggled with consistency.  The Buccaneers will now be without injured RT Tristan Wirfs for several weeks because of injury, while LT Donovan Smith has had a rocky year. 

New Orleans has registered 15 sacks and 51 pressures on Brady in six games while forcing three fumbles and causing him to lose composure. Seven of those sacks and 25 pressures happened in two games in Tampa Bay when the Saints held them to just three points. 

Cam Jordan has tortured the Buccaneers throughout his career, registering 17 sacks, 34 QB hits, 18 tackles for loss, and forcing five fumbles in 24 games.  In two meetings last year, he had three sacks and eight pressures of Brady while forcing two fumbles. 

The Saints will need exactly that kind of disruption this evening. Not just from the edge but possibly even more importantly from their tackles. It probably means the difference between making a major move in the NFC South or their season coming to an end. 

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Bob Rose
BOB ROSE

Covers the New Orleans Saints as a senior writer for the Saints News Network.  Co-Host of the Bayou Blitz Podcast.