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Saints Path to Playoffs for Week 18

New Orleans controls their playoff destiny going into the regular-season finale against their rivals in Atlanta.

Kyle T. Mosley

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New Orleans controls their playoff destiny going into the regular-season finale against their rivals in Atlanta.

Several playoff computer models project New Orleans' chances of making the 2022 NFC Wild Card round under 40%. Regardless, you have to believe Sean Payton will have his team ready for the finale versus the dreaded Falcons.

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Jan 2, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) and defensive tackle David Onyemata (93) walk off the field together after forcing the Carolina Panthers to punt in the second quarter at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

To add intrigue, the NFL decided to move the New Orleans Saints (8-8) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9) season finale to 3:25 PM CT on Sunday, Jan. 9. San Francisco will square off against the Rams at the same time. There will be no opportunities for the players to watch the scoreboard. They have to take control and "do their job."

A road contest inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a familiar foe should make any Saints fan and Who Dat nervous.

If we know anything about a Saints-Falcons battle, standings and records don't matter. Yesterday, Matt Ryan and his team were eliminated from the playoffs after a 29-15 road loss to the Buffalo Bills.

After witnessing 50+ years of the Saints-Falcons rivalries, Atlanta would love a chance to kick the Saints out of playoff contention.

The biggest challenge for New Orleans and the rest of the NFL is handling the COVID-19 outbreak.  Should key players go onto the reserve/COVID-19 list for Week 18, this could become detrimental for some teams' postseason plans.

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Jan 2, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton talks to running back Alvin Kamara (41) as he walks off the field in the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

WHAT THE COMPUTERS SAY...

Here are what the data geeks are projecting for the Saints' chances going into Week 18:

  1. ESPN: 38%
  2. FiveThirtyEight.com: 39%
  3. NY Times Playoff Machine: 35%

CLINCHING SCENARIOS AND ODDS

New Orleans will clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Falcons and a loss by the 49ers to the Rams.  New Orleans opens as a 6.5 point favorite on the road vs. Atlanta.

The Rams have the NFC West division title within their reach. Should they defeat the 49ers, they clinch the division over the Cardinals and remain as the NFC No. 2 seed.  Los Angeles opens as a 5.5 point favorite vs. San Francisco.

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© Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

KEY PLAYERS FOR THE FINALE

  • TAYSOM HILL AND ALVIN KAMARA:  I join these two at the hip for a reason.  Whatever offensive issues they have in working together must immediately be smoothed-out.  It's evident that the offense with Hill and Kamara on the field doesn't operate with efficiency.   Besides the New York Jets game, Kamara's numbers are slumping with Hill at quarterback.  This game is too important for the Saints not to find a way to get Kamara cranking in Atlanta.

Opponent

Rushing Yards

Receiving Yards

Touchdowns

Jets

120

25

1

Tampa Bay

11

13

0

Miami

13

7

0

Carolina

13

68

1

  • CAM JORDAN:  The old leader is dominating at the right time.  Dennis Allen is doing the right thing with Jordan.  Moving him around the defensive line from right to left to inside - it's working.  Since missing the Jets game due to COVID-19, Jordan has been a wrecking ball!  7.5 sacks in 3 games is an outstanding performance from the sully veteran.   On Sunday, he faces the quarterback he's sacked more than any other in the NFL - Matty Ice!  For Jordan, can he make him Matty Iceberg and sink the Falcons? 
  • MARQUEZ CALLAWAY:  It's simple, the second-year receiver is maturing.  Consistency has been his issue for 2021-22.  He has to use his hands and not the body in catching passes, especially from Hill.  Callaway was targeted 10 times and dropped 3 footballs.  He will have his opportunities against the Falcons' secondary.
  • CJ GARDNER-JOHNSON:  I've said it once, twice, and more times than I can count.  Every defense needs a Ceedy Duce.  The Instigator!  He was having a quiet day until he hit Sam Darnold, not once, but twice.  His interception sealed the game for the Saints.  He needs to be himself in Atlanta for New Orleans to have a chance "at" and "in" the playoffs.

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Kyle T. Mosley
KYLE T. MOSLEY