Saints Run Defense Must Withstand Eagles Onslaught for Upset

New Orleans was decimated by Philadelphia's ground game the last two times these teams have met and has struggled against the run much of the year. To pull off a Week 17 upset, they'll have to shut down the Eagles ground assault.

The 6-9 New Orleans Saints square off against the 13-2 Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday on the road. It's a big game for both teams, with the Saints hoping to hold onto slim postseason chances and the Eagles looking to sew up the NFC's top seed.

New Orleans came into the year with the expectations of having one of the league's top defenses. They do rank 9th in total defense, giving up an average of 322.4 yards per contest. They've also suffered breakdowns in crucial moments and have forced the fewest turnovers (11) in the league. 

The Saints have held four straight opponents under 20 points and only one team has scored over 20 in their last eight games. However, they've also had major struggles in a category they dominated from 2018 through 2021 - the running game. 

New Orleans takes on an explosive Philadelphia attack that ranks third in total offense and first in scoring. The Eagles average 397.3 yards per game and have one of the league's most improved passing attacks, but are still fueled but the NFL's most dynamic running attacks.

The Saints chances to cling to a postseason chance hinges on their ability to right their run defense against a formidable opponent, but one that might be missing it's most versatile threat.

Saints Run Defense 

- 21.7 points per game (14th)

- 132 rushing yards/game (23rd)

- 4.5 per rush (22nd)

- 14 rushing touchdowns (15th)

- 69 tackles for loss 

- 41.5% 3rd Down Percentage (24th)

For five years this was an unimaginable statistic, but New Orleans has allowed seven teams to gain over 140 yards against them on the ground, including three games of over 200. Three runners have had 100-yard outings against them, with another seven gaining at least 70 yards.

The struggles against the run start at the defensive tackle position. David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, and Malcolm Roach have often failed to get penetration or simply been pushed around by blockers. All four have played far better in recent weeks, but it's still a spot that needs to be addressed in the offseason. 

New Orleans defensive ends have played reasonably well against the run, but their effectiveness is reduced because of the interior issues. Opponents have often been able to run inside of Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, and Tanoh Kpassagnon with little resistance.

Jordan's pass rush production has dipped, but his 11 tackles for loss still leads the team. Granderson has played exceptionally over the second half of the year. His 8 tackles for loss and 47 total stops are career bests. Davenport and Kpassagnon have had quiet seasons but are still capable of disrupting opposing backfields. 

Saints linebackers have been consistently strong all season. Demario Davis is having another terrific season and leads the Saints with 94 tackles, including nine for loss. His elite instincts, sideline-to-sideline pursuit, and ferocious hits fuel the entire defense. 

Nov 21, 2021; New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY

Second-year LB Pete Werner was leading the NFL in tackles before hurting his ankle in Week 9. The injury forced him to miss four games. One game after his return, Werner injured a hamstring that sidelined him last week and will likely keep him out of action Sunday. 

Without Werner, fourth-year LB Kaden Elliss has blossomed into a star. Elliss has consistently disrupted offenses over the second half of the year and has been a terrific complement to Davis. His 71 tackles are a career high and he's regularly blown up blockers to get to the ball carrier. 

Tackling has been an issue for New Orleans throughout the year. No player has epitomized those struggles more than veteran S Tyrann Mathieu, who's been a massive disappointment this season. Marcus Maye, another offseason pickup, has been another disappointment because of his inability to stay on the field. Maye is expected to miss his sixth game of the year, this time because of a shoulder injury. 

The Saints have a physical secondary which includes corners Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo, but have not swarmed to the ball like we've seen in years past. They'll face a huge test to contain Philadelphia's ground game this week.

Eagles Rushing Attack 

- 29.7 points per game (1st)

- 153.8 rushing yards/game (4th)

- 4.7 per rush (12th)

- 31 rushing touchdowns (1st)

- 48% 3rd Down Percentage (3rd)

Dec 13, 2020; Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders (26) runs for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia likes to pound opponents and has been held to under 90 yards rushing just three times this season. They have four outings of over 200 yards on the ground, including an eye-popping 363 against the Packers in Week 12.

The Eagles ground assault is led by fourth-year RB Miles Sanders, an explosive runner with underrated power. Sanders has a career-high 1,175 yards and 11 touchdowns, which includes three 100-yard performances and five more of at least 70.

Sanders has been limited by a knee injury in practice this week, but is expected to play. If he's limited, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will assume bigger roles. Gainwell and Scott have combined for 362 yards and six scores this year with Sanders carrying the load, but both have proven to be quality runners when given opportunity. 

Third-year QB Jalen Hurts has become an MVP-candidate because of his improvement as a passer. However, Hurts' running ability has always been a lethal weapon for defenses. He's second to Sanders with 747 rushing yards, which includes a 100-yard game and two more of over 70.

Nov 21, 2021; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs past New Orleans Saints S P.J. Williams (26) on a 24-yard touchdown run. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY

Built like a running back at 6'1" and 233-Lbs., Hurts has power, burst, and good vision as a runner. He has a team-high 13 rushing scores, a career high. Hurts is also dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder that forced him to miss last week. He returned to practice on Thursday and appears on target to play.

Gardner Minshew will get the nod at quarterback if Hurts can't go, which takes an important dimension out of the Eagles running game. Even if Hurts does play, we may not see the RPO plays and designed QB runs that we'd normally see because of the injury. 

Philadelphia could also be affected by the absence of Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson, who will miss the year's last two games with a groin injury. The Eagles still have a power-based offensive line led by Pro Bowl C Jason Kelce and Pro Bowl LG Landon Dickerson. 

What to Expect 

Nov 21, 2021; Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders (26) is stopped for a loss by the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY

The Eagles destroyed the Saints on the ground in the last two meetings between these teams, rushing for 246 yards during a 2020 win then 242 to fuel a 2021 rout. Hurts was a New Orleans nightmare in both contests, running for 106 yards in 2020 and 69 yards with 3 touchdowns last season. 

Dealing with a shoulder injury, Hurts may not be the running threat he normally is if he plays. The Saints will still have to deal with Miles Sanders, who rushed for 115 yards and two scores against them in 2020 and 94 yards in last year's win.

*UPDATE 12/30* Hurts is listed as DOUBTFUL for Sunday's game and Will Not Play according to team insiders.

New Orleans defensive tackles need to continue the momentum that they've played with the last few weeks. They'll need to penetrate the backfield, or at least stalemate Philadelphia blocking to prevent inside rushing lanes. 

Nov 21, 2021; Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle Jordan Mailata (68) blocks against New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport (92). Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Forcing Eagles runners to bounce plays outside will allow the Saints defensive ends to be a factor if they can win their matchups along the edge. It'll also give linebackers Davis and Elliss a precious extra second to close on the ball, especially with a free path if the line can tie up blockers. 

New Orleans must be disciplined in their assignments. Philadelphia ball carriers are terrific cutback runners and the team thrives on misdirection. 

The Saints accomplished none of this the last two times they've faced the Eagles and have struggled with it throughout much of the year. To pull off the upset, and keep slim playoff hopes alive, they'll need to reverse that trend on Sunday. 

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