Looking More Into the Saints Red Zone Struggles

When it all comes down to it, what does the data tell us about the Saints and their red zone struggles?

At 3-3, you might come to a lot of conclusions for a football team. Being even at .500 sounds good and actually looks good when it boils down to it in an early football season, but for the Saints, it feels pretty underwhelming.

If you have learned anything through the first stretch of the regular season, it's simply that the strength of schedule is a very false sense of security. Honestly, it's meaningless, and in some aspects it just makes the overall picture look even worse. 

The reality of the team's situation is that if they're 4-2 or 5-1 right now, no one cares about any of the things that are going on right now. You can play out all of the 'what if' scenarios. If some of the field goals are made, if they just convert a red zone here, if the defense did this, if the offense did that. The rabbit hole is endless.

What matters for New Orleans going forward and with 11 games left in the season is if they can first execute and then show that it can be consistent. Based off the film study against the Texans, there is promise and encouragement, although outside opinions do feel a lot more critical right now. If New Orleans is better in the red zone and hitting even half of their attempts right now, then they're in a good spot.

Putting the Red Zone Struggles In Perspective

Saints red zone execution from the past 5 years

This is where things start to go under the microscope for Pete Carmichael Jr. and the Saints offense. New Orleans is converting at just under 37% right now, which ranks 28th in the league. The Titans, Jets, Giants, and Steelers are the only teams worse than the Saints right now. The NFL average is converting at 53.27%, which is a -16.43% delta.

From a record perspective, throughout the first six games of the season sees New Orleans at 3-3. Past teams saw the 2022 squad at 2-4, while both the 2021 and 2020 Saints were 4-2. 2019 was the lone exception at 5-1. Coincidentally, 2019's struggles in the red zone didn't matter.

Derek Carr and The Red Zone

Derek Carr; Credit: USA TODAY SPORTS

So, that brings us to Derek Carr, as his stats have to come into focus here. The data in the red zone shows that he's 11/25 (44%) for 68 yards (2.7 yards/attempt) with 4 TDs and a sack. Comparing that to other quarterbacks there, most of the stats are middle of the road to towards the bottom. 

Nine quarterbacks have 30 attempts or more, while eight quarterbacks have 100 yards or more. Fifteen quarterbacks had 6 touchdowns or better, while three (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa) are at 10 or better. Here's a lot of comparisons for you in each category.

• Completions (11): Carr is tied with Jalen Hurts (PHI), Mac Jones (NE), Ryan Tannehill (TEN). The next tier with 12 completions includes Zach Wilson (NYJ), Baker Mayfield (TB), Jimmy Garoppolo (LV), Jared Goff (DET), and Sam Howell (WAS).
• Attempts (25): Carr is tied with Jalen Hurts (PHI) and Desmond Ridder (ATL). The next band would include Matthew Stafford (LAR) with 26, Josh Allen (BUF) and Brock Purdy (SF) with 29, and Joe Burrow (CIN) and Geno Smith (SEA) with 30.
• Completion Percentage (44%): Jalen Hurts (PHI) is tied with Carr, and the quarterbacks under 50% include Jordan Love at 48.4% (GB), Trevor Lawrence at 47.4% (JAC), and Bryce Young at 45.5% (CAR). Geno Smith at 43.3% (SEA) and C.J. Stroud at 41.7%) (HOU) are below Carr and the other quarterbacks at 40% or better. Twelve quarterbacks are between 50-59.9%.
• Yards (68): Gardner Minshew (IND) is ahead of Carr with 69 yards, and the band of quarterbacks in the 70-79 passing yards range includes Matthew Stafford (LAR) at 71, Lamar Jackson (BAL) and Zach Wilson (NYJ) with 73, and Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) with 79.
• TDs (4): The quarterbacks tied with Carr are Mac Jones (NE), Jared Goff (DET), Trevor Lawrence (JAC), and Matthew Stafford (LAR). Ahead of that group with 5 passing TDs would be Josh Dobbs (ARI), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Dak Prescott (DAL), Geno Smith (SEA), and Baker Mayfield (TB).

Just so everyone has the full picture, this is Derek Carr's overall stats and where they rank. Some of the stats aren't bad itself, comparatively speaking.

Derek Carr's stats, rankings, and performance in 2023

Saints Red Zone Drives

In summary, the Saints have had a possible 133 points with 19 trips to the red zone, but there's an end-of-game sequence against the Titans that I would throw out, so let's call it 18 valid trips that were worth 126 points. New Orleans turned in 73 points, producing a variance of 53 points.

Here's all the data and details for the Saints when they've been inside the opponent's 20-yard-line. When you see the trips and success rates, we're talking about touchdowns. This is all of the sequencing in each red zone trip, and I broke this down by each play. The play selections are 24 runs and 28 passes.

Week 1 - vs. Titans (1/4, Runs - 5, Passes - 7)

• 1-10-TEN 11 (11:13) J.Williams right guard to TEN 8 for 3 yards
  2-7-TEN 8 (10:32) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short right to M.Thomas.
  3-7-TEN 8 (10:25) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to M.Thomas. 4-7-TEN 8 (10:21) B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD,
• 3-1-TEN 19 (8:35) J.Williams left guard to TEN 14 for 5 yards
  1-10-TEN 14 (7:59) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short right to R.Shaheed. New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  2-10-TEN 14 (7:50) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to T.Hill.
  3-10-TEN 14 (7:45) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to M.Thomas (A.Key). Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  4-10-TEN 14 (7:40) B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD
• 2-7-TEN 19 (1:33) D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to K.Kirkwood
  3-7-TEN 19 (1:28) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass deep right to R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
• 3-4-TEN 20 (1:39) J.Williams right tackle to TEN 9 for 11 yards
  1-9-TEN 9 (:59) D.Carr kneels to TEN 11 for -2 yards
  2-11-TEN 11 (:35) D.Carr kneels to TEN 12 for -1 yards

Week 2 - at Panthers (2/4, Runs - 7, Passes - 7)

• 2-3-CAR 18 (2:30) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short left to M.Thomas pushed ob at CAR 14 for 4 yards
  1-10-CAR 14 (1:58) D.Carr pass short right to F.Moreau to CAR 8 for 6 yards
  2-4-CAR 8 (1:24) J.Williams right tackle to CAR 10 for -2 yards
  3-6-CAR 10 (:44) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short left
  4-6-CAR 10 (:39) B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD
• 1-4-CAR 4 (10:35) (Shotgun) T.Hill right end to CAR 5 for -1 yards
  2-5-CAR 5 (10:04) D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to C.Olave
  3-5-CAR 5 (9:59) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to T.Jones
  4-5-CAR 5 (9:55) B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD
• 1-10-CAR 16 (4:55) (Shotgun) T.Hill pass short right to J.Johnson to CAR 8 for 8 yards 
  2-2-CAR 8 (4:22) T.Jones right guard to CAR 7 for 1 yard 
  3-1-CAR 7 (3:39) T.Jones up the middle to CAR 2 for 5 yards
  1-2-CAR 2 (3:03) T.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN
• 1-10-CAR 16 (4:01) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short left to C.Olave for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short left to C.Olave pushed ob at CAR 7 for 9 yard
  2-1-CAR 7 (3:57) T.Hill up the middle to CAR 2 for 5 yards
  1-2-CAR 2 (3:18) T.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Week 3 - at Packers (1/2, Runs - 2, Passes - 4)

• 1-10-GB 13 (7:25) (Shotgun) T.Hill up the middle to GB 8 for 5 yards
  2-5-GB 8 (6:48) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to K.Kirkwood
  3-5-GB 8 (6:44) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short left to J.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN
• 1-7-GB 7 (:31) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short right to M.Thomas 
  2-7-GB 7 (:27) T.Jones left end to GB 7 for no gain 
  3-7-GB 7 (:14) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short right to C.Olave
  4-7-GB 7 (:10) B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD

Week 4 - vs. Bucs (0/2, Runs - 0, Passes - 3)

• 4-5-TB 19 (9:23) B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is GOOD
• 1-10-TB 19 (2:48) (Shotgun) T.Hill sacked at TB 22 for -3 yards
  2-13-TB 22 (2:09) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short right to C.Olave ran ob at TB 18 for 4 yards
  3-9-TB 18 (1:32) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short left to A.Kamara to TB 14 for 4 yards
  4-5-TB 14 (:52) B.Grupe 32 yard field goal is GOOD

Week 5 - at Patriots (3/3, Runs - 7, Passes - 3)

• 1-8-NE 8 (:24) (Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to NE 5 for 3 yards
  2-5-NE 5 (15:00) NO 7-Hill now at QB. (Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to NE 2 for 3 yards (Ja.Tavai).
  3-2-NE 2 (14:27) NO 4-Carr now at QB. M.Garcia reported in as eligible. A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN
• 2-3-NE 19 (12:06) NO 7-Hill now at QB. (Shotgun) T.Hill scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 7 for 12 yards
  1-7-NE 7 (11:28) NO 4-Carr now at QB. A.Kamara right guard to NE 5 for 2 yards
  2-5-NE 5 (10:53) D.Carr pass short middle to C.Olave for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
• 1-10-NE 19 (15:00) A.Kamara right guard to NE 19 for no gain
  2-10-NE 19 (14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Carr pass short right to A.Kamara to NE 7 for 12 yards
  1-7-NE 7 (13:46) NO 7-Hill now at QB. (Shotgun) T.Hill left tackle to NE 6 for 1 yard
  2-6-NE 6 (13:10) NO 4-Carr now at QB. (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short middle to F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN

Week 6 - at Texans (0/3, Runs - 3, Passes - 5)

• 2-12-HST 16 (2:51) (Shotgun) D.Carr sacked at HST 27 for -11 yards. Penalty on NO-T.Penning, Tripping, declined.
  3-23-HST 27 (2:25) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to R.Shaheed
  4-23-HST 27 (2:21) B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD
• 1-10-HST 13 (11:53) (Shotgun) T.Hill right guard to HST 11 for 2 yards
  2-8-HST 11 (11:20) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short right
  3-8-HST 11 (11:14) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to M.Thomas
  4-8-HST 11 (11:10) B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left
• 2-3-HST 14 (5:52) A.Kamara left tackle to HST 14 for no gain
  3-3-HST 14 (5:19) (Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to HST 15 for -1 yards
  4-4-HST 15 (4:37) (Shotgun) D.Carr pass short right to A.Kamara to HST 13 for 2 yards

Again, there is a lot of football left to play for New Orleans, and there's also a lot of questions to answer. The confidence levels are there from the players and coaches, and this boils down to execution and consistency. These next four games feature some very promising gifts, and Dennis Allen and company have to deliver in each of them. It starts with the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, and we hope to see some of the better execution start there.