Vikings vs. Colts Predictions: Who Wins This Week 15 Matchup?

The Vikings are just 3.5-point home favorites over the struggling Colts.

The Vikings are 10-3, currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and a win or a Lions loss away from clinching their division. They're back at home in Week 15 hosting a 4-8-1 Colts team that has arguably the league's worst offense and gave up 54 points to the Cowboys in its last game.

And yet, the Vikings are only favored by 3.5 points for this Saturday matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium. That's another good reminder of how Vegas feels about this Vikings team. The sportsbooks were vindicated last Sunday, when they had the Lions favored over the Vikings in what ended up as an 11-point Detroit victory.

All eyes will be on Minnesota's struggling, heavily-criticized defense in this game. They're looking to snap a franchise-worst streak of five straight games with at least 400 yards allowed, and the Colts present a perfect opportunity for them to do so. Indy's Matt Ryan-led offense has been one of the league's worst this season and leads the NFL in turnovers by a wide margin.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings will look to get Dalvin Cook and their running game going against a Colts defense that is quite good but is susceptible to the run. Oh, and superstar Justin Jefferson is 133 yards away from breaking Randy Moss's single-season Vikings record.

Who wins this one? Let's start with my prediction and then dive into some picks from national analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 27, Colts 20

2022 record: 9-4

This feels like a great bounce-back spot for the Vikings, who can clinch the NFC North with a win in front of their home fans. Minnesota is 6-1 at U.S. Bank Stadium this season, losing only to the Cowboys in blowout fashion. Kevin O'Connell's team is getting Christian Darrisaw, Harrison Smith, and possibly Garrett Bradbury back from injury this week, which will help. Jefferson will continue to dominate, Cook will get going, and the Vikings' defense will give up fewer than 400 yards. That's how I see this playing out, at least. Ryan is good for a turnover or two, and the Vikings will pull out a game that isn't quite as close as the final score indicates. I think.

National predictions

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Vikings 23, Colts 17

The Vikings being favored by just four points at home against the Colts is way more disrespectful than Minnesota being a road underdog in Detroit. While I've given up hope on the dull Vikings defense improving, Kirk Cousins provided optimism by authoring his best game of the season vs. the Lions. The No. 2 seed in the NFC is Minnesota's to lose with a favorable schedule down the stretch. 

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 30, Colts 24

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 30, Colts 17

It’s T-shirt and hat time for the Vikings. It’s “make plans for 2023” time for the Colts.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Vikings 28, Colts 14

The Vikings aren’t as good as their 10-3 record suggests, but they are good enough that they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Colts.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 28, Colts 14

The Colts are coming off a bye, while the Vikings are coming off a road loss. The Colts offense has struggled in a big way this season, but the Minnesota defense has as well. But I give the Minnesota front an edge over the Colts offensive line. Look for the Vikings to bounce back here as the defense plays better. 

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Vikings 31, Colts 28

The Vikings' 32nd-ranked defense will struggle, per usual, but the Purple Panic in streets will subside a little bit because Colts quarterback/turnover machine Matt Ryan is the gift that keeps on giving in times like these.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 30, Colts 20

The Vikings got more heat for being a flimsy 10-win team with their significant loss to the Lions in Detroit. They will rebound to take care of the division title in an impressive offensive-minded first season under Kevin O'Connell. They can contain Jonathan Taylor and get good pressure on Matt Ryan. The Colts' defense can keep them in the game, but Justin Jefferson will open things up elsewhere on the field for Kirk Cousins.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Vikings 30, Colts 23

Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 34, Colts 24

What to watch for:

The Vikings are 4-0 against AFC teams this season via their sweep of the AFC East, a sneaky-impressive reason they're on the cusp of the NFC North title. They'll clinch the division with a win over the Colts. The Colts are 0-3 against the NFC this season and, with a 42.9 team QBR — the ninth-lowest in the NFL — do not appear equipped to capitalize on the Vikings' struggling pass defense. —

 Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction:

The Colts will limit

Justin Jefferson

to fewer than 100 receiving yards. Yes, Jefferson has eclipsed 100 yards in eight of 13 games this season. And, yes, he had a 223-yard performance against the Lions last Sunday. But Indianapolis, largely because of the play of veteran cornerback

Stephon Gilmore

, has allowed just two 100-yard individual efforts this season (from

Terry McLaurin

and

Davante Adams

). —

 Stephen Holder

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.