SI:AM | An Unlikely Pair of World Cup Semifinals

Plus, remembering Mike Leach.

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Too bad there are only two more World Cup games played during my work days.

In today’s SI:AM:

🖤 Remembering Mississippi State coach Mike Leach

🏈 Zack Martin’s secret to avoiding holding calls

⚽ Messi vs. Modrić

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The World Cup final is within reach

When I mentioned “the unpredictable nature of knockout soccer” in Friday’s newsletter, I didn’t think it would be this unpredictable.

The quarterfinals saw two unlikely underdogs advance as Croatia outlasted Brazil on penalties and Morocco beat Portugal. They’ll join two pre-tournament favorites (France and Argentina) in the semifinals, which start today at 2 p.m. ET with Croatia vs. Argentina. (France and Morocco play tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET.)

There is no shortage of story lines in the semis. You have France looking to repeat as men’s World Cup champions, which hasn’t been done since Brazil did it in 1962. Argentina is hoping to give Lionel Messi his first World Cup win in what will likely be his final tournament. Croatia is seeking a return to the final as it hopes to prove it belongs in the upper tier of European sides. Morocco’s story is still being written, having already made history as the first African side to reach the semifinals.

Croatia vs. Argentina

Much has been made of this tournament probably being the last time we see Lionel Messi play at a World Cup—and with good reason. Messi, 35, is an all-time great—maybe even the all-time great—and it would be a shame if he ended his career without earning the biggest international team honor. But at the same time, this is likely the end of 37-year-old Luka Modrić’s World Cup career, as well. Modrić isn’t quite on Messi’s level (no one is) but he’s among the best of his generation. He anchored the midfield for Real Madrid teams that won three La Liga championships and five Champions League titles. Now he’s led Croatia—a country of just under four million people—back to the World Cup semifinals for the second time in a row.

Modrić and his teammates have to be gassed after Croatia needed extra time (and penalties) to win both knockout-round matches. Eight Croatian players, including Modrić, are averaging more than 90 minutes played per game and four (goalkeeper Dominik Livaković and defenders Joško Gvardiol, Josip Juranović and Dejan Lovren) have played every minute of Croatia’s five games. The good news for Croatia is that Argentina will also come into this game fighting fatigue after being taken to penalties by the Netherlands in the last round. Croatia’s advancing would be an upset, but not totally out of nowhere. The nation has proved over the past several years that it can compete like a much bigger country. That won’t be any consolation for Messi and Argentina if they lose, though.

France vs. Morocco

Morocco will face its toughest test yet in the semis. After shocking Spain and Portugal in the first two knockout rounds, the Atlas Lions have France standing between them and a berth in the World Cup final. Morocco has grinded out every match at this World Cup and emerged unbeaten. It has not had more than 42% of the possession in any of its five matches in Qatar, but its defense has stood tall, allowing just one goal (an own goal against Canada) all tournament. The French attack will be unlike anything Morocco has faced thus far, though. Between Kylian Mbappé (five goals in Qatar) and Olivier Giroud (four goals), France has two elite scoring threats who will challenge that stout Moroccan defense. Morocco has established stars itself in right back Achraf Hakimi, winger Hakim Ziyech and midfielder Sofyan Amrabat, but the issue is that France has a squad full of them. On paper, there’s a talent gap, but the same could be said for Morocco’s previous two matches, so it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of another upset.

The best of Sports Illustrated

Darren Carroll/Sports Illustrated

In today’s Daily Cover, Alex Prewitt explores how Cowboys guard Zack Martin has made seven Pro Bowls while hardly getting called for any holding penalties:

Last year alone, 26 offensive linemen finished with at least four accepted holds, among them Browns guard Wyatt Teller and Niners tackle Trent Williams, both universally recognized as being among the league’s elite. By contrast, entering 2022, Martin boasted just one holding penalty on his record—not counting another that was declined—since the start of the ’17 season, a span of more than 5,300 offensive and special teams snaps including the playoffs. (During that time he also made four Pro Bowls, most recently last year alongside Teller and Williams).

• Ross Dellenger reflects on the legacy of Mike Leach, the college football innovator who died last night after being hospitalized Sunday with a heart issue.
• In signing Chris Bassitt, the Blue Jays added stability to a shaky starting rotation, Tom Verducci writes.
• Marcus Krum has a list of World Cup breakout stars who could be hot commodities when the transfer window opens in January.
• Emma Baccellieri believes the Brewers were the big winner in yesterday’s three-way trade that also involved the Braves and A’s.

The top five...

… things I saw last night:

5. The Spurs’ game-winning defensive stand against the Cavs.

4. Evgeni Malkin’s game-winning goal with 35 seconds left.

3. Damian Lillard’s 11 three-pointers against the Timberwolves. (That tied his own franchise record, but he sat out the fourth quarter of the blowout win.)

2. The Rangers’ two goals in seven seconds to tie the game against the Devils. (New York went on to win in overtime.)

1. DeAndre Hopkins’s amazing catch that sadly didn’t count.

SIQ

Though he would never play a game in a different uniform, which team did the Dodgers trade Jackie Robinson to on this day in 1956?

• Cardinals
• Reds
• Cubs
• Giants

Yesterday’s SIQ: Which major rule change was implemented at baseball’s winter meetings on Dec. 12, 1930?

• The height of the pitcher’s mound was standardized.
• A ball bouncing over the outfield wall would no longer be a home run.
• The strike zone was defined as extending from the armpits to the bottom of the knees.
• The spitball was outlawed

Answer: A ball bouncing over the outfield wall would no longer be a home run. Isn’t that incredible? Until the 1931 season, a ball could land in play and still be a homer.

It’s not surprising, in a sport where a ball caught on one bounce used to be considered an out, that during the game’s early days a ball bouncing over the wall could be considered a home run. But for the rule to last as long as it did? That’s odd. The rule calling a batter out if a foul ball was caught on the bounce was eliminated in 1882. It’s stunning that the bounce home run rule lasted until more than a decade after World War I. That means Babe Ruth played the majority of his career when today’s automatic doubles counted as a homer.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. How many of Ruth’s 714 home runs didn’t clear the wall on the fly? According to MLB.com, it’s unclear how many of his homers fall into that category. But at the same time, Ruth also played when balls that hit the foul pole were called doubles instead of homers, so we’ll say it’s a wash.

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