March Madness First Four Bets: Notre Dame vs. Rutgers, Bryant vs. Wright State

Bets and analysis for Wednesday’s games, which will round our the field of 64.

The NCAA men’s tournament got underway Tuesday evening with the first two First Four games. And the action in Dayton continues Wednesday night.

The No. 16 seed in the South is on the line between Bryant and Wright State, the winner of which plays No. 1 Arizona. Expect fireworks in that matchup, which features the nation’s leading scorer, Peter Kiss. And in the West region, No. 12 is up for grabs between Notre Dame and Rutgers. The winner of that game gets No. 6 Alabama in the Round of 64.

Tuesday’s picks went O.K.: I went 2/4 and Frankie Taddeo went 1/1. Here’s to some winning bets.

No. 16 Bryant (22–9) vs. No. 16 Wright State (21–13)

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV
Spread: Bryant +2.5 (-110) | Wright State -2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Bryant (+125) | Wright State (-161)
Over/Under: Under 154.5 (-110) | Over 154.5 (-118)

The Bulldogs enter the First Four on a roll. They’ve won seven in a row and 16 of their last 17, including a 70-43 Northeast Conference Championship win. The Raiders are also hot—they’re winners of five in a row and fresh off a 72-71 Horizon League title game win.

Bryant senior guard Peter Kiss leads the nation in scoring at 25.1 ppg. Kiss, who scored 34 of his team’s 70 points last time out, has hit the 30-point mark 10 times this season. He’s not a sniper from outside, shooting below 30% from the arc, but some of his teammates—guards Charles Pride and and Adham Eleede—are more reliable three-point shooters. Pride averages 18 ppg, which would lead many DI teams, and has a season-high of 44 points this season.

The Bulldogs average 77.9 ppg and have the No. 154 offense on KenPom. They’re third in the nation in rebounding despite no player on the roster being above 6’8” but turnovers (13.9 per game) and defense (218 on KenPom) are significant weaknesses for Bryant.

Luckily for Wright State, it has a pair of scorers who can hang with Bryant’s. Guard Tanner Holden averages a hair under 20 ppg and forward Grant Basile isn’t far behind at 18.5 ppg. Holden and Basile combine to average more than half of the team’s 76.6 scoring average. The Raiders’ offense is ranked just outside the top 100 on KenPom. Their elite shooting percentages certainly help that cause—they shoot 46.5% as a team, the 50th-best clip in the country, and their 76.8% average at the free-throw line is 20th-best.

The Raiders’ defense is the lowest ranked on KenPom (261) in the Field of 68. That’s particularly relevant against a team with a scorer like Kiss.

I’m going with Bryant in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Bulldogs have the No. 7 adjusted Tempo on KenPom and they should be able to take advantage of Wright State’s spotty defense and get up and down the court and score with ease. This total is pretty steep, but I don’t anticipate much defense being played on either side, so I’m confident in the over.

BET: Bryant +2.5, Over 154.5

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Notre Dame (22–10) vs. No. 11 Rutgers (18–13)

Time: 9:10 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Notre Dame -1 (-110) | Rutgers +1 (-118)
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-118) | Rutgers (-110)
Over/Under: Under 134 (-110) | Over 134 (-118)

The Fighting Irish didn’t do themselves any favors in the ACC tournament by losing their first game. They did fall to eventual champion Virginia Tech, though, and now draw a battle-tested Rutgers team that also went one and done in its conference tournament. The Scarlet Knights lost four of their last six games heading into Wednesday. Granted, three were against top 25 opponents in the deep Big Ten.Notre Dame’s offense doesn’t come across as overly intimidating, averaging just 72.5 ppg, but it’s among the most efficient in the country. Led by guards Blake Wesley (14.6 ppg) and Dane Goodwin (13.9 ppg), the Fighting Irish are No. 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom and have strong field-goal (46.2), three-point (38.0) and free-throw (75.8) percentages. They’ve thrown together some high totals as of late: 90 against Georgia Tech four games ago and 99 against Boston College three games before that.

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Notre Dame’s offense doesn’t come across as overly intimidating, averaging just 72.5 ppg, but it’s among the most efficient in the country. Led by guards Blake Wesley (14.6 ppg) and Dane Goodwin (13.9 ppg), the Fighting Irish are No. 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom and have strong field-goal (46.2), three-point (38.0) and free-throw (75.8) percentages. They’ve thrown together some high totals as of late: 90 against Georgia Tech four games ago and 99 against Boston College three games before that.

ND has to score plenty to outscore its opponents with a suspect defense. It ranks 83rd on KenPom, doesn’t rack up steals or blocks and just gave up 87 points to Virginia Tech and allowed 95 points in that game against BC.

The Scarlet Knights aren't known for beating down opponents with high-scoring outings either. They average 67.9 ppg and rank outside the top 100 offenses on KenPom. They have a trio of capable scorers in Ron Harper Jr. (15.6 ppg), Geo Baker (12.4 ppg) and Clifford Omoruyi (11.8 ppg) but they don’t get much outside help. The ball moves well, though, as the team averages 15 assists per game, led by Paul Mulcahy’s 5.3 dimes.

Rutgers relies on its defense, ranked 42nd on KenPom, to keep their opponents under 70 points. That’s how it defeated four ranked opponents in a row in early February; none scored more than 65 points.

I like the Scarlet Knights to win a tight, low-scoring outing over the Irish. The 1.5 points is nice insurance, though. A game with final scores in the 50s or 60s favors Rutgers and both teams have exceptionally slow tempos, which bodes well for this game staying under the projected total. If the Scarlet Knights can prevent ND from having a 20-point scorer or getting hot from outside, this is their game.

BET: Rutgers +1, Under 134

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