Which March Madness No. 1 Seed Should You Bet Against?

Predicting when and why the first top seed will fall in the men’s NCAA Tournament.

Picking the right upsets is the best and most difficult part of filling out a March Madness bracket, and there’s no bigger upset than a No. 1 seed losing.

No. 1 Virginia losing to No. 16 UMBC in the first round in 2018 will forever be historic, but what happened the other 143 times No. 1 and No. 16 seeds clashed? The 1s won.

Unsurprisingly, the top-seeded teams have an excellent track record of making it far in the tournament. In fact, the past four national champions were No. 1 seeds: Baylor (2021), Virginia (2019), Villanova (2018) and North Carolina (2017).

All that said, one No. 1 seed has to fall first unless all four make it to the Final Four, which has only happened once in tournament history in 2008. Three No. 1 seeds have won their region and made it to the Final Four five times.

So of Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor and Kansas, which No. 1 should you fade?

The short answer: Baylor. The long answer: Well, let’s get into the who, why and, most importantly, when the defending champs will fall?

Who?

Which contenders stand in Baylor's way in the East? For starters, No. 2 Kentucky has better odds to win the national championship in New Orleans (+600) than the Bears do (+1200).

A potential Baylor-UK matchup wouldn't occur until the Elite Eight, so let's backtrack to the Round of 32. (For the purpose of this exercise, we're putting all the No. 1 seeds through the first round, sorry Norfolk State.) Awaiting the Bears in the Round of 32 is the winner of No. 8 North Carolina and No. 9 Marquette. UNC beat No. 2 Duke a few short weeks ago and is better than a typical No. 8 seed. The Golden Eagles sputtered toward the end of the season, but they beat No. 2 Villanova twice and have six top-25 wins.

Say Baylor advances to the Sweet 16, which is likely enough given their track record; two more giant-killers likely await No. 4 UCLA or No. 5 Saint Mary's. The Bruins beat No. 1 Arizona once this season (in three tries), and the Gaels took down No. 1 Gonzaga a few weeks back.

An Elite Eight matchup probably includes either Kentucky or No. 3 Purdue, and if Baylor does advance to the Final Four, it can expect to see top-seeded Gonzaga, Duke or No. 3 Texas Tech, which swept the Bears in the regular season. The path to New Orleans and back to the national championship will not be easy.

Why?

March Madness is predicated on precedent. No. 16 seeds never beat No. 1 seeds. A No. 12 seed almost always beats a No. 5. It's almost as much about the numbers next to the teams as the players that make them up when it comes to simply penciling-in results.

Well, about that precedent… There hasn't been a repeat champion since Florida won the national title in 2006 and 2007. And the last four defending champions haven't even made it to the Sweet 16 in the following year.

And the Bears lost a lot of top-end production from their title team. Guards and leading scorers Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell departed for the NBA. The 2021-22 team, which won a share of the regular-season Big 12 Title, also lost two important players to injury: elite shooter LJ Cryer and big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, the team's top rebounder.

What’s more, ESPN pointed out that losing the first game of the conference tournament has been a death knell for teams' title hopes. "No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament," writes Keith Lipscomb. This year, the teams that fit that criteria are Baylor, No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Wisconsin, and No. 4 Illinois.

The Bears lost 72-67 to Oklahoma, which missed the NCAA Tournament altogether, in the Big 12 quarterfinal.

When?

This is what matters. Picking the field vs. Baylor is easy enough, but when will the Bears lose and will that be before Gonzaga, Arizona, or Kansas does?

My colleague Jen Piacenti wrote about how you can use futures odds to your advantage in your March Madness picks, which I'm about to employ here.

Gonzaga is the heaviest favorite to make the Sweet 16 (-752). Arizona is also minus money to win the first two rounds (-500). Kentucky (-400) has the third-best odds to make the Sweet 16, better than Baylor (-345), even though UK is the No. 2 seed in its region.

Kansas (-300) has the worst odds of the No. 1 seeds to make the Sweet 16, meaning oddsmakers think the Jayhawks are likely to have more trouble with No. 8 San Diego State (which the Ken Pom numbers adore) or No. 9 Creighton than the other No. 1 seeds will face in the second round.

Unsurprisingly, Gonzaga also has the best odds to make the Elite Eight (-568), and you’re probably sensing a theme by now—they’re overwhelming title favorites. You’re also getting negative odds on Arizona (-125) to make it there. But after those two, Kansas, Baylor, Kentucky and Auburn are all tied (+100).

When it comes to Final Four odds, the books are out on Baylor (+275). Five teams have better odds to win their region than the Bears: Gonzaga (-150), Arizona (+140), Kansas (+188), Auburn (+250) and Kentucky (+250).

The Wildcats are the favorite to win the East, and they have an easier path to the Elite Eight than the Bears do.

I’d bet on Baylor to fall in the Elite Eight to Kentucky and Gonzaga and Kansas to represent their regions in the Final Four. I don’t know about Arizona’s potential Elite Eight matchup with No. 3 Tennessee. But the Bears could very well fall in the Sweet 16 against UCLA, which is +150 to advance to the second weekend.

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