Hawks-Cavaliers, Pelicans-Clippers NBA Play-In Tournament Bets

Bets and analysis for Friday’s play-in tournament games for the 8-seeds between the Hawks and Cavaliers and Pelicans and Clippers.

Only two spots remain in the NBA playoff field and they’ll be awarded to the winners of Friday’s play-in tournament games.

The battle for the 8-seed in the East comes down to the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta beat Charlotte on Wednesday to stay alive and now travels to Cleveland, which lost to the Nets on Tuesday but gets another chance to earn a spot in the postseason. The winner will play the No. 1 Heat with that series tipping off Sunday afternoon.

In the Western Conference, the Pelicans and Clippers will meet in Los Angeles. New Orleans got by San Antonio to set up a meeting with L.A., which blew a lead against Minnesota. The reward for earning the 8-seed is a first-round matchup with the best team in the NBA: the Suns. That series gets underway Sunday night.

Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in record: 2-4

Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook

John Bazemore/AP

No. 9 Atlanta Hawks (43-39) vs. No. 8 Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Hawks -2.5 (-110) | Cavaliers +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks (-138) | Cavaliers (+115)
Total: Under 223.5 (-110) | Over 223.5 (-110)

That the Hawks are road favorites tells you all you need to know about this game.

Atlanta embarrassed Charlotte at home Wednesday night, 132-103, thanks to a blistering offensive performance and surprisingly stout defense.

Trae Young shot just 8-24 and the Hawks still shot 50% or better from the field and from three-point land (16-32). The Hornets were held to their fewest points since March 9 and LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier shot a combined 15-47.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, won the final three quarters against the Nets after being outscored 40-20 in the opening 12 minutes. That wasn’t enough to comeback from that initial onslaught and Cleveland lost, 115-108. Darius Garland matched Kyrie Irving with 34 points and rookie Evan Mobley added 19. It was clear the Cavs needed Jarrett Allen, their All-Star big man, who reportedly will attempt to play.

The Hawks took the season series, 3-1. After dropping the first meeting in October, Atlanta won the next three, including a 131-107 victory two weeks ago at home. Young had 30 points and nine assists in that game and he’s thrived against the Cavaliers this season, scoring 41 against Cleveland in February and 35 in late January.

It will be important for the Cavaliers to limit the Hawks on the perimeter. A big reason Cleveland stayed in the game against Brooklyn was the Nets finished just 9-28 on three-point tries. Atlanta hit 10, 16, 14 and 17 threes in the regular season against the Cavs, who have a league-average three-point defense.

Cleveland very clearly needs more from its guards not named Garland. Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert and Cedi Osman shot a combined 4-19 to total just 19 points.

Really, the Cavaliers need respectable contributions from its backcourt on both sides of the ball and Allen to play and play well. Bruce Brown destroyed the back line of Cleveland’s defense from the free-throw line and Young is a much more capable passer and finisher from that spot. The 6’10” Allen could serve as a deterrent and the Cavaliers need him to fight with Clint Capela on the glass. The Hawks’ big man swallowed up 17 rebounds against the Hornets on Wednesday.

I’m confidently picking the Hawks.

Young isn’t one to follow up a subpar game with a similar performance, especially on a stage like this with the stakes what they are. Plus he’s gotten the best of the Cavs all season. Winning on the road has been a struggle for Atlanta, though. The team lost its last nine away games against playoff or play-in teams dating to February. I think the Hawks buck that trend in Cleveland, where they already won once this season.

BET: Hawks -2.5 (-110)

Gerald Herbert/AP

No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans (36-46) vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)

Time: 10 p.m. | TNT
Spread: Pelicans +1.5 (+130) | Clippers -1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: Pelicans (+145) | Clippers (-175)
Total: Under 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)

A trademark Clippers collapse has the semi-popular sleeper choice on the verge of an early trip to Cancun. L.A. had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Timberwolves on Tuesday night and squandered it. Now, it has to play a Pelicans team that looked dangerous in its win Wednesday night against the Spurs.

New Orleans got a game-high 32 points from C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram added 27 after he missed the final three games of the regular season and Jonas Valanciunas grabbed 14 boards to go with his 22 points. Overall, it was a solid, 113-103 win for the Pelicans without Zion Williamson.

The season series went to New Orleans, 3-1. The Clippers won the most recent meeting on April 3, 119-100. L.A. drained a whopping 21 threes that night to down New Orleans. The Pelicans won the other three games by an average of 16.7 points.

The massive rebounding advantage New Orleans has over L.A. showed up in each meeting. The Clippers were outrebounded by 10-plus boards in each game. The Pelicans are No. 3 in the NBA in opponents’ rebounds and the Clippers rank 28th. The combo of Valanciunas and Hayes inside along with long wings like Ingram and Herb Jones did well to neutralize Ty Lue’s smaller lineups.

The Clippers have three primary things going for them against the Pelicans. L.A. is an elite shooting team, a much-better defensive team than NOLA, oh, and they have Paul George. The All-NBA forward went for a game-high 34 points against the Timberwolves, including six threes. He did, however, struggle against the Pelicans in the regular season: 20.5 ppg on 38% shooting, both well below his season averages. That can’t persist in this game if L.A. is going to grab the 8-seed.

These could be some famous last words, but I trust the Clippers. Lue should scheme a strategy to get George some easy looks and bother Valanciunas in the same way the defense hounded Karl-Anthony Towns. Plus, McCollum has his own struggles against the Clippers to overcome (16.5 ppg this season on 39% shooting across four games). That puts more pressure on Ingram and George has the clear advantage if it comes down to those two. And accounting for homecourt, where the Clippers went 25-16 and the Pelicans were 17-24 on the road, L.A. should win and cover this small spread.

BET: Clippers -1.5 (-154)

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