NBA Championship Futures Odds: Warriors, Celtics Favorites to Meet in Finals

The Warriors are the favorites to win the NBA championship after their Round 1 performance against Denver, and the Celtics and Suns aren’t far behind.

The dust is beginning to settle on a wild first round of the NBA playoffs.

Four of the eight semifinal teams are set; four opening-round series remain to be decided.

So far, in the East, the No. 1 Heat, No. 2 Celtics, and No. 3 Bucks have made it to the second round. Miami is still awaiting its opponent—the winner of the series between the No. 4 76ers and No. 5 Raptors, which Philadelphia leads, 3-2—and Boston and Milwaukee will face one another.

And out West, the No. 3 Warriors stand alone as the only team in the conference to declare victory over its Round 1 opponent. Golden State will play the winner of the No. 2 Grizzlies and No. 7 Timberwolves (Memphis leads, 3-2). And the other second-round matchup will be between the winner of the No. 1 Suns-No. 8 Pelicans series and the No. 4 Mavericks-No. 5 Jazz series. Phoenix and Dallas lead their respective series, 3-2.

The postseason is nearly two weeks old, and there's plenty to digest as we prepare for the second round. There's performance to consider—Miami dominated its series with Atlanta while Philadelphia has struggled to close out Toronto after mounting a 3-2 lead—and a litany of injuries to factor in.

For starters, there’s Devin Booker (hamstring), Khris Middleton (MCL), Jimmy Butler (knee), Kyle Lowry (hamstring) and Fred VanVleet (hip) all of whom have missed at least one game for their teams in the postseason already. Then there are cases like Luka Dončić (calf), who returned in Game 4 and has looked like himself, and Donovan Mitchell (quad), who will reportedly play in Game 6 after exiting Game 5 early.

Let's dive deep into three of the remaining 10 teams and see how they could win it all and what would make them come up short in their title quest.

Check the Latest NBA Odds and Spreads at SI Sportsbook

Warriors +320
Celtics +350
Suns +400
Heat +600
Bucks +700
Grizzlies +1000
76ers +1600
Mavericks +1600
Jazz +6600
Raptors +12500

(Odds updated as of April 28)

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The Favorite: Warriors +300

The injured Suns having unforeseen trouble against the Pelicans and the Warriors looking utterly dominant in a 4-1 series win against the Nuggets has Golden State as the new title favorites.

The Dubs have the No. 1 offensive rating in the playoffs and the No. 3 net rating. Steph Curry heads off Golden State’s electric offense, which is also No. 1 in playoff points per game (118) and tied for first in three-pointers per game (15.2). Curry started his first game of the postseason in Game 5 after working his way off the bench for the first four while recovering from a foot injury. He wasn't on a minutes restriction in the closeout game and went for 30 points, his third 30-point game of the series.

Curry led the team in scoring in Games 2-5, but breakout star Jordan Poole led the way in Game 1 with 30 points. Poole, a third-year pro out of Michigan, joined the Splash Bros in the Nuggets series—he, Curry and Klay Thompson all averaged better than 20 PPG, and three made threes. The Warriors got all the assistance they needed from their role players, like Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr., and of course, Draymond Green did Draymond Green things. Golden State's do-it-all forward averaged 9.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and a team-best 7.4 assists in Round 1 while playing bothersome defense on Nikola Jokic.

The biggest—and really only—weakness the Warriors showed in the opening round was on the glass. They were outrebounded by the Nuggets, which was a welcome tradeoff in exchange for going small with Green or Porter Jr. as the biggest players on the floor. Kerr was able to keep Kevon Looney on the bench for much of the series. That might not be the case against a bigger team with multiple forwards and centers to worry about, such as Memphis, which beat Golden State three out of four times in the regular season. I don't love the Warriors' odds as the favorites. Hopefully, if you're in on Golden State, you got them with longer odds. They were +900 before the playoffs began.

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Value Bet: Heat +550

The Heat could have pointed to injuries to Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry and allowed the Hawks to make it a series. Instead, they shut the door on Atlanta, shut down Trae Young and got important contributions from lesser-used players, like Victor Oladipo, in their 4-1 win.

In the playoffs, Miami has the No. 2 defensive rating and the No. 2 net rating. Young was held to 15.4 PPG and as many assists per game (six) as turnovers. The Hawks had the second-best offense in the regular season. That fell to 15th in the postseason. Erik Spoelstra has plenty of good defenders on the team with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker, but it was Gabe Vincent who hounded Young on the perimeter and Miami's switchability proved too much to handle.

Offensive contributions came from all over as Spoelstra was able to dip deep into his rotation for scoring. Butler went nuclear in the series; he went for 45 in Game 2 and averaged 30 across the four games he played. Tyler Herro and Adebayo fell well short of their regular-season scoring averages against Atlanta, but players like Duncan Robinson, Oladipo and Max Strus elevated their games.

The Heat defense on Young should scare everyone, but their potential upcoming opponents—Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Boston—all rely on forwards and centers for the bulk of their offense, not 6'1" slight guards. Adebayo, Tucker, and Dewayne Dedmon will have their hands full with Joel Embiid next round if the 76ers get past the Raptors, but the path to the Eastern Conference Finals seems open for Miami given Philly's lackluster play and Embiid's thumb injury. So long as Butler can continue the level of play that got the Heat to the Finals two seasons ago and the team can bank on a Herro game here or there, I like Miami's odds.

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Sleeper Pick: Mavericks +1600

The Mavericks aren't even through to the second round yet, so get them at this price while you can. Dallas played inspired basketball for Games 1-3 against the Jazz sans Luka Dončić and won the latter two before its All-Star returned. Once back in the lineup, all Dončić has done is post a pair of 30-point double-doubles and contribute to one of the most one-sided games of the playoffs: a 102-77 Game 5 win against Utah.

Defense and three-point shooting will get the Mavericks through this series, which they lead 3-2. Those hallmarks are a bit surprising for a team built around Dončić, who's not known for his prowess on defense or high-percentage outside shooting (he shot a career-best 35.3% this season). But Jason Kidd assembled competent defenders and shooters around one of the most ball-dominant and talented players in basketball. And even without Dončić, Jalen Brunson could step in and run the offense. His ascension in the playoffs has been a wonder to watch. He averaged a career-best 16.3 PPG in the regular season, and his playoff scoring average is up to 28.3 PPG, including a 41-point game.

As long as Dallas keeps up its hot shooting from outside, it has a chance against any team in this field. The Mavericks are tied with the Warriors for the most threes made per game (15.2) in the playoffs and connected on 22 in Game 2.

If the Suns get through their series with the Pelicans, Devin Booker will be back for Round 2, if not for Game 6 or 7 of the opening round. So the hope of getting a weakened Phoenix team for Dallas might not come to fruition. Still, there's a chance the Mavericks avoid the Suns altogether if New Orleans pulls off the 1-8 upset. And not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but Dallas won the regular-season series against Golden State, 3-1. Dončić has shown he can be the best player for a round the last two years against the Clippers—now he has the right players around him, and the Mavericks are primed for a run.