76ers-Heat, Mavericks-Suns Game 5 NBA Playoffs Semifinals Bets, Odds, Lines and Props

Bets and analysis for Tuesday’s Game 5s featuring the Suns hosting the Mavericks and the Heat welcoming the 76ers. Each series is tied, 2-2.

The 76ers-Heat and Mavericks-Suns series will both go at least six games after Philadelphia and Dallas scored two huge home wins over the weekend. Now, both series, tied 2-2, pick back up Tuesday night with a pair of pivotal Game 5s.

Each team has taken care of home court so far, with no games stolen—yet. See how each series is unfolding and how you should bet these games.

Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 47-47

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Matt Slocum/AP

No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 1 Miami Heat (Series tied, 2-2)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: 76ers +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers (+130) | Heat (-154)
Total: Under 209.5 (-110) | Over 209.5 (-110)

The Heat defended home court in Games 1 and 2. They outrebounded and outshot the Joel Embiid-less 76ers on the floor on which they won a conference-best 29 games in the regular season. This 76ers team heading back to Miami looks a lot better than it did early in the series—Embiid is back in the starting lineup, James Harden finally broke out last game and the entire team is shooting much better from arc. The onus is on the Heat to take control in a pivotal Game 5.

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Jimmy Butler is far and away the best Heat player in the series. His scoring increased in each game, from 15 to 22 to 33 to 40. Butler’s low-scoring outings came in games when his teammates did show up—Tyler Herro had 25 to lead the team in Game 1 and Bam Adebayo had a team-best 23 in Game 2. Butler assumed the scoring burden essentially all by himself in Games 3 and 4.

Beyond the lack of impact secondary scoring, Miami, the best regular-season three-point shooting team, cannot seem to buy an outside shoot. The Heat shot 14-65 in the two games in Philadelphia, which may motivate Erik Spoelstra to play the sharpshooting Duncan Robinson. Point guard Kyle Lowry, who returned in Game 3, is out Tuesday. He has not been himself since injuring his hamstring against the Hawks.

Philadelphia channeled its full potential on offense and then defense in Games 3 and 4. The 76ers, in Embiid’s return, held the Heat to 79 points on 35% shooting in a 20-point win. Then, they turned around and blitzed Miami on offense. Harden led the team with 31 points, Embiid added 24 and the rest of the starters (Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey) all finished in double figures. The Sixers will have to steal a game to take the series. If it’s Tuesday’s Game 5, that will put them in the driver’s seat. But if they lose they’ll have to win two in a row, including a potential Game 7 in Miami.

As much as I want to pick the 76ers after seeing the Harden-Embiid partnership fully realized in Game 4, I’m going with the Heat. Spoelstra’s decision to keep his best shooter on the bench is confounding, though I think he makes the adjustments necessary for a win. Maybe that's sacrificing some defense for shooting. One would think Miami can’t shoot any worse than it did in Philadelphia, another positive working in its favor.

This game will be closer than the first two at FTX Arena, but as long as one of Butler’s teammates comes along for the ride with him, I think the Heat cover this one.

BETS: Heat -3.5 (-110); James Harden Over 20.5 Points (-110); Jimmy Butler Over 25.5 Points (-106)

Tony Gutierrez/AP

No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 1 Phoenix Suns (Series tied, 2-2)

Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-118) | Suns -6.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+225) | Suns (-275)
Total: Under 213.5 (-110) | Over 213.5 (-110)

Just like the Heat-76ers series, the home team has won each of the first four games in Mavericks-Suns. Phoenix scored convincing wins in Games 1 and 2 by seven and 20 points. It didn’t even matter that Luka Dončić was averaging 40 ppg at that point because the Suns’ offense was averaging 125 ppg. Dallas couldn’t keep up, so they slowed Phoenix down. The Suns averaged 97.5 ppg in two losses in Texas, and Chris Paul’s lackluster play is at least partially to blame for the offensive collapse.

Paul was phenomenal in the first two games of the series and then came undone in Dallas. He finished with 12 points and seven turnovers in Game 3 and then fouled out in Game 4 with just five points. Devin Booker scored a game-high 35 points Sunday and it wasn’t enough because Paul, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges combined for just 25 points. And the Suns haven’t gotten much off the bench either—Cam Payne and Landry Shamet have shot poorly in spot minutes this postseason.

As for Dallas, its two wins weren’t direct results of Dončić scorching Phoenix, like he did in the first two games. Rather, better defense and the reemergence of Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith allowed the Mavericks to even things up. Brunson had 22 points total in Games 1 and 2 and then went for 28 and 18 in the next two games. Finney-Smith then hit 12 threes across the two games in Dallas with Dončić distributing the ball at will. The Mavs lead the playoffs in threes made per game (15.9) by a wide margin. Even in their losses, they hit plenty of threes. It’s the true combination of three-and-D ball that has led to Dallas wins.

I don’t think the Suns get stifled on offense at home the way they did on the road. Phoenix lost nine regular-season games in the desert and is 4-1 in the postseason. The bounceback is tied to Paul’s play. If he’s connecting from midrange, drawing fouls and running the offense the way only he can, it’s tough for any team to contend with. If he’s throw off his spots and Dallas continues to destroy Phoenix from outside, this could be an upset in the making. It still might be, but I believe in Paul, Booker and Coach of the Year Monty Williams to make the necessary changes to win at home.

BETS: Suns -6.5 (+100); Dorian Finney-Smith Over 12.5 Points (-102)

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