Betting/Fantasy Impact: Blue Jays Fire Charlie Montoyo

Toronto fired their manager in the middle of his fourth season. Where do they go from here?

The Blue Jays announced Wednesday morning that Charlie Montoyo would be relieved of his managerial duties. John Schneider will take over for the remainder of the season. 

Statement from the Toronto Blue Jays: pic.twitter.com/mSylN7TyDE

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 13, 2022

Montoyo is the third MLB manager fired this season and the first with a winning record (46-42). 

Despite that winning record, the Jays have not met expectations for the season. Toronto was the favorite for the AL East (+165) and the AL favorite for the World Series (+800) heading into the season. For the record, we advised you not to take that bet. 

The Jays now find themselves 15.5 games behind the divisions leading Yankees, who hold the best record in baseball. However, they are only 1.5 games out of the top AL Wild Card spot, and if the playoffs started today, the Jays would get a berth. 

Blue Jays Charlie Montoyo is the first MLB manager fired this late into a season as his team was still in a playoff spot since the Ned Yost of the Brewers in 2008.

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) July 13, 2022

After firing their manager, Joe Girardi, on June 3rd, the Phillies have gone 24-13; however, after firing Joe Maddon on June 7th, the Angels have gone 11-19. 

So, what can we expect?

The Jays are currently +4000 to win the AL East and +1400 to win the World Series.

I expect this Jays team's young, talented core to wake up post-All-Star Break with the shakeup. Do I think the Jays can win this division? Nope, not a chance. But, +1400 is a good value for the team to win it all. The problem is... First, they have to get through the Yankees—that's why even +4000 doesn't persuade me to bet on them to win the division.

For fantasy managers, the hope is that this will be the spark the offense needs. You haven't been sitting any of your Blue Jays and instead have been starting them as they returned less value than their draft spot. Vlad Guerrero, Jr., who opened the season as the second favorite for AL MVP at +375, has not approached his first-round draft value. Guerrero's batting average (.266) is 14th among starting first basemen—behind Ryan Mountcastle and Garrett Cooper—and he's scored fewer runs (46) than Luis Arraez (51). Pete Alonso leads the position with 23 home runs, and Vlad is tied for fifth with Paul Goldschmidt (19). Guerrero led the league alongside Sal Perez with 48 home runs in 2021. 

Vlad's max exit velocity (117.9) is even higher than last season (117.4), and he's got a 53.2% hard-hit rate.  

Bo Bichette has scored the 11th best batting average among shortstops (.260) and has scored the 6th-most runs (48), behind position-leading Tommy Edman (58). He's been hot lately, and I expect that to continue.

George Springer has also been hot lately, with hits in each of his last four games and two home runs. On the season, Springer is hitting .250 with 17 homers and 40 RBI. Expect him to continue to be a solid player. 

Santiago Espinal, Alejandro Kirk, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. exceeded expectations this year. If Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernadez can get in gear, this team could push for the number one wild card spot. 

As for the pitching, the Berrios continues to be uneven, but Stripling, Gausman and Manoah have all been strong. If the offense can wake up, they should be able to log you a few more wins. 

In short, Jays' players have been good, but they could be great. The All-Star Break and the new manager could be the shakeup they need to go to the next level. And yeah, I'm starting them in my DFS lineups tonight, even vs. Zack Wheeler. 

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