Dabo Swinney Needs to Adapt to Keep Clemson’s Championship Window Open

The Tigers’ coach has officially stumbled out of contention in a league he’s dominated for years. But if history serves as a guide, he can return to his glory days.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Jim Harbaugh is an admirer of corn:

First Quarter: Michigan’s spygate silence | Second Quarter: Questions for first CFP ranking

Third Quarter: Is Dabo done as an elite coach?

The demise of Clemson is final and official, at least the 2023 version. The Tigers have slid to 4–4, their worst eight-game record since 2010, stumbling out of contention to win the league they have dominated for most of the past decade.

That has led to some speculation about whether Dabo Swinney (21) has seen his national championship contender window close. It was open for an incredible six seasons from 2015 to ’20, with Clemson winning two nattys, playing in two more championship games and making the College Football Playoff all six of those seasons. The Tigers went 79–7 and finished every one of those years ranked in the top five.

Swinney will need to show a willingness to modernize if he wants to be a championship contender again :: Karl B DeBlaker/AP

Now five years past the last title and three years past the last Playoff appearance, can he get it back? There certainly are historical precedents for it.

Among those who had two distinct periods of championship-level excellence at the same school:

From 1973 to ’80, Barry Switzer (22) went 83-10-2 at Oklahoma, winning national titles in 1974 and ’75. He then snorkeled through a 23-12-1 stretch from 1981 to ’83 before returning to dominance. Switzer went 33–3 his next three seasons with the Sooners, winning another title in 1985.

Bear Bryant (23) was 60-5-1 at Alabama from 1961 to ’66, with three national titles claimed in that time. The next four seasons he went 28-15-2, finishing as low as eighth place in the SEC in 1969. But Bryant then owned the next decade, going 97–11 from 1971 to ’79 and winning two more national titles.

John McKay (24) spread four national championships at USC across 13 seasons from 1962 to ’74, with a pair of three-year clusters of greatness: He was 29-2-2 from 1967-69, with one national title; then 31-3-2 from 1972-74, with two more titles. (The 1962 title was a bit of an outlier, with McKay’s only undefeated and untied team coming after a 4-5-1 season and followed by a 7–3 one.) McKay might have added to those totals—and perhaps subtracted from Bryant’s—if he hadn’t left to coach the NFL expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He promptly lost his first 26 games in that job before eventually taking the Bucs to the NFC title game in 1979.

All of this should serve as fresh appreciation for the sustained excellence of one Nick Saban (25) at Alabama. From 2008 to ’21, Saban went 176–19, won six national championships and competed in seven playoffs. The Dash still believes that Kelee Ringo ended Saban’s natty run on the night of Jan. 10, 2022, but danged if he doesn’t have the Crimson Tide at least back in contention for the playoff again this season. (Kirby Smart may be in the early stages of a run that challenges Saban’s as the greatest of all time, but that won’t be decided for many years.)

What does Saban have that Swinney hasn’t yet shown? Adaptability. He’s shrewdly navigated the drastic changes in the sport, both on the field and off. Swinney has struggled to modernize, particularly in terms of roster building—but even with high-end talent in key offensive positions, Clemson has fallen and can’t get up.

DJ Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik (26) both were the Rivals No. 1 quarterback recruit in the nation. Uiagalelei had two struggling seasons as the starter at Clemson, compiling a pass efficiency rating of 121.7 in 2021–22. He transferred to Oregon State, where his efficiency rating this year is 155.6. Klubnik ascended to the starting role this year and has performed similarly to Uiagalelei, with a 130.8 efficiency rating.

Clemson is 13th out of 14 teams in the ACC in yards per pass attempt at 6.7, but don’t blame all that on the quarterback. The receiving corps is shockingly pedestrian and has been for a couple of years. Changing coordinators hasn’t worked, either, with Garrett Riley overseeing an offense this season that is performing worse than last year’s mediocre unit and about the same statistically as the dysfunctional one from 2021.

So Dabo Swinney has a big job ahead of him in fixing the program he built. But if history serves as a guide—and he shows a willingness to modernize—it can be done.

The most interesting November conference races

There are some wild stretch runs coming this November in a number of leagues. The Dash takes a look at the ones packing the greatest intrigue.

Big 12 (27). There currently is a five-team pileup for first at 4–1 between Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas and Kansas State. In anticipation of tiebreaker scenarios, here are their records against each other: Oklahoma is 2–0, with a game at Oklahoma State remaining; Iowa State is 1–1, with games against Texas and Kansas State remaining; Oklahoma State is 1–1, with the game against the Sooners on Saturday; Texas is 0–1, with games against Iowa State and Kansas State remaining; and K-State is 0–1, with games against Texas and Iowa State.

Six different schools played in the Big 12 title game over the previous three seasons. The only one of the five currently at the top that hasn’t been part of that rotation is Texas, which last made the league championship game in 2018.

For the sake of absurdity, The Dash is hoping for a championship matchup of teams that lost to South Alabama and Ohio. That would be Oklahoma State and Iowa State, respectively.

SEC West (28). The possibility of a three-way tie for the division title exists, but it will take a couple of upsets. First, LSU needs to beat Alabama on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Then, Mississippi would need to slay the Georgia dragon in Athens on Nov. 11. If those things happen and all three get to the clubhouse at 7–1, we get into the weeds on tiebreakers.

It would likely come down to the cumulative conference winning percentage of opponents from the SEC East. Currently, LSU’s East opponents are 6–3, while Alabama’s and Mississippi’s both are 5–5. That’s a fluid situation.

If all goes according to the oddsmakers, Alabama wins out and wins the West for the 10,000th time. Which would not add much novelty to the proceedings.

ACC (29). This has been Florida State and the Rotating Contender of the Week. Miami had a spin. Then North Carolina. Duke popped up. Louisville came and went and came back again. Could Virginia Tech actually be next?

The Cardinals (4–1) and Hokies (3–1) play Saturday in Louisville for second place. The Cardinals are undefeated at home with an average winning margin of 30 points and the Hokies are winless on the road, both of which assuredly contributed to Louisville being a 9.5-point favorite.

If the Cards take care of Virginia Tech this week and Virginia next week, they would clinch at least a tie for second in the conference heading into a game at Miami on Nov. 18. It’s possible that the Hurricanes would have their third league loss by then, having played at Florida State the week before. If Louisville gets to 6–1 and loses to 4–3 Miami while North Carolina wins out to go 6–2, it might come down to the third tiebreaker between the Cardinals and Tar Heels to see who plays for the league title: winning percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish. In other words, whoever finishes fourth in the ACC could affect who plays Florida State in Charlotte.

Big Ten West (30). There are four teams tied for first at 3–2, bless their hearts, all battling for the right to be squashed in Indianapolis by the East Division champ. The rogues’ gallery: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska. If either Minnesota or Nebraska win the division, the West will crown its fifth different champion in five years.

In league play, Wisconsin is the most potent scoring team of the group at 20.6 points per game. Minnesota checks in at 19.2, Nebraska at 18.8 and Iowa at 14.2, which is why offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has been informed that he won’t be back after this season. (More on that in the Dash Fourth Quarter.)

This could come down to a pair of Thanksgiving weekend rivalry games: Iowa at Nebraska on Nov. 24 and Wisconsin at Minnesota the next day. First team to score 20 in either game wins the whole thing.