Armed Forces Bowl: Who Benefits More From Frigid Weather?
Neither the Baylor Bears nor the Air Force Academy Falcons are used to playing in the kind of temperatures they will experience in Fort Worth Thursday during the Armed Forces Bowl. No matter where either school is located, there are very few games played in sub-20-degree weather, and no one, and I mean no one, actually enjoys it.
But is the advantage as clear-cut as we would all think?
Conventional wisdom says Air Force is at a huge advantage in the cold. The Falcons run the ball more often than any team in the country and they come from Colorado Springs, which of course has much colder winters than the normally temperate Waco. On top of that, Baylor nose tackle and chief run stuffer Siaki Ika announced he will opt out of the bowl game in preparation for the NFL Draft.
Done and dusted, Air Force is licking their chops looking at the forecast and the Falcons should cruise (ah, to be on a cruise) to an easy victory. Well, maybe not.
First off, the Air Force players might live in these conditions in picturesque Colorado Springs, but they don't really play in them. Being Airmen, they are accustomed to training outside, but military tactics and training don't get completely altered the way they do on a football field. Almost every bowl game is played in a warm climate and even the cold-weather teams prepare indoors. This kind of frozen tundra they will play on Thursday is just as uncommon to the Falcons as it is to the Bears.
Baylor, on the other hand, fashions its game for these types of elements, even if they rarely play in them. Fans may have gotten sick of the seemingly archaic nature of the run-first offense, but this means the Bears are better suited for trench warfare (strictly in football terms, of course) than maybe any other team in the Big 12.
The Bears have run the ball over 500 times this year, more than all but two teams in the conference, and have the best yards per rush and yards per game average in the Big 12. The Bears are also more prolific runners than the Falcons, beating out Air Force in both the latter two categories.
That is a simple way of saying the Bears are prepared for this kind of game, at least offensively. Both these teams are not necessarily effective against the run, however, as both allow more than 3.5 yards a carry, comfortably in the bottom half of FBS. The Falcons do hang their hat on the fact they hold teams to under 100 rushing yards per game (in stark contrast to Baylor allowing 137 rushing yards per game) but suffice it to say they have not faced a rushing attack like the one the Bears boast.
Richard Reese, Qualan Jones and Sqwirl Williams have been churning through opposing defenses all year, whether the Bears' defense could keep pace and win games or not. Furthermore, the Bears beefed up and experienced offensive line are all leaving after this game and have one more opportunity to show out in a Baylor uniform. It's one of those factors you obviously can't quantify, but one that I think should not be taken lightly.
The game is going to be freezing cold with a biting wind and a surface that will feel like playing in a parking lot. Neither team is very effective passing the ball and neither team has much interest in being a pass-first team, so this will look something akin to the Dayton Triangles vs. the Decatur Staleys in 1922 rather than any game played in 2022.
Yes, this weather still favors the Falcons, mainly because of Ika's absence and no other Bears nose tackle taking meaningful snaps this year, and no Baylor defensive front showing they can take away a team's rushing attack. Air Force has the edge, but it won't be as big as a lot of people think. Baylor can run the rock too, and with limited possessions, this game might just come down to who can hang on to the pigskin a little bit better.
For what it's worth, I don't know which team represents the Triangles and which represents the Staleys, but when the two met on the gridiron 100 years ago at Wrigley Field, it was the home team, who was playing only their sixth game as the newly christened Chicago Bears, who won 9-0. You can thank Bears defensive end George Halas for stopping the Triangles' rushing attack, so maybe a game like this favors the Bears after all.
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Covering Baylor for Inside The Bears and the Locked on Baylor podcast. You can follow me for more Baylor content at @realcamstuart on Twitter. Originally from Rockland, Massachusetts and a Baylor alum, so I might mix the occasional bias and/or Boston sports tweet in there every once in a while.