Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys

UC is 5-7 in the Big 12 and can start solidifying an NCAA Tournament berth with a winning streak.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 19, 2024 3:41 PM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats are hopping in and out of the NCAA Tournament mix in recent weeks. That rollercoaster can hit a higher upswing on Wednesday with a home win over Oklahoma State.

It would mark the program's first time winning consecutive Big 12 games and they will be favored to get it done. The Cowboys are the second-worst team in the conference, but it's still unlikely to be easy after they upset BYU by 10 points this past weekend.

Cincinnati enters the game as an 89.7% favorite on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. They are 37th in the NET rankings and 36th on KenPom. OSU is 125th in the NET and 111th on KenPom.

When Oklahoma State Has The Ball

Make Small small.

Cincinnati has to cut the head off the OSU offensive snake to start this game. Limiting any shotmaking from main scorer Javon Small (14.2 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 4.6 Ast) is the best way to shut down the 135th offense in the country by adjusted efficiency (just 66.9 PPG in conference, 13th in the Big 12).

He is the best shooter on the team (39.2% from deep on a team-high 5.2 attempts) but shoots just 30% from deep on the road. The Bearcats should own this matchup if that continues.

OSU thrives off volume three-point shooting (23.8 attempts per game in conference, 2nd in Big 12) and it's the easiest way to tell if they'll stay in this game, or get blown out. They get them up, but they aren't going in enough to save the Cowboys' season (31.1% from deep in conference play, 11th).

They quite literally live and die by the three. OSU is 7-1 this season when making 10-plus triples.

There isn't another key scorer to focus on outside of Small. Cincinnati can likely just stick John Newman III on him all game and focus doubles or traps on lesser scorers to really jank up the OSU offense. Second-leading scorer Bryce Thompson has not played this month due to injury and no one outside of John Michael-Wright (8.1 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.9 Ast) has stepped up to complement small.

Michael-Wright is shooting 37.1% from deep on 6.1 attempts per game in conference play. Limit the shooting from those two and Cincinnati's suffocating defense should own the rest of the floor.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Wednesday is a great chance for Cincinnati to hit a stride on offense with its full roster in the swing of Big 12 action. Oklahoma State allows the highest field-goal percentage in the conference (49.9%) and 76.2 PPG overall (12th).

The Bearcats should munch around the glass like the rest of the Big 12 (57.5% shooting allowed inside the arc, 14th). The Cowboys only block 2.3 shots per game and offer up one rotation player over 6-foot-8 in the 6-foot-11, 245-pound Brandon Garrison (7.7 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 1.4 Ast).

He's a solid foul target though as Cincinnati can look to get aggressive downhill, hunt free throws, and take timely three-point looks. OSU wants teams to get into a deep shooting contest with them (19.2 three-point attempts allowed, 2nd in Big 12). The Bearcats' ability to get to the line will probably determine their chances of covering the spread instead of sneaking a win.

OSU allows 10.7 free throw attempts per game in conference play. Get that closer to 20 on Wednesday and Cincinnati should win going away.

Prediction: 83-70 Cincinnati

The Bearcats are getting stronger while OSU gets weaker.

The sheer volume of talent on the road will be too much to overcome for OSU as Small posts 15 points on poor efficiency in a loss. Jamille Reynolds shoots a perfect 6-of-6 inside and leads Cincinnati on offense in a punishing statement before traveling to face TCU this weekend.

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