Preview Paw Prints: SMU Mustangs

The Bearcats are entering a crucial stretch of the season.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (12-6, 3-2) travel to Texas this weekend for a must-win matchup against SMU (6-11, 1-3).

UC is trying to start another win streak against the Mustangs after losing to them last march for the first time in 10 meetings.

SMU is ranked right near East Carolina on KenPom (No. 176), while Cincinnati is 76th. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 68.1% of the time.

Here's the preview as Cincinnati enters a crucial January stretch this season.

The Time Is Now

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Cincinnati is running out of time to prove it's worthy of an at-large NCAA tournament bid.

They are ranked 87th in the NET rankings, and fourth among AAC teams as UCF (35th) continues its surprise climb up the ranks this season. Don't bank on four teams making the dance. With 13 games left, Cincinnati likely needs to go 11-2.

Even then, if both losses are to Houston and UCF, it might still not be enough to avoid having to win the conference tournament.

Cincinnati is a brutal 0-4 in Quad 1 games this season; they don't have any Quad 2 opponents, and they are a rough 2-2 in Quad 3 games. The signature wins simply have not happened over the past 14 months following Miller's 5-0 start and top-15 win over Illinois.

UC ranks 172nd in total strength of schedule, and 280th in non-conference schedule strength. They won't get the benefit of the doubt on that front.

Blowouts against bad teams like SMU and ECU need to continue AND the signature wins need to follow, or the tournament drought is moving to four years.

Ball, Pinging

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This UC squad is at its best when one of Mika Adams-Woods or David DeJulius is yo-yoing the defense and moving the ball around as a result.

The Bearcats' second-leading scorer dove into a playmaking role Wednesday and notched UC's first assist double-double in over five years (11 points, 12 assists). 

DeJulius was a huge reason for Cincinnati's whopping 64.5% assist rate.

“I don’t know if I have a great buzz sentence for you for a headline, but yes, I have an identity,” Miller said Tuesday about his team's mantra. “It’s to be a team that every single possession has five guys who are connected, who are committed to our defensive principles, who make the quality of the other team’s shots lower, who clean the defensive glass, who gets our hands on balls so we can get out and run, puts our chest on the ball, rotates to the ball, communicates well."

That connection is getting more consistent since the start of conference play.

Cincinnati has posted a 60%-plus assist rate in 4-of-5 conference games, and they are 8-2 this season when that number is 54% or better. It's not rocket science, when this mix of talent moves the ball around, shots get easier, and so does defense. They can get set after makes much more often.

It shouldn't be hard to find that against an SMU team allowing 0.2 assists per possession (272nd nationally).

Transitioning Mustangs

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Cincinnati faces another first-year coach this weekend in Rob Lanier, who has a roster that returned just 20.6% of its scoring from last season.

The biggest question surrounding this team is the health of sophomore Zurich Phelps (17.5 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 2.5 Ast). The 6-foot-3 guard is fourth in the AAC in scoring and just missed the Mustangs' 97-88 loss to Tulane.

Phelps is their best scorer and arguably the best playmaker, his health is a big one to monitor pregame. If he can't go, look for guard Zach Nutall (13.6 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.6 Ast) and forward Stefan Todorovic (7.7 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast) to pick up the slack. 

The latter just dropped a career-high 27 points and is a dynamic 6-foot-8, 190-pound talent. He added 10 boards to that outing and is part of a big-man trio Viktor Lakhin will have to deal with.

Efe Odigie (9.7 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 0.8 Ast) and Samuel Williamson (8.7 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 2.6 Ast) are the other formidable frontcourt weapons at 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-7.

They are both top-seven rebounders in the conference, and Williamson is one of nine AAC players averaging at least 1 block per game.

Cincinnati and SMU tip off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU this Saturday. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more.

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