Game Preview: UC Rekindles Another AAC Rivalry Against Houston

Cincinnati is out of bowl contention for the first time since the 2017 season.

CINCINNATI — Will the losing streak end this season? That's the biggest question left for the UC football team headed to Houston this week with no chance of continuing its bowl streak into a sixth season.

Cincinnati and Houston are headed in different directions as the Cougars (4-5) make a push for a bowl, having gone 2-2 in its past four games. These two teams have not faced off since Cincinnati's College Football Playoff ticket-puncher back in 2021, where the Bearcats toppled Houston 35-20 in the 2021 AAC title game.

“The biggest challenge is when you come in as a new coaching staff because you don’t know what you have until you start playing games," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about the Year 1 challenges. "As you continue to play football, you don’t know in the league how the other teams are built and what they are trying to do.

"The challenges are particularly in the secondary when you lose a guy like Sammy [Anderson] who is one of our best corners and now we are having to play some younger guys and even older guys who have not played a lot but now have to go out there and play. I also want to put our guys in good positions to make plays and not get exposed and that has been the challenge all year. I think we have done a good job in a lot of things but also a poor job in some other things that has really cost us.”

Cincinnati is a two-point underdog entering the Houston contest. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Cougars winning 56.4% of the time. The Bearcats can come within one win of tying the all-time series if it breaks the seven-game losing streak Saturday (13-15 record against Houston).

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Saturday brings another matchup where Cincinnati should have plenty of offensive success on paper. "On paper" has been the operative phrase all season because somehow, some way, UC always seems to find a way to shoot itself in the foot on either side of the ball.

Houston is outside the top 75 in both EPA/pass and EPA/rush allowed this season. The Cougars are awful at stopping teams on early downs (108th nationally in early down EPA allowed), which should allow UC to roll with the only thing it has done consistently well this season: run the ball.

“If you go back and you look at the last several games where they have a lot of people in the box and we're still able to run the football, we have to credit our offensive line, tight ends, and running backs," Satterfield said about the rushing attack. "They continue to hit it and make those plays. On Saturday we moved the ball well minus the two turnovers, we played me to maybe as efficiently offensively as we played all year."

Houston ranks 91st nationally in rush yards allowed (160.33), 104th in rushing TDs allowed (19), and 78th in yards per carry allowed (4.23).

UC's rushers should make mince meat of a poor tackling group at the second level (61.6 PFF team tackling grade, 100th nationally). The one game-wrecker to worry about is edge rusher Nelson Ceasar (team-high 8.5 sacks and 27 pressures).

They line him up all over the formation to get the best matchups against a UC offensive line ranked 76th nationally in sacks allowed per game. Cincinnati has to keep him contained and target Houston's linebackers in coverage to have the best chance at pulling the upset.

When Houston Has The Ball

UC fans would love to have the quarterback production Houston is getting from Donovan Smith (2,303 yards on 66% completion, 18 TDs to seven interceptions).

He's passed for the second-most yards and TDs in the Big 12 this season and is likely drooling at seeing this secondary on the schedule. Smith and his trio of strong pass-catching options (Samuel Brown, Joseph Manjack IV, Matthew Golden) own four of Houston's five highest PFF offensive grades this season.

Left tackle Patrick Paul (82.4 overall) holds the top spot as a future NFL talent.

"Donovan Smith is a really good player," Satterfield said about the quarterback. "He's got great size; I didn't realize how big he was. He can run too. He can throw and completed 66% of his passes, which I think is really good. Again, a couple of dynamic receivers I think that are that are awesome players in the return game. #2 [Golden], I think he's got two kickoff returns for touchdowns."

Both these teams have awful special teams units, but as Satterfield mentioned, Golden can house a kickoff any time.

He's the only player in the country with two KO return TDs this season and owns the third-highest PFF return grade in the country (90.6, 35.7 yards per return, most nationally among any player with nine returns or more).

Golden could swing this game in one play on Saturday.

Prediction: 35-27 Houston

They gotta prove it to me.

This UC team has found ways to blow winning chances every week and that will continue against Houston. Smith lights them up with efficient long passing drives, plus a short score off of a long Golden return and UC continues to have quarterback issues.

The better HC-QB combination comes out victorious on Saturday.

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