Preview: Can Cincinnati Stop The Oklahoma Freight Train?

The Bearcats have not lost back-to-back home games in nearly six years.

CINCINNATI — Big 12 life has arrived for the UC football team.

Cincinnati takes on No. 16 Oklahoma at Nippert Stadium this Saturday in a marquee Big Noon Kickoff on Fox. The Bearcats are trying to avoid consecutive home losses for the first time since the 2017 season.

The goal is to carry the success that Luke Fickell sparked into the Big 12, and Saturday would be a big step in doing so if UC can pull off the upset as 14.5-point underdogs. ESPN's matchup predictor has Oklahoma winning 86.7% of the time.

Cincinnati is 0-2 all-time against Oklahoma, facing them most recently at Paul Brown Stadium in 2010 (31-29 Sooners win).

“I think we are there," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about matching up with Power Five teams. "I mean look at the Pitt game. You go into a hostile environment, you're playing Pitt, and my team has a lot of pride and plays very hard, and our guys didn’t bat an eye. They went out there and they played their butts off. You don't look at the jersey and say, ‘Oh a team like Oklahoma, with tons of history and all this and that.’ We respect them, but we still want to go out and win. We still want to go out and play our best football."

When UC Has The Ball

Which will break first UC's rushing attack (239.3 yards per game, eighth nationally) or the Sooner's run defense (78.7 YPG allowed, 15th nationally)?

That question will go a long way in determining Cincinnati's chances of winning the game or at least covering the spread. Satterfield's outside zone scheme has shown up in the traditional and advanced stats so far this season. The offensive line's powered four different 100-yard individual rushing outings and ranks 19th in EPA/rush, while OU's defense is 15th on the other side of that number.

Making sure those rushing lanes stay open to give Emory Jones breathing room to operate through the air is crucial.

"I think on their side defensively (head) coach (Brent) Venables is an outstanding defensive coach," Satterfield said. "We faced him at Clemson many times and he did an unbelievable job there and such a good job, he got the head job at Oklahoma. I think this year their defense is playing very well. They have held their opponents well, they played to single digits through these first three games. They like to apply pressure; they play a lot of different coverages in the back end. They run well, they have good size. Obviously a very good team."

UC has to be sound in the turnover game against a team that creates plenty of havoc plays led by Big 12 tackle leader Danny Stutsman (30 tackles, 4.5 for loss, one sack, one INT). He's had a nose for the football that's oozed to other players.

Another key name to watch out for is cornerback Kendel Dolby, one of three Sooners corners with a 79-plus PFF grade this season. Dolby's been a no-fly zone, allowing no catches on just two 2023 targets with an interception mixed in.

Oklahoma is t-sixth nationally with six interceptions and sixth in forced turnovers overall. UC likely has to win the turnover battle to win the game, plus execute in the red zone. One touchdown on seven drives inside the 10-yard line won't cut it against the Sooners. 

They've allowed points on every RZ drive this season, with a catch. Teams have only had five RZ possessions and just three found the end zone.

When Oklahoma Has The Ball

Oklahoma has a strong case as the best offense in the country entering Week 4. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel boasts 900-plus passing yards, a 12-1 TD-INT ratio, and is completing 85% of his passes.

A Boomer Sooner freight train is arriving at Nippert Stadium.

“Playing a lefty is what it is, as far as that goes," Satterfield said about Gabriel. "I think more importantly it’s when you're playing a good quarterback, which he is. I think he's very accurate. He understands what they're trying to do within their offense. If he has guys open, he's going to hit him. He's not going to miss many throws at all. I think that's the thing that makes him very good. He's not a tall quarterback, but they do enough things to hinder the rush. He’s always got a little bit more time back there."

The matchup comes down to Cincinnati's heralded defensive front against an offensive line that has allowed one sack all season (Marshall only FBS team to not allow a sack this season).

If UC can't help out the secondary with consistent pressure then this game could get ugly. The numbers paint a rough matchup as OU boasts the nation's top passing offense by EPA/pass. Cincinnati is 101st on the other side of that stat after allowing 19.8 yards per catch on 12 completions last weekend.

Cincinnati has also allowed far too many first-down plays on early downs (69.4% of opposing 1st downs on 1st/2nd down, 105th nationally). If OU doesn't face many third downs then it'll be a hot Sooner knife through Bearcat butter.

“Number one, I think as individuals, we have to continue to work on our techniques of how we are trying to defend," Satterfield said about defensive adjustments this week. "You have to mix that up with your technique, meaning you can’t just walk up and press every time. You have to play a bail technique where you play off a little bit because if you’re up, now it’s a lot easier for that guy to run right by you. We have to switch up our techniques, some things individually. We also have to help them out in what we are calling defensively."

Cincinnati's two worst players last week were outside cornerbacks Justin Harris (team-low 53.6 PFF grade), and Jordan Young (56.6 PFF grade). If they allow multiple touchdowns, and a 100% completion rate again like last week, it's curtains for UC.

Unfortunately for the Bearcats, every OU wide receiver to play this season has a 70-plus PFF Grade. Andrel Anthony (79.5 overall grade) is the top player to mark with 14 catches for 254 yards and a score this season. Then 6-foot-4 dunker Nic Anderson has to get a mention as well with five catches for 188 yards and three TDs. It's pick your poison from the Norman, OK outfit.

Prediction: 33-30 Oklahoma

The Sooners succumb to UC's aggressive pressure for a few disrupted drives in this game, but they ultimately score a field goal or touchdown on all but two possessions in a fun game at Nippert Stadium.

Jones turns things around a bit through the air to take advantage of OU's weakest defensive attribute and the rushing attack narrowly crosses 200 yards, but Cincinnati doesn't control the clock enough to keep the Sooners' offense from driving a win (UC's eighth nationally in average time of possession, 34 minutes per game).

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