Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Boston College Eagles

After an embarrassing loss last Saturday at Louisville, the Seminoles are on the road again to face off against the Boston College Eagles.

I'm still stunned at how the last game against Louisville transpired. Even though any NCAA Tournament at-large chance is essentially shot, there's still time to show what this team is made of by responding on the road against Boston College. 

It's a better Boston College team than normal, though I still wouldn't say they're necessarily a good team. Florida State has lost the last three games at BC, so a win here would help to exorcise some demons. 

This game tips off at 7 PM on the ACC Network, live from the Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill, MA. 

Boston College Eagles Breakdown (13-8 Overall, 4-6 ACC)

Boston College is in their third season under head coach Earl Grant, who is 42-45 overall and 19-31 in ACC play. His teams the last few years have been below average; this year, they've come somewhere towards the middle of the ACC. It's the classic beating the teams they're supposed to beat while not suffering any bad losses. Heading into this game, they're 3-7 against teams ranked higher than them in KenPom (two of those wins coming at home) and 10-1 against teams ranked lower. Florida State is just barely ahead of them in KenPom, sitting at 82nd to Boston College's 90th.

FSU Veteran Defensive Back to Remain with 'The Battle's End' for Another Season

It starts and ends, in my opinion, with big man Quinten Post, who averages 16.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.8 BPG while shooting 50% from the floor, 41.9% from 3 (at 7'0" is impressive), and 80% from the free throw line. He's a very unique challenge and is likely looking forward to going against a defense that switches everything. Post has scored in double figures in all but two games, but one of those games is a 0-point, 0/4 shooting, 7-turnover outing against Syracuse. They did a good of getting him into foul trouble early, something I imagine Florida State will try to replicate. Despite his size, he's not a great offensive rebounder, averaging just 2 per game and having an offensive rebound rate of about 7%. 

Claudell Harris, a transfer from Charleston Southern, has stepped up in a big way for Boston College, averaging 14.4 PPG while shooting 40.3% from three on more than six attempts per game. More than 50% of his shot attempts come from behind the arc, but he's plenty capable inside the arc as well. As a smaller shooting guard, I'm curious to see how he does against Florida State's length. 

Jaeden Zackary has had an interesting career thus far. As a freshman in the 21/22 season, he shot a blistering 47.7% from 3 on 3.3 attempts per game. Some may remember his game against Florida State, where he was 4/4 from deep on his way to 18 points. Since that season, he's shooting just 32.1% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game. Where he has come a long way is his playmaking, emerging as a pure point guard for them, averaging a career-high 4.3 assists per game and a career-low 1.7 turnovers per game. When he turns it over, BC does tend to lose, losing three of the five games he has three or more turnovers. 

Devin McGlockton is actually the best offensive rebounder on the team, with an offensive rebound rate of over 9% while averaging 10.8 PPG and 6.5 RPG. He's pretty similar to Ian Schieffelin of Clemson in that he's capable from 3, but he's dangerous around the rim as a scorer and rebounder. 

Prince Aligbe is a wing with good size, but he cannot shoot: just 14.8% from 3 and 62.5% from the free throw line on the season. He's mainly out there to get rebounds and defend, as he doesn't really score a lot.

Of their bench options, Mason Madsen is an elite 3-point shooter at 44.8% but doesn't do much else; Chas Kelly is a solid backup point guard, averaging four assists per 40 minutes, and Donald Hand, another wing with solid size. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (12-9 Overall, 6-4 ACC)

Saturday night's defensive effort still shocks me, but the pace at which the game was played shocks me even more. Having 80 combined free throws helps, but 86 possessions is the 5th most in the KenPom era for FSU. I know Florida State would prefer to have games with a faster pace because it usually leads to a good kind of chaos. Saturday was the bad kind of chaos: too many fouls, too many of their own turnovers, and too many mental lapses. Luckily for them, college basketball moves quickly, and they have a chance to get over it, which is all you can do- move on to the next one. 

Putting up a solid response following that loss will be a good test of the team's mental resolve. If they come out firing and ready to right their wrongs, they could still make a run through the ACC Tournament. If they look flat and disinterested, then the last month and change of the season could be rough. 

This will be a much different challenge than Louisville was. While Brandon Huntley-Hatfield was a forward thrust into the role of a big, Quinten Post is a true center who is shooting 41.9% from 3 on more than three attempts per game. That's a tough ask for a team that prefers to switch everything. 

Florida State does need to be shooting better from the perimeter. They try to make up for it by getting to the free throw line and finishing inside, but shooting below 30% in 6 of your last ten games is hard to overcome. They were able to do it for the majority of January, but we've turned the calendar over to a new month, and different games are being played. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Chandler Jackson didn't play Saturday night in what was described as a "Coach's Decision." His status is up in the air, but I imagine he plays. 

Projected Starters

Boston College

G: Jaeden Zackary

G: Claudell Harris

F: Prince Aligbe

F: Devin McGlockton

C: Quinten Post

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr. 

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Keys to the Game

Defense Needs to Bounce Back

The defense was absolutely horrible Saturday night, allowing the 4th most points since KenPom started tracking games in 1999. It's hard to be as bad as they were this past weekend, but the defense needs to respond in a big way going forward. Force turnovers, close off driving lanes, and get back to playing Florida State basketball. 

Quinten Post

Post is a front-runner to be first-team All-ACC, averaging 16.2 PPG and 7.6 RPG and scoring in double figures in all but two games. Boston College tends to falter when he does. In games where he shoots 40% or less on 2s, they're just 1-4. They're also just 3-4 in games where he has four or more turnovers, something Florida State can do. 

He's a tremendous talent who can score from anywhere. How FSU decides to defend him will speak volumes in this one. 

Can Jalen Warley Pick Up Where He Left Off?

Warley was spectacular on Saturday, tying his career-high in points with 23 before fouling out with a few minutes remaining. He's had a few big moments this season, but last time he had more than 15 points (19 against Colorado), he followed it up with 0 against Georgia. The more defenses respect his offense, the easier it becomes for the whole flow of the offense. 

Game Prediction

Boston College is favored by 3 points, with a projected total of 151.5.

Even though Florida State has historically struggled at Boston College, I think they bounce back in a big way after the Louisville game, Baba Miller especially. They have their work cut out for them against Quinten Post, but my gut tells me FSU will find a way to pull this one out. 

Florida State 77, Boston College 71

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