Game-by-game ESPN FPI win projections for Georgia Tech after week four

Will Georgia Tech make a bowl game in 2023?

Author:
Jackson Caudell
Publish date:
Sep 27, 2023 4:05 PM EDT

In this story:

There are still eight weeks to go in the season, but it is interesting after these first four weeks to take a look and see how Georgia Tech is being viewed around the country and how they are projected to play.

After a big road win against Wake Forest, the Yellow Jackets have a clear path to a bowl game. The program has not been to one since 2018 and that would be a huge step forward for Brent Key in his first full season with the program.

After each week, ESPN's FPI updates its projections for each game and the Yellow Jackets find themselves ranked 49th in the country.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Jamal Haynes has been a nice addition to the Georgia Tech backfield this season
Nathaniel Caudell

Let's take a look at how FPI views Georgia Tech in the rest of their matchups this season and how it compares to preseason expectations.

Game 5: vs. Bowling Green

ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech an 89.5% chance to win (84% in the preseason)

FPI is making Georgia Tech a heavy favorite weekend and they are not alone. The latest odds have Georgia Tech as a 22.5-point favorite and SP+ see Georgia Tech winning this game by 19 points. Bowling Green ranks 116th in FPI.

Projected record: 3-2

Game 6: at Miami

ESPN FPI gives Miami an 88.5% chance to win (81.5 in the preseason)

Georgia Tech travels to Miami next weekend for a primetime matchup with the Hurricanes, who are off to a 4-0 start. Miami has a big win against Texas A&M under its belt and is going to be coming off of a bye week. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is playing as well as any quarterback in the country and their defensive line has a number of high-level players. FPI has Miami ranked 15th currently

Projected record: 3-3

Game 7: vs. Boston College

ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 79.2% chance to win (63% in the preseason)

The odds for this game have gone up significantly since the season started. This is one game that Georgia Tech should have circled and they need to win this to ensure they get to a bowl game. Boston College is 1-3 to start the season and just got demolished against Louisville. The Eagle's lone win is over Holy Cross and it was only by three points. The game is in Atlanta and Georgia Tech will be favored. FPI has the Eagles ranked 90th.

Projected record: 4-3

Game 8: vs. North Carolina

ESPN FPI gives North Carolina a 71.4% chance to win this game (73.0% in the preseason)

This is an interesting game. North Carolina is No. 15 in the country in the AP Poll and has wins over South Carolina, Pitt, and Minnesota. None of those teams are super impressive, but having three wins over power five opponents already is not something most teams can say. Georgia Tech has made it tough on North Carolina during the last two seasons and it is in Atlanta. The Tar Heels are the better team on paper, but they have struggled against the Yellow Jackets in the past.

Projected record: 4-4

Game 9: at Virginia

ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 72.8% chance to win this game (FPI favored Virginia in the preseason)

FPI odds for this game have shifted in a big way in favor of Georgia Tech. Virginia is off to an 0-4 start and it could only get worse for Tony Elliott's team. UVA has had chances to win games against NC State and James Madison, but fell short. This game is on the road, but I don't know that the Cavaliers are going to be able to get up for this game if their season keeps going this way. UVA is ranked 96th in FPI.

Projected record: 5-4

Game 10: at Clemson

ESPN FPI gives Clemson an 82.2% chance to win this game (91.1% in the preseason)

The odds for this game have dipped, but the Tigers are still a heavy favorite in this game, despite their 2-2 start. Clemson still has an elite defense and the game is in Death Valley, one of the toughest places to play in the country. Georgia Tech has not won a game in this series since 2014, but came close in their last trip to Death Valley in 2021. Clemson is ranked 17th in FPI.

Projected Record: 5-5

Game 11: vs. Syracuse

ESPN's FPI gives Syracuse a 71.5% chance to win this game (64.3% in the preseason)

FPI loves Syracuse this season. The Orange are ranked 20th in FPI and are favored pretty heavily against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Syracuse is 4-0 this season but has yet to play a tough opponent. They do play Clemson this weekend and it will be their biggest test to date. Star tight end Oronde Gadsden is out for the season and that is a huge blow to their offense. It will be interesting to revisit these odds in a few weeks because I am not as high on Syracuse.

Projected record: 5-6

Game 12: vs. Georgia

ESPN's FPI gives Georgia an 89.8% chance of winning (94.1% in the preseason)

For the second straight year (according to FPI at least), Georgia Tech will walk into the game against their hated rivals needing a win to make a bowl game. I think Brent Key is making progress with his team, but this is going to be too tall of a task in 2023 and I don't expect this game to be close.

Projected record: 5-7

Looking at the FPI, the games against Bowling Green, Boston College, Virginia, and either Syracuse or North Carolina will determine whether they go to a bowl game. As I said, I think the odds around the Syracuse game will come down and I would not doubt that Georgia Tech might be favored in that game. There is a way to go, but some of the projections are starting to be more favorable to Georgia Tech.

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