Georgia Tech vs. Bowling Green: Official matchup breakdown and prediction

Will Georgia Tech defeat Bowling Green on Saturday?

Jackson Caudell | Sep 29, 2023

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Georgia Tech has an opportunity to get to 3-2 and head into October with some momentum. Bowling Green comes to Bobby Dodd Stadium this weekend with a 1-3 record, but hoping to play spoiler to Brent Key's team.

The Yellow Jackets have not played perfectly, but there has been considerable improvement in some areas. The offense has been one of the most improved in the country and a lot of that can be attributed to quarterback Haynes King and the passing attack. The defense had its best game of the season against Wake Forest, tallying eight sacks and forcing five turnovers. They will hope to build upon that performance against the Falcons this week before they head to Miami next week.

So how does Georgia Tech matchup with Bowling Green and who will win on Saturday? Let's break it down.

Georgia Tech's passing offense vs. Bowling Green's passing defense

The passing game has been a strength for Georgia Tech all season and King is a big reason why.

Through four games at Georgia Tech, King has completed 84-of-129 (65.1 percent) passes for 1,132 yards (283.0 ypg) and 11 touchdowns. King's 1,132 passing yards and 11 touchdowns are the most-ever by a Yellow Jacket through the first four games of a season, topping Joe Hamilton's 1,074 yards and 10 touchdown passes through four contests in 1999 when he went on to finish second in voting for the Heisman Trophy.

King's 11 touchdown passes over the last four games are the most by a Yellow Jacket in any four-game span since Hamilton combined to throw 11 TDs against NC State (3), Virginia (2), Clemson (5) and Wake Forest (1) from Oct. 30-Nov. 20, 1999.

On paper, Bowling Green has the 28th-best passing defense in the country, allowing only 184.2 YPG through the air, but that is a bit deceiving. The Falcons have not faced a team that has thrown the ball much on their defense and that is because the Bowling Green run defense is so poor.

While the Yellow Jackets are going to be without Chase Lane for another game, their wide-receiving corps is still going to be dangerous. True freshman Eric Singleton Jr. has emerged as the top option on the team and has four touchdown catches in just four career games. Malik Rutherford, Dominick Blaylock, Abdul Janneh, and Christian Leary make this a much-improved attack and I think they will have success on Saturday.

The pass blocking by this offensive line has seen a big improvement over last season. True freshman Ethan Mackenny is getting better with each game and both Weston Franklin and Joe Fusile have had good seasons. Jakiah Leftwich is going to start in place of Jordan Williams and he filled in admirably after Williams went down with an injury.

The Yellow Jackets have a big advantage in talent with their passing offense and King could have a career day on Saturday.

Georgia Tech's rushing offense vs. Bowling Green's rushing defense

The Yellow Jackets have been better at running the ball compared to last season, but there is still a ton to work on. Last week, the running game was slowed until the fourth quarter, but I think they will have a chance to spring some guys loose this week.

Jamal Haynes, who made the switch to running back from wide receiver during the offseason, continues to show his versatility as a runner and a pass-catcher, racking up 477 yards from scrimmage through four games. Haynes is valuable as both a runner and a receiver and he has brought explosiveness to the Georgia Tech backfield.

Trey Cooley was slowed last week, being held to only 17 yards on the ground, but I expect him to bounce back this week. Head coach Brent Key said this week that Dontae Smith has been banged up, but will be ready to go this week.

Bowling Green allows 154.2 rushing yards per game, which is 95th in the country. There will be opportunities for Georgia Tech to do damage on the ground and it will be one of the top things to watch on that side of the ball.

Georgia Tech's passing defense vs. Bowling Green's passing offense

The Georgia Tech secondary had a great week against Wake Forest in the last game and safety Jaylon King even got ACC defensive back of the week honors after getting two interceptions. There are going to be more opportunities this week, as Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to turning the ball over. The Falcons are 119th in turnover margin, with a -5 mark for the season.

Bowling Green has played two quarterbacks this season, with neither of them being very good. Former Missouri and Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak has 499 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions this season, with a 56.3% completion percentage. Camden Orth is the other Bowling Green quarterback and he is 15-23 for 206 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions this season.

The offense for Bowling Green lacks a big-time weapon at receiver, but one guy to know is tight end Harold Fannin Jr. He has 11 catches for 144 yards and one touchdown this season.

Bowling Green's offensive line is 75th in the country in sacks allowed and a week after getting eight in one game, the Yellow Jackets defense will hope to be able to get some pressure on the quarterback. Kyle Kennard had four last week and should be able to have a big game on Saturday.

Georgia Tech's rush defense vs. Bowling Green's rushing offense

This is going to be the critical factor in this game. Georgia Tech's run defense has been poor this season and the only way that I can see Bowling Green having a chance to hang around in this game is if the Yellow Jackets do a poor job of tackling and allow explosive runs.

So far this season, Bowling Green has not been able to run the ball. The Falcons average 128.2 yards per game on the ground, which is 94th in the country. The offense as a whole only averages 311.5 yards per game, which is 117th in the country.

Terion Stewart is the top back coming into this game for Bowling Green and he has had a decent season so far, totaling 215 yards on 32 carries and scoring three touchdowns.

Tackling and run defense has been the No. 1 issue in this game so far this season and if they play well on Saturday, this game should not be close. Keep a close eye on the linebacker rotation this week as well. Trenilyas Tatum and Paul Moala are going to be the starters, but guys like Andre White, Kyle Efford, and Braelen Oliver have gotten more reps in recent weeks.

X-Factor

To me, this game comes down to Georgia Tech being able to hit explosive plays on offense and stopping the run against Bowling Green's offense. The Falcons have a hard time throwing the ball when needed and if the Yellow Jackets can put them in obvious passing situations, I think Bowling Green's quarterbacks will turn the ball over. Georgia Tech is a big favorite in this game and the way teams lose as big favorites usually comes down to turning the ball over and giving the other team good field position.

Prediction

This should not be a close game and I don't think it will. This team looks motivated and will look to start a winning streak on Saturday. I think Georgia Tech plays their most complete game of the year and leaves Bobby Dodd with a 3-2 record.

Final Score: Georgia Tech 45, Bowling Green 14

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