Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss: Official matchup breakdown and prediction

Can Georgia Tech pull a shocker on the road against Ole Miss?

Jackson Caudell | Sep 15, 2023

Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss: Official matchup breakdown and prediction /

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

We are nearly 24 hours away from Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss kicking off from Oxford on Saturday night. The No. 17 Rebels will be looking to reach 3-0 and get their second straight win over Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Brent Keys's team finds itself in a familiar position: A big underdog that nobody is giving a chance to win or compete.

Last season as the interim coach, Key led big upsets against Pitt and North Carolina, and in both games, Georgia Tech was a three-touchdown underdog. Georgia Tech has already come close to pulling one upset this year in the opener against Louisville and will be looking to finish the job against Lane Kiffin's Rebels.

So how do these two teams match up and who wins? Let's break it down

Georgia Tech's passing offense vs. Ole Miss passing defense

Haynes King has been fantastic so far for Georgia Tech / Nathaniel Caudell

This might surprise some, but Georgia Tech comes into this game as one of the top offenses statistically in the country. The guy leading the charge has been Texas A&M transfer quarterback Haynes King. King currently leads the ACC in passing yards with 603 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. King has been great through two games, but this is going to be his biggest test yet on the road against the Rebels.

Georgia Tech is going to be without its second-leading wide receiver this week. Chase Lane, who averages over 17 yards per catch, is not going to be able to play this week. That means it will be up to Malik Rutherford, Dominick Blaylock, Christian Leary, and Abdul Janneh to pick up the passing attack in Lane's absence.

There is one guy that could be ready to break out this week and it is true freshman Eric Singleton Jr.

Singleton Jr. has a touchdown catch in every game this year and is averaging 20 yards per catch. The young receiver appears to be a star in the making and he is going to have a chance to shine on Saturday.

So far this season, the tight ends have been a non-factor in the passing game. Transfer Brett Seither has caught two touchdowns in the red zone.

Running backs Jamal Haynes and Trey Cooley have been prominently featured in the passing game. Both players are dangerous with the ball in their hands and will be used this week

The Rebels rank 48th in passing yards allowed per play, but it is hard to get a read on how good the Rebels secondary is. Their first opponent was Mercer and they played Tulane without their star quarterback. King and Georgia Tech will be a nice test to see how good they are.

Georgia Tech's rushing offense vs Ole Miss rushing defense

Georgia Tech has had a strong running game so far this season / Nathaniel Caudell

It is not just the passing game that has been strong for Georgia Tech. The running game has gotten off to a good start in the first two games and there are two guys that are spearheading the attack for Georgia Tech.

Jamal Haynes and Trey Cooley have become the top duo on this team, with Haynes rushing for 164 yards and one touchdown this season while averaging over eight yards per carry. Cooley has 145 yards in two games and leads Georgia Tech with three rushing touchdowns. Cooley is also averaging 7.6 yards per carry.

Ole Miss comes into the game 45th in rushing defense, allowing 102 yards per game and 2.49 yards per rush. Tulane is a solid rushing team, but this might be the biggest test for the Rebels front seven.

Some guys to know on the Ole Miss front seven are linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste and defensive ends Jared Ivey (former Yellow Jacket) and Cedric Johnson.

Key had a lot of good things to say about the Ole Miss defense and first year coordinator Pete Golding this week:

"Yeah it has. a two-game sample size, same as us. They have a new defensive coordinator there who I obviously have some familiarity with but its nothing he has not done in the past, he has put together a defense that fits them and their personality and their personnel and it complements the entire team. They do a good job of being aggressive up front, I think they are 11th in the country in havoc rate and creating negative plays and guys up front, they will to mix up the coverages and vary the coverages on the back end to try and confuse the quarterback and receivers in the passing game and always trying to get an extra hat down in the box when they can.

Pete's done a good job of putting a defense together through the first two games and showing improvement."

Ole Miss is tied for 40th in rushing success rate allowed and is 25th in total EPA. Ole Miss appears to be a good defense, but because Pratt did not play last week, I do not think they have been fully tested yet. Georgia Tech could give them that this week.

Ole Miss passing offense vs. Georgia Tech passing defense

This is going to be a pivotal matchup. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart comes into this game playing very well and he had a big performance last week against Tulane. For the season, Dart has thrown for 601 yards, six touchdowns and one interception this season and Ole Miss is No. 7 in the country in passing success rate and the No. 4 passing offense in the country.

Dart could be without some weapons on the outside this week though. UTSA transfer Zakhari Franklin has not played yet and leading receiver Tre Harris was injured last week against Tulane. Guys like Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade might be the top pass catchers this week.

The Georgia Tech secondary is a strong unit, the best individual unit on the defense. Safeties LaMiles Brooks and Clayton Powell-Lee have had strong seasons, while Myles Sims and Ahmari Harvey will be starting at cornerback.

The concerning thing when facing this passing attack from a Georgia Tech perspective is the lack of a pass rush. Georgia Tech does not have a sack this season and only four tackles for loss. Against a creative playcaller like Kiffin, the Yellow Jackets can't afford to let Dart get comfortable at all this game. If the defensive line can't get it done, defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker is going to have to dial up the blitzes and get in Dart's face.

Ole Miss rushing offense vs Georgia Tech rushing defense

Quinshon Judkins is one of the top running backs in the country / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss had one of the best rushing attacks in the country last season, but it has been a quiet start for the Rebels ground game.

So far this season, Ole Miss is 69th in rushing success rate and 71st in total rushing EPA (Expected Points Added). They have one of the most talented running backs in the country in Quinshon Judkins and Key knows that just because Ole Miss has been unable to run the ball so far, that won't stop them from trying:

"I know what I have seen on tape for two games, they are explosive, have a good quarterback who manages the offense and puts the ball where it is supposed to go and they have one of the best running backs in the country. Statistically, you can't just look at statistics on something. No. 4 is one of the best running backs in the country, they are going to get him loose. You can look and say they are not running the ball. Yeah right. You ask about what I know about somebody, that is Lane Kiffin. He is going to run the football, he is going to get No. 4 going.

We have to be balanced on defense to make sure that we are able to cover and to defend the explosive. But with No. 4, you are looking at one of the best running backs in the country, if not the best running back in the country. You can be rest assured that he is going to do everything he can to get that guy going this week."

If Ole Miss wants to get going on the ground, then they are facing the right defense.

Through two games, Georgia Tech ranks 119th in rushing defense and they have had a hard time tackling. Georgia Tech is going to be challenged this week and they can't let Ole Miss have a get-right game on the ground.

X factor

I think Georgia Tech's defense is going to determine whether the Yellow Jackets can hang around in this game. If they can't get pressure on Dart and the tackling does not improve, it could be a long night for Brent Key's team. Ole Miss is the more talented team, but I think Georgia Tech can score points on the Rebel's defense. Last year, defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker came up with a great game plan against North Carolina and their high-scoring offense and something similar will be needed for Saturday.

Final score prediction

I don't think Georgia Tech is going to walk into Oxford and get completely blown away, but I have too many questions to feel confident in picking an outright upset. The rush defense and the pass rush are major concerns and even if the offense is able to score on Ole Miss, I don't trust that group to get any stops when needed. With Alabama and LSU next up for Ole Miss, this could be an opportunity for Georgia Tech to catch them overlooking them. I think it is close throughout, but Ole Miss makes more plays in the second half to get a win at home.