SP+ predicts Georgia Tech vs Ole Miss score

Can Georgia Tech pull a big upset against Ole Miss on Saturday?

Georgia Tech is traveling to Ole Miss this weekend and will face the No. 17 Rebels in what will be one of the most interesting games of the weekend. Ole Miss is coming off of a tough road matchup against Tulane, who gave them all they can handle despite their star quarterback Michael Pratt not playing. Ole Miss also has games against Alabama and LSU on the horizon and it is certainly possible that Brent Key and his team are being overlooked by Ole Miss. 

The spread for this game has settled in at 20.5 points right now in favor of Ole Miss, but ESPN's Bill Connelly and his SP+ system see this as an even bigger win for the Rebels. Currently, SP+ has Ole Miss favored by 25 points on Saturday and gives them a 93% chance to beat Georgia Tech. The final score prediction from SP+ is 40-14. That would be a season low in points for what has been one of the ACC's best offenses through two games. 

That offense is exactly why Georgia Tech could pull the upset. Quarterback Haynes King leads the ACC in total yards and Georgia Tech is 4th in the ACC in yards per game, averaging 533. The Yellow Jackets are 2nd in passing offense and 5th in rushing offense. Combine the offense with the possibility of Ole Miss looking ahead to their game against Alabama, there are the recipes for an upset. 

Can Georgia Tech's offense give them a chance to win on Saturday? / Nathaniel Caudell

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

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