Updated Game-by-Game ESPN FPI Projections for Georgia Tech after Bowling Green loss

Georgia Tech travels to Miami this weekend for a big matchup

The outlook for Georgia Tech has changed pretty significantly after their stunning loss to Bowling Green. 

The Yellow Jackets were three-touchdown favorites going into the game with the Falcons but were thoroughly outplayed. Georgia Tech had aspirations of making a bowl game this season, but those hopes are on very shaky ground, if not gone completely. 

It is going to be interesting to see how Georgia Tech responds to this loss. They have a road game against No. 17 Miami this week, a game in which they will be massive underdogs. On paper, there are still winnable games against Boston College, Virginia, and Syracuse, but if this team does not right the ship, those can turn into losable games as well. 

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

So how does FPI see the rest of the season playing out for the 2-3 Yellow Jackets? 

Haynes King, Joe Fusile
How many games will Georgia Tech win the rest of the season? / Nathaniel Caudell

Game 6: at Miami

ESPN FPI gives Miami a 91.6% chance to win (88.5 last week)

Game 7: vs. Boston College

ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 73.1% chance to win (79.2% last week)

Game 8: vs. North Carolina

ESPN FPI gives North Carolina a 78.2% chance to win this game (71.4% last week)

Game 9: at Virginia

ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 61.9% chance to win this game (72.8% last week)

Game 10: at Clemson

ESPN FPI gives Clemson a 90.1% chance to win this game (82.2% Last week)

Game 11: vs. Syracuse

ESPN's FPI gives Syracuse a 76.4% chance to win this game (71.5% in the preseason)

Game 12: vs. Georgia

ESPN's FPI gives Georgia an 92.5% chance of winning (89.8% in the preseason)

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Jackson Caudell
JACKSON CAUDELL

Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell