Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series: Can Northwestern Sustain Success?

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Next up, we'll discuss the Northwestern Wildcats, who lost starters Chase Audige and Robbie Beran, but should still carry NCAA Tournament expectations with coach Chris Collins and All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie.

Northwestern went 22-12 overall and 12-8 in the Big Ten in 2022-23, good for a program-best No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Starters Chase Audige and Robbie Beran are gone, but led by All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie, coach Chris Collins' squad has what it takes for another trip to the Big Dance.

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Let's take a look at the Wildcats.

(rankings per On3 Industry Average)

What they lost

• Pro/no eligibility: G Chase Audige, F Tydus Verhoeven
• Transfer portal: F Robbie Beran (Virginia Tech), G Julian Roper (Notre Dame)
• By the numbers: Northwestern lost two every-game starters, including Big Ten Co-Defensive Player of the Year Chase Audige, who averaged 14.1 points, and veteran forward Robbie Beran (7.5 ppg). Verhoeven made nine starts and played 15.8 minutes per game, and Roper played 21.4 minutes per game before an injury limited him to 15 games.

What they gained

• Transfer portal: G Ryan Langborg (Princeton), F Blake Preston (Liberty), G Justin Mullins (Denver), 
• Freshmen: G Parker Strauss (No. 200), G Jordan Clayton (No. 225), F Blake Barkley (No. 296)
• By the numbers: Langborg averaged 12.7 points at Princeton last year, while shooting 36.3 percent from three on 421 career attempts. Preston averaged 6.7 points and 5.1 rebounds as a senior, and Mullins scored 9.8 points per game on 36.5 percent 3-point shooting as a freshman. Northwestern's freshman class is ranked 12th in the Big Ten by On3.

Roster

• Boo Buie, 6-foot-2 senior guard
• Ty Berry, 6-foot-2 senior guard
• Matthew Nicholson, 7-foot senior center
• Blake Preston, 6-foot-9 senior forward
• Ryan Langborg, 6-foot-4 senior guard
• Brooks Barnhizer, 6-foot-6 junior guard
• Justin Mullins, 6-foot-6 sophomore guard
• Nick Martinelli, 6-foot-7 sophomore forward
• Luke Hunger, 6-foot-10 sophomore forward
• Parker Strauss, 6-foot-4 freshman guard
• Jordan Clayton, 6-foot-2 freshman guard
• Blake Barkley, 6-foot-8 freshman forward
• Scholarships available: 1

Northwestern Wildcats guard Boo Buie (0) celebrates his game winning shot against the Indiana Hoosiers at Welsh-Ryan Arena / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Biggest concerns

Will Northwestern be able to sustain its defensive success from last season? The Wildcats ranked third among Big Ten teams in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, third in points allowed per game and second in turnovers forced per game. By slowing down the game's pace, making perimeter ball-handlers uncomfortable and swarming interior scoring threats, the 2022-23 squad won the second-most games in program history and made the program's second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. But in order for those accomplishments to happen again next year, Northwestern will have to maintain its defensive tenacity without Co-Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Chase Audige and physical forwards Robbie Beran and Tydus Verhoeven. It's certainly possible that the defensive system coach Chris Collins has established is strong enough to withstand these losses to a degree that still allows his to reach the NCAA Tournament, but Northwestern will surely experience some defensive regression. The Wildcats' offense was 12th in the Big Ten in scoring, which is partially a result of their 213th-ranked tempo, and losing top-five scorers Audige (14.3 ppg) and Beran (7.5 ppg) will come with an adjustment period on offense, too. Ty Berry's 3-point shooting will need to improve – it dropped from 38.8 percent to 29.1 last year – and he'll be tasked with replacing some of what Audige provided on both ends of the floor. Northwestern added Liberty transfer Blake Preston to help replace Beran. He averaged 6.5 points and 4.9 rebounds across his four-year career, but doesn't provide the 3-point shooting of Beran.

Reasons for optimism

Boo Buie has a chance to be the best guard in the Big Ten next year, and that alone gives Northwestern a chance in just about every game. Buie enters his fifth season in the Big Ten after posting career-high numbers last year, averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals on 40.6 percent shooting. His 3-point shooting dropped 2.3 percent last year, but Buie established himself as a clutch late game scorer and finished fifth in the Big Ten in points. Northwestern will go as Buie goes next season, but Collins did well to add and retain important players in supporting roles. The Wildcats return starting guard Ty Berry and center Matthew Nicholson, who was one of the most-improved players in the Big Ten last season. Nicholson anchored Northwestern's interior defense with 1.2 blocks per game and provided efficient scoring with a 61.4 field goal percentage. Brooks Barnhizer's numbers don't jump off the page – he averaged 7.6 points and 4.9 rebounds on 31 percent 3-point shooting – but he developed a knack for making winning plays last season and could be in line for another big jump in production next season. Northwestern's biggest addition of the offseason was transfer Ryan Langborg, a 6-foot-4 guard who averaged 18.7 points during Princeton's Sweet 16 run last season. While Langborg likely won't fill the defensive void left by Audige, he's a more consistent 3-point shooter at 36.3 percent for his career.

The bottom line

Coach Chris Collins is responsible for leading Northwestern to its only two NCAA Tournament appearances, and despite the losses of Chase Audige and Robbie Beran, that should be the expectation again in 2023-24, led by potential first-team All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie, though it'll be close.

On Wednesday, look forward to the next part of our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, featuring the Ohio State Buckeyes.

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