Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against Purdue

Here are three keys to the game and a score prediction for the 2023 Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game between Indiana and Purdue.

Jack Ankony | Nov 24, 2023

Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against Purdue /

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – The 2023 season comes to an end for Indiana and Purdue on Saturday, and that might be a good thing for both sides.

The last two games have ended in heartbreak for Indiana, losing to Michigan State and Illinois on the final play. In year one of the Ryan Walters era, Purdue has lost five of its last six games, most recently 23-15 at Northwestern.

But they have one last shot to end the year on a high note, competing in the annual Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game. The loser will end the season with the worst record in the Big Ten before it expands to 18 teams in 2024.

Kickoff between the Hoosiers and Boilermakers is scheduled for Noon ET at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Here are three keys to the game, plus a score prediction.

Red zone conversions

Indiana and Purdue are two of the worst red zone teams in the Big Ten, and that's reflected in their 3-8 records.

Indiana has scored on 80.6% of its red zone trips this year and Purdue just 71.1%. Those figures rank 12th and 13th in the Big Ten, respectively. They're also having similar struggles getting stops, with Hoosiers tied for 13th and Purdue ranked 11th in defensive red zone conversion rate. In a game that's expected to be close, settling for field goals could be a deciding factor. Purdue has dealt with kicker injuries this season, but Ben Freehill and Julio Macias are a combined 5-for-13 on field goals.

Protect Sorsby

The Boilermakers rank second in the Big Ten with 33 sacks this season. They're led by Nic Scourton with eight and Kydran Jenkins with 7.5, two players who could have a significant impact on Saturday's game. Scourton missed last week's loss to Northwestern with an injury, but coach Ryan Walters expects him to play against Indiana.

They'll go against an Indiana offensive line that has made noticeable improvements under first-year position coach Bob Bostad. Offensive line play was a major area of struggle in 2021 and 2022, but the Hoosiers rank middle of the pack in sacks allowed among Big Ten teams and have steadily improved their run game this year. Keeping quarterback Brendan Sorsby on his feet is of utmost importance Saturday.

Slow down Boilermakers' run game

Purdue ranks fourth in the Big Ten in rushing, thanks to a two-man attack with Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy. Mockobee is sixth among conference rushers with 765 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. Though he has 105 attempts compared to Mockobee's 154, Tracy has racked up 668 yards on 6.5 yards per carry.

Conversely, Indiana has one of the worst run defenses, ranking 13th in the Big Ten with 153.2 rushing yards allowed per game. Two weeks ago, Illinois' Reggie Love III ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns, but the Hoosiers bounced back last week against Michigan State, which averaged just 2.3 yards on 33 carries. Last year, Mockobee ran for 99 yards and a touchdown against Indiana on 15 attempts.

Score prediction

Purdue 27, Indiana 24

Indiana is coming off back-to-back losses on the last play of the game, allowing an Illinois touchdown in overtime and missing a field goal in the final seconds against Michigan State. Similarly, Indiana blew a legitimate upset bid at No. 11 Penn State in October, and got stuffed at the goal line with a chance to beat No. 9 Louisville in September. Without simplifying Indiana's struggles, it's a team that seemingly finds new ways to lose every season. Against fellow 3-8 squads, expect a back-and-forth game throughout the afternoon. But at this point, it's hard to trust Indiana to finish strong.

Red zone conversions

Protect Sorsby

Slow down Boilermakers' run game

Score prediction

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