Miami vs Houston: NCAA Tournament Preview & Prediction

Miami versus Houston game analysis, matchups, statistics and a final score prediction

Article photo of Miami's Jim Larrañaga and Houston's Kelvin Sampson; photo credits to to David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports & Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 has arrived with the Miami Hurricanes taking on the Houston Cougars.

Here’s a look at the key components of tonight’s contest, including the starting lineups, questions regarding the primary players and storylines to watch, and a final score prediction.

RELATED: Miami Game Day: Time, TV, Statistics, and Betting Odds

Starting Lineups

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Miami Hurricanes

G

Nijel Pack

, 6-0, 185, 13.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg

G

Isaiah Wong

, 6-4, 185, 16.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.3 apg

G

Wooga Poplar

, 6-5, 190, 8.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg

G

Jordan Miller

, 6-7, 195, 15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.6 apg

F

Norchad Omier

, 6-7, 250, 13.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.2 apg

Houston Cougars

G

Marcus Sasser

, 6-2, 195, 16.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.1 apg

G

Jamal Shead

, 6-1, 195, 10.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 5.4 apg

G

Tramon Mark

, 6-5, 195, 10.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.8 apg

F

Jarace Walker

, 6-8, 240, 11.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.7 apg

F

J’Wan Roberts

, 6-7, 230, 10.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.2 apg

There will be many interesting storylines that play out with tonight’s ball game. Against Indiana, Miami’s speed was often too much for the Hoosiers, especially on the perimeter.

Against the Cougars, the Hurricanes will face a much more athletic and speedy team overall. That leads to the first question for tonight’s game.

Which team’s guards can get to the basket more?

Both teams possess tremendous ball handlers and players that have shown they do not mind hitting the deck after being fouled near the hoop. The grittier, more hard-nosed group of guards will have an excellent chance to impact the game in many ways, starting with old-fashioned 2-point buckets that come from layups and dunks.

Those drives also set up kick outs to shooters around the edge of the 3-point line. There’s also individual matchups, based on players often guarding one another.

Anytime that Houston’s Marcus Sasser goes against Miami’s Nijel Pack, that’s an interesting combination. Different types of players that often run the offense (in all honesty, both teams have multiple point guards/lead guards based on how each team’s season has gone).

Sasser has a little more size, while Pack’s first-step quickness has proven to be tremendous. There will be other matchups to watch, too.

Whenever Miami and ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong has the basketball, Tramon Mark could be a player that Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson wants on him.

Size. That’s the reason. Mark’s 6-foot-5 frame and long arms will be interesting to drive by, as well as shoot over.

Overall, expect both teams to switch defenders on screens quite often; each squad has tremendous athleticism so the listed matchups will be jumbled from one play to the next.

Can the Canes rebound with the Cougars?

The rebounding situation will be pivotal, but in a different manner than it’s usually seen.

Houston has been the nation’s No. 7 rebounding team with a plus-7.5 margin on the glass. Miami, meanwhile, has earned only a plus-3.1 rebounding margin this season, good for No. 79 nationally.

Now, both of these teams were constructed in a similar fashion: Speed was placed at a premium over height. Neither team starts a true 7-foot center, or anything close really.

That means it’s more about positioning, players knowing the opponent’s tendencies, and sheer grit. This will be a game where neither team will just out-athlete the other team like each squad did under the backboards for much of the regular season.

Which team has better shot selection?

With both teams having excellent shooters, that does not mean that even one poor possession will be acceptable. Point blank, this could be one of those grind-it-out contests.

A score in the mid-60s to low 70s seems about right, so one of Miami or Houston might win this game based on being smart with the basketball and taking quality shots.

It sounds simple, but the athletes for each team’s defenses have forced poor decisions from opposing teams all season long. The mental fortitude of offensive players for both teams will be tested.

Prediction

Tonight’s game will be a back and forth affair. The difference will be Houston’s combination of post players – Jarace Walker and J’Wan Roberts – snagging a few more rebounds than Miami, and that will provide Sasser and other Cougars with additional chances to shoot the basketball. Houston wins with a score on its final possession.

Houston 69 Miami 67

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