NCAA Tournament: Midwest Regional game-by-game breakdown

March Madness has arrived!

It's officially NCAA Tournament week, with all the March Madness action kicking off on Tuesday and Wednesday with First Four games. The bracket was officially released Sunday, with 68 teams set to compete for a national title. 

Here, we're going to take a look at the games in the Midwest Regional, which features Zach Edey and No. 1 Purdue along with some two popular upset picks in McNeese and Samford.

• NCAA Tournament: East Regional game-by-game breakdown
  
• NCAA Tournament: South Regional game-by-game breakdown
  
• NCAA Tournament: West Regional game-by-game breakdown

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 MTST/Grambling

Can the Boilermakers overcome the demons of last year's loss to a No. 16 seed? Probably. They're 29-4 and have the likely national player of the year in Zach Edey. Braden Smith gives them a standout point guard to run the show and they have excellent wings. So long as Edey does what he does and the rest of the Boilermakers shoot above 40%, they're going to be very tough to handle. 

Our pick: Purdue by 15

Why? Purdue is far and away superior to almost every team they play and they'll come in extra focused as they exercise the 16-seed demons. 

No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU

TCU, by the data, is more efficient on both ends of the floor, is a better rebounding team, though Utah State enters as the higher seed and with a bit of an edge after the regular-season Mountain West champs were predicted by most to be a 5, 6 or 7 seed. One word to describe this matchup: Smashmouth. TCU has lost 10 straight tourney games and Utah State hasn't won in the NCAA Tournament since 2001. 

Our pick: Utah State by 2

Why? TCU is arguably a worse draw for Purdue in the second round, but we're going with Utah State's experience coupled with TCU's inability to crack through with a tourney win in their last 10 tries. 

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese

McNeese is a very popular upset pick and for good reason. They slow down the game, play stingy defense and hit 38.8% of their 3s, which is tied for fourth in the country. They're 30-3 overall, but their best wins were early in the season at VCU and at Michigan. Gonzaga boasts the eighth-most efficient offense in the nation, a top-15 two-point defense and it rebounds and takes care of the ball. Can it maintain that efficiency against a McNeese team that turns over opponents on 23% of possessions?

Our pick: Gonzaga by 10

Why? The pressure is arguably on McNeese because it's a popular Cinderella pick. We're not buying it and think the Zags are coming in overlooked and underrated. 

McNeese's Christian Shumate is blocked by TAMUCC's Stephen Giwa during the game at the American Bank Center on Monday, Jan. 22, 2024, in Corpus Christi, Texas :: © Angela Piazza/Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford

Samford is a popular upset selection in part because Kansas is 9-9 since starting the season 13-1. The Jayhawks are getting Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. back from injury after both missed the Big 12 Tournament, but the Jayhawks were struggling even when they were on the floor in February and early March. Kansas has terrific interior defense, but it ranks 210th in 3-point defense. If Samford, which is the eighth-best 3-point shooting team in the nation, can get hot, it has a chance. 

Our pick: Kansas by 6

Why? The Jayhawks defense might just be too much for Samford. We could see this one giving Kansas a scare, but with Dickinson and McCullar back from injuries, Bill Self's team should win at least one tourney game. 

No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon

Only Houston, Connecticut and Purdue (all 13-3) were better on the road and neutral sites this season than South Carolina (12-4). By the numbers, this is arguably the most evenly matched game in the opening two full days of the tournament. 

Our pick: South Carolina by 3

Why? The Gamecocks' ability to win away from home. Oregon comes in riding a high, but South Carolina presents some real challenges and is perhaps being slept on as a team that has 26 wins and only seven losses. 

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron

There is nothing Creighton doesn't do well. It's 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 28th defensively, it shoots the 3, defends, rebounds, makes free throws and takes care of the basketball. It's also big. That said, Akron has four starters who were part of the 2021 team that nearly upset UCLA in the tourney. If Akron can keep the score low, it has a shot in this one. 

Our pick: Akron by 1

Why? A giant has to fall, right? The Zips have a ton of tourney experience, and we can see a scenario where Akron's pace takes Creighton out of rhythm, and if the shots are falling early, Creighton could tighten up and play into Akron's favor.

Mar 14, 2024; New York City, NY, USA; Creighton Bluejays guard Steven Ashworth (1) and center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) and forward Mason Miller (13) and guard Trey Alexander (23) react during the first half against the Providence Friars at Madison Square Garden / Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Virginia or Colorado State

The Longhorns, one of the more solid offensive and defensive teams in the tournament, and they'll either face the elite defense of Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers or the Colorado State Rams, who are part of a deep Mountain West. Texas is led by Max Abmas, who was with tournament darling Oral Roberts and led them to two wins at a No. 15 seed in 2021. 

Our pick: Colorado State by 3

Why? Momentum could favor the winner of Virginia or Colorado State, and we're going to pick the Rams to come out of the First Four and then upset Texas by a hair. It's hard to pick against a tourney star like Abmas, but Niko Medved is an incredible coach, and point guard Isaiah Stevens could match or outperform Abmas. 

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's

Here we have the third-best defensive team in the country facing the 314th-best offensive team (based on adjusted ratings from KenPom) in the nation going head to head. Tennessee appears destined for the Round of 32. 

Our pick: Tennessee by 20

Why? They're favored by 20 and we think Vegas has this one right. Nobody on Saint Peter's can stop Tennessee stud Dalton Knecht. 

Mar 15, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers players walk the handshake line after a loss against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bridgestone Arena / Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports