NCAA Tournament: South Regional game-by-game breakdown

Here's a look at each of the games in the South Regional.

Nolan O'Hara | Mar 18, 2024

NCAA Tournament: South Regional game-by-game breakdown /

It's officially NCAA Tournament week, with all the March Madness action kicking off on Tuesday and Wednesday with First Four games. The bracket was officially released Sunday, with 68 teams set to compete for a national title.

Here, we're going to take a look at the games in the South Regional, which features a pair of Big Ten teams in No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 8 Nebraska. Here's a look at the matchups:

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Longwood

Houston was the top-ranked team in the country until a 69-41 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game. But the Cougars still came in at No. 2 in the final Associated Press poll, and for good reason. They've only lost four games all season — two to the Cyclones, one to TCU and another to Kansas — and have a trio of players, led by L.J. Cryer, that together average a combined 40.6 points per game. Longwood, meanwhile, booked its ticket to the NCAA Tournament by knocking off top-seeded High Point on its way to an 85-59 victory over UNC Asheville in the Big South Conference title game. Longwood also has a trio of players who average double-digit point totals.

Our pick: Houston by 25

Why? DraftKings has Houston as a 22-point favorite for this one, and we think the Cougars will be motivated after the loss in the Big 12 final.

Houston guard Jamal Shead (1) looks to pass the ball during the second half against Iowa State at Fertitta Center in Houston on Feb. 19, 2024. — Houston guard Jamal Shead (1) looks to pass the ball during the second half against Iowa State at Fertitta Center in Houston on Feb. 19, 2024 :: Troy Taormina / USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Nebraska lost to eventual Big Ten champion Illinois 98-87 in the Big Ten semifinals, but the Cornhuskers still have reason to be optimistic in the Big Dance. They have a quartet of players that together average 52.2 points per game. And they've been plenty battle-tested. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is coming off a 95-90 loss to Florida in the Southeastern Conference semifinals. Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford offer a big scoring punch for the Aggies, together averaging 34.9 points per game. DraftKings expects a good game, with the Cornhuskers being a three-point favorite, and so do we.

Our pick: Nebraska by 2

Why? We like the Huskers to edge out the Aggies, but we may just be Big Ten homers.

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison

Wisconsin made a valiant run during the Big Ten Tournament before falling to Illinois in the title game, but the Badgers showed just how dangerous they can be. Ranked No. 23 in the final AP poll, the Badgers have experience, and AJ Storr, who averages a team-leading 16.9 points per game, looked every part of a dominant guard during the conference tournament. James Madison, meanwhile, has put together a dominant season in its own right. The Dukes crushed Arkansas State 91-71 for the Sun Belt Conference title and have a 31-3 record. While their competition hasn't been on the level of the Big Ten, the Dukes did win their lone game against a Big Ten opponent — a 79-76 overtime victory over Michigan State in their season opener on Nov. 6. They have a trio of double-digit scorers, led by Terrence Edwards Jr.'s 17.4 points per contest.

Our pick: Wisconsin by 10

Why? DraftKings likes the Badgers by 5.5 points, and while we may have liked the Dukes against a couple of the other five seeds, we don't like them against the Badgers after the potential they showed in the Big Ten Tournament.

No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont

Duke bowed out of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament quickly, falling 74-69 in the quarterfinals to eventual champion North Carolina State. But the Blue Devils, ranked No. 13 in the final AP poll, have a deep and balanced scoring attack with five players averaging double figures — Kyle Filipowski leading the charge at 17.1 points per game. Vermont won the America East Conference title with a 66-61 victory over UMass Lowell in the title game and has a 28-6 record this season. And Vermont does have a win over an NCAA Tournament team in Yale this season.

Our pick: Duke by 15

Why? Vermont just doesn't seem to have enough to contend with a Blue Blood. DraftKings likes the Blue Devils by 11.5 points, and we like them to cover.

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 NC State

Texas Tech couldn't get the better of Houston in the Big 12 semifinals, but the Red Raiders still finished the season within the AP Top 25 at No. 22. Their five double-digit point scorers combine for 60.8 points per game in a deep and balanced offensive attack. North Carolina State, meanwhile, is coming off a strong run to the ACC title, including an 84-76 victory over North Carolina in the championship game. The Wolfpack have a quartet of double-digit scorers themselves, led by DJ Horne's 16.9 points per game. And they might just be getting hot at the right time.

Our pick: NC State by 7

Why? The Red Raiders are a 4.5-point favorite, but we think the Wolfpack might be poised to make a run.

North Carolina State guard DJ Horne (0) dribbles past the North Carolina defense during the second half at Capital One Arena in Washington on March 16, 2024. — North Carolina State guard DJ Horne (0) dribbles past the North Carolina defense during the second half at Capital One Arena in Washington on March 16, 2024 :: Amber Searls / USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oakland

Kentucky didn't have the run it was looking for in the SEC Tournament, falling 97-87 to Texas A&M in the quarterfinals. But the 12th-ranked Wildcats will be looking to deliver a better showing in the Big Dance, with Antonio Reeves leading the charge. Reeves averages 20 points per game and is one of five Wildcats players who average double-digit point totals. Per usual, the Wildcats have no shortage of contributors. Meanwhile, Oakland is coming off a Horizon League title after beating Milwaukee 83-76 in the championship game. The Golden Grizzlies have a quartet of double-digit point scorers who together average 52.4 points per game. But will that be enough to contend with one of college basketball's perennial powers? DraftKings doesn't think so, putting Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite.

Our pick: Kentucky by 20

Why? This might just have the makings of a blowout.

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Boise State OR Colorado

Florida lost the SEC title game 86-67 to Auburn, but perhaps a bigger loss for the Gators was losing starting center Micah Handlogten during the game to a fractured leg. The 17th-ranked Gators do, however, still have a quartet of players who average double digits. They'll play either Boise State, a 22-10 team which lost to Mountain West champion New Mexico in the tournament quarterfinals, or Colorado, a 24-10 team that made it to the Pac-12 championship game but fell to Oregon.

Our pick: Boise State/Colorado by 3

Why? Will the Gators be able to overcome the loss of Handlogten against a team that already has a First Four game under its belt? We think that's the type of injury that paves the way for an upset, whether it's by Boise State or Colorado.

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 16 Western Kentucky

Marquette made a run to the championship game in the Big East Tournament but fell 73-57 to top-ranked Connecticut, the top overall seed in the tournament. Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek together average 31.8 points per game for the eighth-ranked Golden Eagles, while two other players also average double digits. Western Kentucky won the Conference USA title with a 78-71 win over UTEP in the title game and has a 22-11 record this season. Don McHenry leads the Hilltoppers with 15.2 points per game.

Our pick: Marquette by 20

Why? Marquette is a 15.5-point favorite in this first-round matchup and the Hilltoppers won't have nearly enough to hang with the Golden Eagles.