NCAA Tournament: West Regional game-by-game breakdown

A loaded regional featuring two of the top teams in the country in North Carolina and Arizona.

It's officially NCAA Tournament week, with all the March Madness action kicking off on Tuesday and Wednesday with First Four games. The bracket was officially released Sunday, with 68 teams set to compete for a national title. 

It should be an exciting week of action!

Here, we're going to take a look at the games in the West Regional, which features a scary top four featuring North Carolina, Arizona, Baylor and Alabama. 

• NCAA Tournament: Midwest Regional game-by-game breakdown
• NCAA Tournament: East Regional game-by-game breakdown
• NCAA Tournament: South Regional game-by-game breakdown

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Howard or Wagner

The Tar Heels have the fifth-best odds to cut down the nets when it's all said and done, and Howard or Wagner will stand little chance in this matchup. UNC is 26th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels also make their free throws, limit turnovers and rebound really well. 

Our pick: North Carolina by 30

Why? UNC is a monster. That's why. 

No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Mississippi State has the height to matchup well in the frontcourt, and perhaps even dominant the Spartans, who are uncharacteristically a terrible rebounding team. By the numbers, Mississippi State is also the sixth-best team in 3-point defense in the nation. Sparty has lost five of their last seven games, but they did take down a powerful Illinois team not that long ago, so if they're clicking on offense they can be dangerous. It just hasn't happened very often. 

Our pick: Michigan State by 2

Why? Tom Izzo in March is hard to pick against. Plus, Malik Hall said he thinks the Spartans can win it all. He has to back that up now with a big first game. 

No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon

The Gaels are the best rebounding team in the country. They are 30th in adjusted offense efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. Grand Canyon is 29-4 but has played a weak schedule, though it did hand San Diego State a loss back in early December. That said, it returns a lot of players from last year's tourney team that gave Gonzaga all it could handle before losing 82-70. The Lopes have length, depth and are great at getting to the free-throw line. Can they handle one of the hottest teams in the country in Saint Mary's?

Our pick: Grand Canyon by 2

Why? Saint Mary's is a terrific all-around team, but it is prone to cold nights in the gym. If it happens here, Grand Canyon can take advantage. 

Grand Canyon Lopes guard Collin Moore (8) jumps to shoot the ball against the Abilene Christian Wildcats at Grand Canyon University Arena in Phoenix on Jan. 11, 2024 :: © Diannie Chavez/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston

Few teams play with the speed and tenacity of Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have a tendency to live and die by the 3. As the selection committee would have it, Charleston is one of only three teams in the nation attempting more 3s per game than Alabama, albeit it only makes 34.5% of its 3s compared to Alabama at 36.5%. 'Bama is tested, Charleston is not. It lost its only Quad 1 game to Florida Atlantic by 16 points and it went 1-2 in Quad 2 games. This could be a shootout with little defense, so prepare to be entertained. 

Our pick: Alabama by 20

Why? This is like Paul Walker trying to race Vin Diesel for the first time in "Fast & Furious." Alabama is Vin Diesel and Alabama is going to win this race. 

No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico

Clemson plays one of the slower tempos in the country (256th), while Richard Pitino's Lobos run and gun at the eighth-fastest tempo in the land, according to KenPom. If great guard play matters in the tourney, then New Mexico has three of them with experience: Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Donovan Dent, who all average more than 14 points per game. The Lobos also have two bigs – J.T. Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph – who average near double-doubles. Two other key notes: Clemson is very turnover prone but it's one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country.

Our pick: New Mexico by 10

Why? Guard play. We like New Mexico's guards (and bigs) and we like the fact that Pitino has won in the NCAA tourney before (at Minnesota). 

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate

Baylor boasts six players who score in double figures. It controls the pace of games and is sixth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's also No. 4 nationally in 3-point percentage (38.8%). It's also an excellent rebounding team, it stays out of foul trouble and it is tested, having played the toughest schedule in the country. That said, the Bears are 4-4 in their last eight with losses to BYU, Houston, Texas Tech and Iowa State. Colgate played Arizona and Illinois earlier in the season and lost by 25 and 17 points, respectively. 

Our pick: Baylor by 30

Why? The Bears have the ability to beat any team in the country. They're awesome from top to bottom and they have been battle tested. 

Mar 15, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears watch Iowa State Cyclones shoot a technical free throw during the first half at T-Mobile Center / Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada

The data says Dayton is slightly better on offense while Nevada is quite a bit better on defense. Nevada hits the limited number of 3s it takes while Dayton shoots a ton of 3s and connects at a rate that is third best in the country (40.2%). Nevada is favored by one point in what most believe to be a toss-up game. 

Our pick: Dayton by 3

Why? The Flyers can light it up from deep and they're difficult to play against. This one will be tight from start to finish, but we'll go with Dayton at the wire. 

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Long Beach State

Dan Monson getting fired and then leading Long Beach State to the Big West title and a tourney berth is the best story entering the action, but barring a miraculous upset his tenure at LBS will be ending soon. Arizona is seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency and it's big, plays solid defense and is a terrific rebounding team. When Caleb Love is going good, the Wildcats are very, very tough to handle. 

Our pick: Arizona by 20

Why? Caleb Love. He's a tournament darling and Arizona will be a tough out. 

Mar 15, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Oumar Ballo (11) and forward Keshad Johnson (16) celebrate in the first half against the Oregon Ducks at T-Mobile Arena / Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports