Big Ten Tournament Preview: Can Penn State Beat Illinois Again?

A third win over Illinois might be enough to get the Lions into the NCAA Tournament.

Penn State hasn't hosted an NCAA Tournament bracket-release party in a while. A win over Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament would make their Sunday watch gathering a bit less stressful.

Tenth-seeded Penn State meets No. 7 Illinois on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament having swept their two-game season series but also understanding the fragility of that history. The Lions played two of their better games this season, particularly as shooters, against the Illini and need to approximate those performances at the United Center.

Penn State's NCAA Tournament path winds through some complicated math and the tangential results of other conference tournaments. But the Lions can clear that path with a third win over Illinois.

Penn State (19-12) vs. Illinois (20-11)

• When: 6:30 p.m. ET Thursday
• Where: United Center, Chicago
• TV: Big Ten Network
• Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)
• Live Stats: Follow at SI.com
• Betting Line: Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite, according to SI Sportsbook
• Penn State NET Ranking: 56
• Illinois NET Ranking: 33
• Series History: Illinois leads 32-21
• Last Meeting: Penn State 93-81 in February
• Streaks: Penn State has won 2 straight
• Big Ten Tournament History: Illinois is 3-0 vs. Penn State (last meeting in 2008)

About the Lions: They have been lights-out twice against Illinois. Will the third time bring another charm? Penn State has shot a combined 54.1 percent against Illinois, nearly 8 percent above its season average, and a sharp 46.2 percent from 3-point range. The Lions averaged 72.4 points per game this season yet 83.5 vs. the Illini.

Clearly, Penn State exploited defensive weaknesses and matchup advantages in both games against Illinois. Have the Illini closed the gap through a self-scout? That's a key determinant, as is Penn State's ability to replicate its shooting successes.

Sure, as coach Micah Shrewsberry said, 3-point success, transition defense and play construction will mean more Thursday than external intangibles. Still, expectations matter. Penn State is on the doorstep of its first NCAA Tournament bid in 12 years with what Ken Pomeroy calls the nation's oldest starting lineup. Yet the Lions must distract themselves from those expectations, theirs and the fan base's, for at least one more huge game. "As much as you want to shut off the internet or the TV, you've still got to go to class or the grocery store," Shrewsberry said. "Somebody's going to say something about something. You can’t shut everything completely off. ... Let’s just play our best basketball."

About the Illini: Shrewsberry called Illinois one of the Big Ten's most talented teams that causes multiple problems. But offensively, the Illini are erratic. They rank third in the Big Ten in scoring despite shooting 45 percent from the field (ninth in the conference). Terrence Shannon Jr., a first-team All-Big Ten guard, averages 17 points per game for the Big Ten's worst 3-point shooting team (31 percent). In fact, Illinois and Arizona State are the nation's only teams with winning conference records despite shooting under 30 percent in conference games. The Illini scored a season-low 59 points in their home loss to Penn State in December. As a result, Shrewsberry expects the Illini to be incentivized. "They’re not sitting there saying, 'Oh, man, we've got to play Penn State,'" Shrewsberry said. "Their hair is probably on fire getting ready to come play us."

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.