Penn State Bracketology, Explained

The Lions are dancing on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Here's what the data says about their chances.

Updated at 11 a.m. March 12.

Penn State is tracking NCAA Tournament Bracketology once again, a boost for the program's long-suffering brand and fans and a moment for second-year coach Micah Shrewsberry to take a bow and (likely) collect a bonus.

The Lions have clinched their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2011 after making the Big Ten Tournament final with wins over Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana. After meeting Purdue in Sunday's Big Ten final, the Lions will watch the tournament selection show from Chicago wondering who and where, not if.

As a 22-win Big Ten finalist, Penn Sate offers the NCAA Selection Committee a significant resume to consider. Further, Shrewsberry said that the Lions are peaking at the right time, which is true. But the past still matters.

The Bracketology sites and databases, which didn't know what to make of the Lions last week, have joined their bandwagon. So here's the last call for March Madness projections as Penn State prepares to meet Purdue for the Big Ten Tournament title.

RELATED: Time for Penn State to make basketball a priority

The Case for Penn State in the NCAA Tournament

According to the Teamrankings site, which does just that, Penn State's a statistical lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Teamrankings now gives the Lions a 99 percent chance of making the field. Those odds were just 47 percent last Wednesday. 

Penn State clawed its way back into tournament contention by winning eight of its last nine games, a stretch that included six of its eight Quad 1 victories this season. According to CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, Quad 1 wins, notably those on the road, are among the key metrics the NCAA selection committee will use to send tournament invitations.

Another is overall strength of schedule, where Penn State fares pretty well. The Lions rank 28th in NCAA NET strength of schedule and 21st in average opponent NET ranking. According to basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy, Penn State's adjusted SOS ranking is 31.

So the Lions have earned their tournament bona fides, as Bracket Matrix has found. The site basically tracks the internet for bracket projections.

On Thursday, before playing Illinois, Penn State appeared in the field on 83 of 92 projections. On Sunday morning, the Lions landed on all 105 projections and appear to be in solid position for at least a 10 seed. 

So there's much more positive than negative. However...

The Questions Penn State Faces Entering the NCAA Tournament

Two key points stand out: non-conference strength of schedule and NET ranking. These could affect Penn State's seed or regional designation.

The Lions' non-conference SOS ranking is 277, according to the NCAA. Ken Pomeroy's adjusted noncon ranking is even worse (303).

Their best noncon win is over Furman (88 NET), which made the NCAA Tournament as the Southern Conference champ. Penn State would love second chances at Virginia Tech (a 61-59 loss) and Clemson (a 101-94 double-overtime loss).

Yet the Lions finally moved the NET needle after beating Indiana in the Big Ten semifinals, climbing six spots to No. 49. Remember that  Penn State fell one spot to 55th after its overtime win over Northwestern (NET 41) in the quarterfinals. So some NET respect arrived.

Penn State is in the NCAA Tournament field, but that NET still remains a quirky note. Ken Pomeroy likes the Lions more, by the way; he has them at No. 43.

A Sampling of Penn State Bracketology

As of Sunday:

Sports Illustrated calls Penn State a "good test case" to evaluate how the selection committee views March surges. SI has Penn State as a No. 9 seed but "there's a case to be made that it should be higher."

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm inched Penn State upward to a No. 9 seed, facing No. 8 Auburn in the Midwest Region.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi lists the Lions to No. 10 seeds, playing seventh-seeded Missouri in the South Region. 

FOX Sports' Mike DeCourcy also has Penn State playing Missouri in a 10-7 game, but in the West Region. 

The Sporting News projects Penn State as a 10 seed.

What's Next for Penn State?

The 10th-seeded Lions will play in their first Big Ten Tournament title game since 2011. Penn State faces top-seeded Purdue on Sunday at the United Center in Chicago. The Boilermakers swept the season series, beating Penn State 76-63 at the Palestra in Philadelphia and 80-60 in West Lafayette.

Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. 

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.