What to Make of Early Win Total Numbers for Pitt
PITTSBURGH -- With spring ball over for every program around the country and kickoff of the 2023 college football season a measly five months away, oddsmakers feel confident enough to release win total lines for teams around the country, including the Pitt Panthers.
While it is early, the consensus reflects little confidence that Pitt's recent success over the past two seasons - consecutive years with a ranked finish and 20 combined wins over the past two years - is sustainable. Both BetMGM and Betonline.ag have the Panthers' win total line pegged at 6.5.
Make no mistake, the Panthers are facing a much tougher schedule than a year ago with a retooled roster that seeks to replace roughly half of its starting lineup - the climb to a cover is not guaranteed but that number is surprisingly low for a program that has shown Pitt's kind of consistency during head coach Pat Narduzzi's tenure.
Far from world-beaters, the Panthers have been largely unspectacular but - as far as win totals go - solid for the vast majority of Narduzzi's tenure. His teams have fallen short of 6.5 wins just twice in his eight-year tenure and one of those instances came during the covid year.
Even with games against Florida State, Notre Dame and North Carolina on the schedule, you don't even have to squint to find seven or more wins.
Wofford, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Boston College are likely wins. Wofford is an FCS program so that one is self-explanatory. As for the Hokies, Orange and Eagles, the Panthers are a combined 11-6 against them during the Narduzzi Era and 6-2 since 2018. I'm playing the odds and giving those three to the Panthers.
I suppose anything can happen in a Backyard Brawl, but there's little evidence that the Mountaineers have taken any steps forward since losing in Pittsburgh last year. I'll believe it when I see it.
Then you move to the games that are winnable, but not slam dunks - Cincinnati, North Carolina, Louisville, Duke and Wake Forest all fall into this category for me. Three of those four come at home and the other two (Duke and Wake Forest) don't pose particularly intimidating environments. The Panthers also haven't lost to either the Devils or Deacons for as long as Narduzzi's been in Pittsburgh.
Even if Pitt loses those remaining two games to presumed preseason top-20 teams in Florida State and Notre Dame and lays an inexplicable egg or two, the path to seven or more wins seems not just clear but probable.
The roster turnover is real but it's not something this program hasn't dealt with before. Afraid that Phil Jurkovec isn't the quarterback that was promised? Neither was Kedon Slovis and he was under center for seven wins. The receiver room is thin but the top line of wideouts certainly looks improved. Rodney Hammond is a proven commodity coming out of the backfield. The cornerbacks are the same and - albeit in limited action - the safeties appear not to have missed a beat after losing a pair of two-year starters. Two of the three starting linebackers are back. As long as Charlie Partridge is leading the defensive line, I won't worry about that position. The offensive line lost starting experience but the next wave benefited from midseason injuries by gaining playing time.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that, was I a betting man, the over on 6.5 wins looks mightily attractive. This program deserves more of the benefit of the doubt than it's getting right now.
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