Never Too Early! Projecting The 2023-24 Big 12 Bowl Games
Week 0 is still another weekend away, but we're already thinking ahead to Bowl Season. In the final year of four playoff teams before the field expands to 12, so too may this be the final year of bowl "normalcy" (as "normal" as Bowl season can be). This year, my preseason projections land nine Big 12 teams with bowl eligibility (min. six wins, no more than one can be against FCS competition).
So, let's take a look at bowl tie-ins and project where these nine bowl-eligible teams might land, and who they might play.
You can find my full Big 12 predictions here.
2023-24 Big 12 Bowl Game Predictions
Based on bowl tie-ins as of Aug. 16, 2023. Tie-ins and conference affiliations are constantly shifting and may do so over the course of the season.
Note: The Sugar Bowl is a College Football Playoff semifinal this postseason.
Allstate Sugar Bowl Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Texas Vs. Georgia
Alright, eye rollers – have your day. I've gone in-depth about this Texas team in 2023 already, but to summarize: this roster is absolutely loaded. The Longhorns have the resume to make a CFP, handling Alabama on the road in their non-conference, and all five other top Big 12 finishers.
With Texas on its way out after this year, I have to take the opportunity to get burned one more time with bold Longhorn predictions.
My preseason numbers project Georgia to finish first in the country and Texas on the outside looking in. But with a ceiling play here, the Longhorns secure the fourth seed and play the two-time defending champions in the semifinal.
Texas took down Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl in their last meeting.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Kansas State vs. Utah
The Pac-12 doesn't offer a hierarchy in terms of bowl games, with the Rose Bowl also folded into the CFP. Instead, they go off geography and best matchup. Kansas State, my projected Big 12 runner-up, gets the Utes, who are both closest geographically to San Antonio (among high-level bowl-eligible Pac-12 teams) and present K-State with an excellent matchup.
Utah comes off two straight Rose Bowl appearances – their first two in program history. Kansas State is coming off a Big 12 Championship. These are two programs on the rise with a ton of intrigue in this matchup.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Oklahoma vs. North Carolina
The what now? Formerly the Cheez-It/Camping World/Blockbuster Bowl, the hilarious name doesn't exempt it from being a high-level bowl game. The third-place finisher – who I project to be Oklahoma – squares off with a "Tier One" ACC team. In this case, UNC makes a good geographic selection as well as a high-octane matchup for the Sooners.
Oklahoma was featured in the Cheez-It Bowl last season and went against high-octane Florida State. But this season, the priority of the bowl game was moved up in the Big 12 hierarchy.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: TCU Vs. Tennessee
The top three teams in the SEC project for the CFP Semifinal and Citrus Bowl, according to the hierarchy and my preseason numbers. The other teams are divided up according to geography and/or matchup intrigue. Tennessee and TCU have only met twice and not since 1976, both times in Knoxville.
The Vols again project to have an extremely fast-paced and high-scoring offense. TCU is coming off one of their most accomplished seasons in school history, but should still be looking at an 8- or 9-win campaign.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: UCF Vs. Kentucky
Trying to place teams whose conference doesn't have a specific order is tricky. It's ultimately based on subjective terms in the Bowl Selection Committee. But newcomer UCF matches up nicely with Kentucky, who I project to have a rebound season after a disappointing year.
Two teams with vastly contrasting styles square off in Memphis and a familiar venue for UCF. The Knights played Memphis annually as a member of the AAC. Kentucky also sees a familiar foe: coach Guz Malzahn, who was with Auburn for some time.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Texas Tech Vs. Maryland
Thankfully, the Big Ten has a hierarchy of bowl assignments. The seventh-ranked Big Ten team goes off against the sixth-ranked Big 12 team. My preseason numbers project an intriguing matchup between Texas Tech and Maryland.
The two teams have never played each other, and what better time than now? Maryland rosters Taulia Tagovailoa (who may or may not play, depending on NFL Draft stock), while Tech is one of the preseason favorites to take a big step forward. Also, note this down as one of the best uniform matchups in Bowl Season.
Independence Bowl: Baylor Vs. Oregon State
Thanks to BYU having the Independence Bowl tie-in previously and the Cougars now being a member of the Big 12, the conference has a tie-in to Shreveport in 2023 and 2025. There, they'll play the Pac-12, a matchup decided again by geography and/or best matchup.
Oregon State is a fascinating team in 2023, adding former five-star DJ Uiagalelei and returning a bulk of their production that propelled the Beavers to 10 wins last season. They play against the seventh-ranked Big 12 team, who I project to be Baylor this year.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma State Vs. Western Kentucky
Conference USA has the tie-in, while the Big 12 has a secondary tie-in to the Armed Forces Bowl. This bowl game is based on the best possible matchup, so CUSA sends their top team to battle the Big 12 – I project it to be Western Kentucky.
My preseason numbers suggest 7.2 wins for Oklahoma State, bowl eligible, although I believe those may be a tad overstated. The program environment appears to be trending in the wrong direction, and, if things go sideways, Mike Gundy & Co. may be missing their first bowl game since 2005.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Cincinnati Vs. Florida Atlantic
It didn't take long for the Bearcats to revisit their AAC membership, although it's against a newcomer to the league – Florida Atlantic. Cincinnati is on the borderline of bowl eligibility and may not make the six required wins (my preseason numbers suggest 6.1 with a few one-score finishes).
FAU, on the other hand, needs some help to be bowl eligible, as my preseason projects hand them 5.7 wins. However, I'm bullish on FAU this year and believe they can exceed this preseason total.
Teams I project not to be bowl eligible from the Big 12: Iowa State (5.9 wins, but trending down with NCAA gambling probe), Houston (5.4 wins), BYU (5.1 wins), Kansas (4.7 wins), and West Virginia (4.1 wins).
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