Predicting The Big 12 For The 2023 College Football Season
The Big 12 Conference, as it currently exists, is going out of fashion. Its two biggest brands, Oklahoma and Texas, depart for the glamorous SEC, and the league welcomes in Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and welcomes back Colorado. This season, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF join its ranks. In a one-year edition, the Big 12 is up for grabs.
As is tradition, the Sooners and Longhorns are preseason favorites. Reigning conference champion Kansas State and 2022 wunderkind TCU follow up with the rest of the conference in tow. And as we've come to know about this league, its winner usually rises from the ashes and peaks at the right time.
So, let's try and pinpoint how the Big 12 shakes out in 2023. Who might find their way to Arlington in December?
Projected Big 12 Standings
Projecting the Big 12 Conference might feel like throwing darts at a wall. And in some respects, it is. In 2021, both Baylor and Oklahoma State made massive jumps foreseen by few in the preseason; in 2022, that was Kansas State and TCU. We'll get to dart throws later on.
These projected wins come from an average rating from systems across the country, including the FPI, SP+, KFord Ratings, and other established methods.
- Texas Longhorns, 9.6 average wins
- Oklahoma Sooners, 9.4
- TCU Horned Frogs, 8.3
- Kansas State Wildcats, 7.9
- UCF Knights 7.7
- Texas Tech Red Raiders, 7.3
- Baylor Bears, 7.2
- Oklahoma State Cowboys, 7.2
- Cincinnati Bearcats, 6.1
- Iowa State Cyclones*, 5.9
- Houston Cougars, 5.4
- BYU Cougars, 5.1
- Kansas Jayhawks, 4.7
- West Virginia Mountaineers, 4.1
*Many on Iowa State's roster, including starting QB Hunter Dekkers, are under investigation in an NCAA gambling probe. Their team strength will take a huge dip if these student-athletes are found guilty and do not play.
Stop Me If You've Heard This Before...
...but Texas and Oklahoma project to finish with the most regular season wins. You can find out exactly how these teams shake out for this coming season with my preseason Big 12 team previews.
Ultimately, it's a combination of roster strength and schedule strength. Both Texas and Oklahoma play easier schedules than TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, or Texas Tech. The most difficult job when projecting teams like the Longhorns is that their roster strength and talent are undeniable, but their season wins almost never match expectations.
Brent Venables' Sooners have a long way to improve from last season to consider a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game – something improving on an 0-5 record in one-score games should help. They hit the portal hard to build talent defensively, and this is Year 2 under Venables' system.
And if it's not this year for Texas, it's never.
Who Peaks At The Right Time?
Texas Tech is a popular pick to make the jump. In Year 1 under Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders went 8-5 (their best finish since 2013) and trounced Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. They return a good chunk of their final 2022 roster and made some good additions in the portal. However, Tech plays a top-20 difficult schedule nationally, headlined by non-conference games at Wyoming and against Oregon in Lubbock; they also draw all of Texas, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State.
UCF, on the other hand, projects for the fifth-most wins in the Big 12 despite being a new member. The Knights play an easier slate than any of the top-half projected finishers, save for Oklahoma (38th nationally).
The beauty, of course, is the surprise and unknown of who makes the jump. If it's not one of the two aforementioned teams – Texas Tech or UCF – then it will be a true surprise team making the jump.
Big 12 Championship Predictions
Despite just one appearance in Arlington since the Big 12 Championship Game was re-established in 2017, the numbers call for Texas to secure one spot at AT&T Stadium. Their most likely opponent there appears to be Oklahoma.
However, that's not how things shake out, and the likelihood of a Texas-Oklahoma rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game is low. Instead, I'm looking at the Kansas State Wildcats to reclaim their spot. K-State returns too much and has one of the best offensive lines nationally. You can find a more in-depth appraisal here.
This year, I do buy into the roster talent for Texas. Foolhardy? Probably – and feel free to revisit my "favorite paired with a defending champion" model from last year. But it's right back on the horse.
Big 12 Championship Prediction: Texas OVER Kansas State
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