Should Tennessee Win The Clemson Regional?
Last season, Ole Miss taught us that talent can take you far in the postseason, no matter the regular season outcome. The Rebels were the last team into the field of 64 last season, yet they won the College World Series. There's no doubt that Tennessee has the talent, but if they want to go on a run, it all starts in the regional.
The Vols are not Ole Miss from last season to clear things up. Tennessee easily made it into the NCAA Tournament and would've likely hosted a regional with a better run in the SEC Tournament. However, the Vols won just one series on the road this season, and it came in the last series of the year against South Carolina. The Vols could potentially have to beat Clemson multiple times in Clemson's ballpark to get out of the regional. The Vols do two things extremely well. They pitch, and they have power. The Vols finished top 10 in both ERA and home runs, and both bode extremely well in a regional setting. We have no idea how many games Tennessee will play this weekend. If they were to win a regional, they could play 3, but they also could play as many as 5. Having a ton of pitchers you trust is super important, but having a plethora of guys that could bring you instant offense is also important.
The oddsmakers consider Tennessee and Clemson almost even as teams. Clemson is a slight favorite to win the regional at +135, with the Vols not far behind them at +145. Clemson finished the season at 6 in the RPI, while the Vols were down at 20. While the odds indicate Tennessee has nearly the same shot as Clemson, the Vols would have to match their season nearly win total on the road to advance to a super-regional. Overall I think it is difficult to pick against a talented team in non-conference when you know they're well-managed. The Vols are obviously one of the most talented teams in the country, and while they were bad away from home, teams that don't play in the SEC likely won't have the Vols scouted, as well as teams that are in the conference. As a result, the Vols' talent should take over, and I think Tennessee should be expected to win a regional this weekend.
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