2022-23 ACC Basketball Preview: Miami Hurricanes
Head Coach: Jim Larrañaga (12th season)
2021 Year in Review
Record: 26-11 (14-6)
ACC Finish: 4th
KenPom Ranking: 41 (19 Offense, 107 defense)
ACC Tournament: 71-69 W vs. Boston College, 80-76 L vs. Duke
NCAA Tournament: 68-66 W vs USC, 79-61 W vs Auburn, 70-56 W vs Iowa State, 76-50 L vs Kansas
Miami entered 2021-22 coming off of three straight losing seasons. Before that streak, Larrañaga had taken the Hurricanes to the NCAA Tournament in three straight seasons. Miami was expected to remain at the bottom of the conference, but the formation of a real team identity made last season one to remember.
Miami didn’t start the season on anyone’s radar and sat at 4-3 entering December. Then came a nine-game winning streak, highlighted by a 76-74 upset win over Duke, in Cameron as 15.5 point underdogs. From Dec. 1 - Jan. 29, their only two losses came against Florida State, falling by a point in both contests.
The Hurricanes needed an overtime buzzer beater to beat a fearless Boston College team in the ACC Tournament. They almost beat Duke a second time, but fell by four in the tournament semifinals.
The Canes appeared to have brutal draw in the NCAAs as a 10 seed. First up was a matchup with USC, a team with great size that could really rebound. But Miami rose to the occasion and escaped with a 68-66 win. Auburn was another team with great size and athleticism, but Miami put on a clinic, and dominated to the tune of a 79-61 victory. The Hurricanes cruised by Iowa State 70-56 before getting smoked by Kansas 76-50 in the Elite Eight after leading by six at halftime.
Larrañaga and co. proved in March what teams in the ACC knew all season long — Miami was tough. Their trio of guards played with such confidence and connectivity offensively, and applied tons of ball pressure to force turnovers. Waardenburg and Miller were perfect complementary pieces that made the recipe work. As a very undersized team, Miami was the worst rebounding team in the conference. However, they were able to counter that by having the eighth best turnover margin in the nation (+4.4).
READ: Boston College Basketball Preview
Projected Starting Lineup:
So. G Nijel Pack (6-0, 184 lbs)
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (6-4, 184)
So. G Wooga Poplar (6-5,192)
Gr. G Jordan Miller (6-7, 195)
So. F Norchad Omier (6-7, 248)
Off the bench:
Sr. F Anthony Walker (6-9, 215)
Jr. G Harlond Beverly (6-6, 200)
So. G Bensley Joseph (6-2, 207)
Fr. F AJ Casey (6-9, 213)
Fr. G Christian Watson (6-7, 209)
Fr. C Favour Aire (6-11, 215)
Fr. F Danilo Jovanovich (6-8, 219)
R Fr. G Jakai Robinson (6-5, 208)
Who’s Out: Sam Waardenburg, Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty
Who’s In: Norchad Ormier (Arkansas State), Nijel Pack (Kansas State), Favour Aire, Christian Watson, AJ Casey. Danilo Jovanovich
READ: Louisville Basketball Preview
I expect Miami’s winning formula and play style to remain similar to last season, which means there are some key pieces that need to be replaced. Charlie Moore (12.4 PPG, 4.5 AST, 2.0 STL), Kam McGusty (17.8 PPG, 4.9 REB, 2.4 AST), and Sam Waardenburg (8.5 PPG, 4.3 REB, 1.3 BLK) were all fantastic last season. All three had been playing college ball since 2016, and that experience was invaluable.
Two starters remain from last season's team, Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller. Wong (15.4 PPG, 4.3 REB, 2.0 AST) is an absolute bucket getter, who excels at getting to the rim and creating looks for himself. The next steps for him this year include taking on more of a leadership role, improving his long range shooting (.30 3PT%) and defending at a higher level.
Miller (10.0 PPG, 5.8 REB, 1.8 STL) was a perfect complementary starter last season. The undersized four man transferred in from Larrañaga's former home, George Mason. He was efficient offensively (.56 FG%), unselfish and a highly intelligent player on both ends. He’s also a sneaky good rebounder, and he consistently performed well when guarding much bigger players.
The replacements of last year’s departed starters aren’t clones, but the new guys are fully capable of filling similar roles, while also bringing new things to the table. Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack will be taking over the point guard duties. He made headlines this offseason when a Miami booster signed him to a $400,000 NIL deal. Pack (17.4 PPG, 2.2 AST, 1.3 STL, .43 3PT%) is a speedster who can shoot the cover off the ball. At 6-0, he’s small in stature like Moore. His ability to create off the bounce and score from the perimeter makes him a perfect fit for Larrañaga's offense.
Replacing Waardenburg at the five is Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier, the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Omier (17.9 PPG, 12.2 REB, 1.6 STL, 1.9 BLK) is an athletic and powerful big from Nicaragaua who runs the floor really well and is a dunking machine. Playing in the ACC is a level up in competition for sure, and Omier’s two worst games of the season were against the two best teams his Red Wolves played (4 pts, 5 reb vs Illinois, 5 pts, 7 reb vs Texas Tech). I’m not going to overreact to the small sample size — Omier has the physical tools and motor to excel on both ends of the floor at the ACC level. According to KenPom, he had the 4th best defensive rebounding rate in the entire nation.
READ: Clemson Basketball Preview
Rounding out the starting five is Wooga Poplar, my sleeper pick for Most Improved Player in the ACC. The 6-5 wing is extremely athletic, but didn’t start playing basketball until high school, and only made five three-pointers last season. There’s a lot of hype surrounding him within the program, and the word is that he’s gotten stronger and become a much better shooter. Don’t be surprised if there’s a full on breakout season in the works.
6-9 Anthony Walker returns as frontcourt depth. Walker (4.9 PPG, 2.5 REB) is another high- flying but undersized big. If he can take better care of the ball and and improve as a passer it’ll be a big help for the Hurricanes. Also back on the bench are sophomore guards Bensley Joseph and Harlond Beverly. Joseph (2.3 PPG) mainly contributes on the defensive end, and he’ll continue to relieve the backcourt starters. Beverly started 15 games for Larrañaga as a sophomore, but didn’t see much action last year.
Larrañaga usually keeps a tight rotation. Walker, Joseph, and Beverly are known commodities, but there's young talent on the roster that could also carve out bench roles.
An interesting piece is 6-4 guard Jakai Robinson, a former top-100 recruit who redshirted last season. He could be more of a threat offensively than Joseph, but his lack of playing experience could keep him in a reserve role.
Coach L brought four freshmen aboard, forming the No. 23 class in the nation according to 247sports. The highest rated newcomer is A.J. Casey, an athletic 6-8 forward. 6-11 Favour Aire could crack the rotation as additional frontcourt depth behind Walker and Omier. The Nigerian is the tallest player on the roster by a couple of inches. Christian Watson is a 6-7 forward who can shoot it well from the outside. Danilo Janovich is another forward with size at 6-8. He’s the lowest-rated of the group and is the least likely to see the floor this year.
READ: Florida State Basketball Preview
ACC Prediction: 5th place
If anything, this prediction is too low. I’m a big fan of Larrañaga, and Miami was one of my favorite teams to watch all last season. It’ll be a challenge to replicate last year’s success with different pieces, but I definitely think this team can earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament.
The reason I don’t have Miami higher is I have a few questions about the new pieces. Will Omier fix the team's rebounding struggles? Waardenburg was so good at hitting backdoor cutters on bounce passes, setting screens and generally making the offense go. Can Omier do these things at that level too? Moore, McGusty and Wong had great chemistry and share the ball so well. Will Pack and Wong mesh the same way?
Despite the uncertainty, I’m betting on a legendary coach to make it work. It could take some time, but once ACC play begins I expect this to be one of the best teams in the conference. I’m in on Wong being a first team All-ACC guy, and Pack and Omier have the chops to compete for postseason honors as well. If Poplar can break out and become a tertiary scorer on the perimeter, that would add even another dimension. Omier’s athleticism does give this team a higher ceiling than it had with Waardenburg. Walker and Joseph know their roles and I'm expecting improved play from both of them. Maybe one of the freshman surprises as well.
If Larrañaga can re-establish the chemistry last year's group had, he's got the players to make this team a threat once again in March.
When does Miami play Wake Forest?
Feb 18: Wake Forest at Miami
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Christian is the Publisher and Lead Editor for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Christian spent 4 years covering the Men's Basketball team for the student paper, the Old Gold & Black