SKOL Searching: The Vikings' defense changed... can it sustain?
The Vikings needed one more stop.
Attempting to mount the largest comeback in the history of the NFL, Minnesota couldn’t score first in overtime and instead punted the ball back to the Colts. The defense had held Indianapolis to just three points in the second half, giving the offense time to mount a 22-point fourth-quarter charge.
Now the defense had to make one more stop – a task that had grown increasingly difficult in recent weeks as the unit plummeted to last in the NFL in yards allowed, questions of Ed Donatell’s scheme arose and Kevin O’Connell publicly pondered the need for more aggression and an “honest” look at the defense’s approach.
How Minnesota approached that final drive – with an insertion of blitzes and man coverage – gives a quick snapshot of how the team shifted its larger defensive philosophy for the entire game.
Was it a one-week strategy or a harbinger of things to come? And was the defensive success a product of the Colts’ shortcomings or something more?
What changed?
The Vikings blitzed on 40.5% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks Saturday, a season-high, per PFF. They blitzed on 57.1% of snaps in the second half. That included four blitzes on the overtime drive, the last of which came on 3rd-and-9 as Danielle Hunter rushed untouched to the quarterback and forced an incompletion and a punt.
Minnesota also utilized man coverage at a much higher rate than at any other point this season. Duke Shelley and Patrick Peterson, the two starting outside corners, played man on about 38% of their pass coverage snaps, per PFF. On every blitz in the final drive, they played man coverage behind it.
In total, the Vikings played the fourth-highest rate of man coverage by any team in Week 15, a stark contrast from previous weeks. Through 13 games, Minnesota’s two outside corners were playing man coverage on roughly 12% of snaps per game.
Those strategic shifts track with what O’Connell and Donatell said publicly leading into the game.
"We'd like to take some of the air out of the coverage," Donatell said. "You want to be tighter. Whether you're in man or zone, we've got to be tighter on our matches and tighter on people. That makes it harder for people to run their passing game."
Ryan completed 6-of-13 passes for 39 yards against man coverage but also completed his only passing touchdown of the game against the look.
The change-ups also came to Minnesota’s fronts, which O’Connell hinted at last week.
“We’ve got to take a look at what we can do to help our guys be in position to make more plays,” O’Connell said after the Lions game. “Be a little more aggressive, possibly. I think we’ve got to generate some more rush, however we do it, and then just try to limit explosives.”
That certainly happened. Minnesota let loose some of their more under-utilized players in the pass rush. For the season, Eric Kendricks has logged 17 pass-rush snaps this season. Eight of those came on Saturday, per PFF. Harrison Smith has registered nine pass rush snaps this year. Four came against the Colts. Seven of Jordan Hicks’ 23 pass rush snaps came against the Colts.
The Vikings clearly emphasized finding pressure in other spots. On the Hunter pressure that ended the Indianapolis drive, Smith, Hicks and Kendricks overloaded the left side of the line. Smith and Kendricks came from the outside, taking the left tackle and running back with them. Meanwhile Kendricks came from the inside which the left guard took, leaving Hunter to run through a gap in the middle unimpeded to the quarterback.
The blitz worked on that specific occasion, but whether or not Minnesota’s increased aggressiveness worked on Saturday feels secondary to the fact that change happened at all. Although a small sample size, Donatell appeared to respond to O’Connell’s edict of more aggressiveness, and while the numbers against the Colts stand out, there’s some indication it has been slowly building towards this.
The Vikings’ blitz rates were increasing steadily week-over-week since the win over Buffalo in Week 10. Last week against the Lions, Minnesota blitzed on 31.7 of Jared Goff’s dropbacks, which at that point was a season-high.
The last two weeks also show that even if the Vikings increase their aggressiveness, it doesn’t automatically lead to better performance. Against the Lions, Minnesota blitzed 13 times but generated only three pressures on those plays, a 23% pressure rate.
The Vikings blitzed Ryan 15 times on Saturday and generated eight pressures, a 53% pressure rate. On the 22 non-blitzed dropbacks, they generated seven pressures, a 31% pressure rate. Ryan’s touchdown also came on a Vikings blitz.
Blame the Colts? Or credit the Vikings?
The scoreboard looks gaudy, but Minnesota’s defense allowed only one offensive touchdown and forced the Colts to kick five field goals. Twice the Colts started a drive on the Vikings’ 31-yard-line but could only come away with three points on each occasion. If any of those field goals are touchdowns, Minnesota does not win the game.
Considering how the Vikings’ defense has looked over the last month, that’s an improvement no matter the opponent. But there’s plenty of evidence to show that the opponent was pretty dang bad.
Here’s a look at the Colts' offense and where it ranks in various statistics this season:
28th in scoring
27th in third down conversion percentage
24th in yards per game
31st in EPA/play
27th in success rate
32nd in DVOA
29th in PFF grade
27th in PFF pass-blocking grade
Then consider how Indianapolis called their offense against Minnesota. The Colts ran the ball 41 times and passed it 37 times. On first down, they ran the ball 23 times and passed it 11 times. Hardly attacking the weak points of the defense.
On the surface, considering the game script, that still seems relatively normal. The Colts were trying to play to the clock and slowly run out the game. For pretty much every team in the history of the NFL, that’s a sound strategy with a 30-point lead, but they rarely deviated from that plan even as the game became closer in the second half.
The first drive of the second half stalled after the Colts unsuccessfully ran the ball on first and second down and then threw a wide receiver screen on 3rd-and-8. Almost the exact same situation occurred on the next drive. The Colts again stalled out after unsuccessful runs on first and second down and another failed wide receiver screen on 3rd-and-7.
Failed screens were a theme. The Colts ran five screen plays that went for a combined 18 yards, three of which came on third downs in the second half that were stopped. None went for a first down.
In total, Ryan attempted only three passes over 20 yards and did not complete a single one of them. In the previous five games, the Vikings’ opponents had 23 pass plays of at least 20 yards.
One of those attempts at a deep shot came on first down with the Colts back up at their own two-yard-line. It did not come close to a completion and a short run on second down and a dump-off pass on 3rd-and-8 resulted in another Colts punt.
The Colts’ insistence on running the ball came at bad times too. They ran the ball six times on 2nd-and-long (7+ yards) and twice on 3rd-and-long.
One two drives, they completely stalled out after running on all three downs. The most crucial came with less than three minutes to play in the game. The Colts converted on a first down to begin the drive, but Indianapolis running back Zach Moss inexplicably ran out of bounds to stop the clock. Then they handed it off to Moss for gains of one, two and six yards before Ryan was stuffed on a quarterback sneak to turn the ball over. It ran a total of 24 seconds off the clock.
The other came in the first half. Up 30-0 at the time, the Colts were driving to close the second half and reached the red zone with less than two minutes to go. After runs of two and third yards set up 3rd-and-5 at the Minnesota 11-yard line, Indianapolis opted to hand the ball off again for a two-yard gain and settle for a field goal.
Although seemingly innocent at the time given the large lead, it was one of several conservative first-half fourth-down decisions that would later cost the Colts. Earlier in the half, facing a 4th-and-4 at the Vikings’ 10-yard line the Colts kicked a field goal to extend their lead from 17 to 20. Another questionable decision, particularly because it remained a three-score game and one the Vikings could overtake without needing a two-point conversion.
None of these blunders happened in a vacuum. The Vikings’ defense had to play well to force the Colts into fourth-down decisions and questionable 2nd- and 3rd-and-long play call discussions, but any ounce of aggressive play by the Colts likely would have put the game out of reach. In total, they gained 128 yards in the second half and overtime – an average of 3.2 yards per play. That doesn’t happen without ineptitude from the Colts and strong play from Minnesota.
Will it continue moving forward?
It will be interesting to see how the defense looks when it doesn’t spend an entire game trailing. Will they be as likely to take risks in a close game or when they have the lead? Minnesota didn’t have a lot to lose in the second half calling all the blitzes they did. Still, once the game got close in the second half, they continued to stay aggressive with blitz calls and man coverage.
Similarly, will the blitz get home as often when the Vikings play someone other than Matt Ryan? Ryan has been sacked fifth-most in the NFL this season and is one of the worst quarterbacks in avoiding sacks once he’s pressured. He has the worst PFF grade in the NFL when pressured this season and he’s the second-worst quarterback when blitzed behind only Zach Wilson.
That’s reason to believe Minnesota’s defensive success will regress in the coming weeks. Their tendencies when it comes to blitzing and man coverage may dip as well, but probably not considerably. For the first time all season, Donatell made major adjustments. O’Connell demanded it after the Lions and Donatell followed through. It wouldn’t make sense for them to deviate from the plan now.
They’ll face another bad quarterback when blitzed in Daniel Jones next week, another favorable matchup. If Minnesota can build some confidence in this newly adjusted scheme, beating up bad offenses before the playoffs begin, they may just be confident enough that they can hang with the top offenses of the NFC. Then we’ll find out if they actually can.
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