Florida vs. Utah football game preview, prediction, Week 1 college football picks: Who wins, and why?

What we can expect when Florida and Utah kick off the 2023 college football season with our latest game predictions for the SEC vs. Pac-12 game

James Parks | Aug 31, 2023

Florida vs. Utah football game preview, prediction, Week 1 college football picks: Who wins, and why? /

Week 1 of the college football season opens up on Thursday night as defending Pac-12 champion Utah squares off at home against SEC hopeful Florida as both teams have questions at the quarterback position in an important early season game.

What can we expect when Florida and Utah meet up in the Week 1 opener? Here's what you need to know heading into the game, along with our prediction.

Florida vs. Utah prediction, preview

Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall on a play during a college football game in the SEC. — Florida vs. Utah game predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Thurs., Aug. 31
Time: 8 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

Florida vs. Utah odds

Line: Utah -4.5
Total: 45.5 points
Moneyline: UF +150 | Utah -200
FPI pick: Utah 73.6% | UF 26.4%

Florida vs. Utah: What to watch

1. Quarterbacks: It's looking like Cameron Rising won't be able to go after all as he recovers from an ACL injury in the Rose Bowl. That leaves the Utes with likely Bryson Barnes at QB1, but Nate Johnson should play some, too. Johnson is a more mobile piece who can break open plays with his legs. Florida will debut Graham Mertz, the veteran transfer high on experience but low on production up to now. Mertz has 38 TDs to 26 INTs in his career and is a 59% passer. Utah has an edge behind the superior line and a ground game that just doesn't make mistakes. And if Florida's game plan comes down to relying on Mertz to get aggressive moving the ball downfield, things may not end well.

2. Utah can stop you: This edition of the Utes defense might be the most physical and talented of all under Kyle Whittingham, especially in the front seven. It can generate pressure on the edges early and often, shrink the pocket on early downs, and has the speed behind the line to close down running lanes and limit gains on the ground. Florida wants to run the ball right away, but if Utah can get the better of the Gators' new-look protection early and clog the A- and B-gaps, it might be a long night.

3. Battle at the line: Florida's strength coming in will be its front seven defensive alignment, a unit that will have to get to work right away grinding down the resolve of Utah's terrific offensive line on the road, preventing the Utes backs from getting those moderate gains early and moving the chains, and apply pressure to the quarterback off the edges. The Gators have the athletes to get in the backfield.

Fast Facts

+ Florida has never won back-to-back season openers against ranked teams

+ Utah was 5th in FBS with 51.1% success on third down while Florida was 128th in third down defense

+ Florida averaged 6.6 yards per play a year ago, 10th best in school history

+ Utah has lost 3 of its last 16 season openers

+ Gators ran for 200.2 yards per game in 2022, 5th in the SEC

+ Utes are 12-1 in home season openers under Whittingham

+ Florida is 8-13 all-time in true road season openers

+ Utah was 2nd in FBS in first down offense last season

+ Gators back Montrell Johnson is 1 of 9 FBS players who had 10-plus rushing TDs and 800 yards rushing in each of the last 2 years

+ Utah was 13th in FBS with 2.93 sacks per game; Florida was 97th with 1.77

+ Florida allowed 17 sacks in '22, 27th fewest in Power 5

Florida vs. Utah prediction

SEC speed tends to win these matchups, but Billy Napier hasn't really shown he can apply it properly yet. Florida should have the advantage when throwing bodies at the quarterback from behind the line and should run the ball with authority, even behind a line that's bringing on some new pieces.

But the Utes present a more formidable challenge protecting the quarterback, whoever it is, play a stronger brand of defense at home, and have the power to reduce Florida's attack to one dimension, its weakest link. Whoever can throw the ball better, deeper, and longer, should win.

College Football HQ pick: Utah wins 27-24, doesn't cover the spread, hits the over

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