Florida vs. Kentucky score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Florida vs. Kentucky in this Week 5 college football game

This weekend brings us an SEC East clash in the Commonwealth as undefeated but unranked Kentucky welcomes one-loss, No. 22 ranked Florida in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Florida vs. Kentucky predictions

Florida vs. Kentucky picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Gators vs. Wildcats score prediction

The simulations are siding with the home team this weekend, as Kentucky is projected to defeat Florida by an estimated score of 26 to 21, winning by a projected margin of 5.3 points, and with an overall win probability of 62 percent.

Point spread

Kentucky comes into Saturday's game as the 1 point favorites against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 44 points.

If you're betting on this game using this projection, you should take Florida +1 and take the over.

FPI prediction

College Football Power Index, another computer prediction model that simulates outcomes to pick winners, projects Kentucky is the favorite to defeat Florida, winning out in 52.1 percent of its simulations, or 10,420 of the 20,000 projections.

Florida wins the remaining 47.9 percent of simulations, or 9,580 of the 20,000 predictions.

Where the bets are

Bets on Florida vs. Kentucky go straight down the middle, with 50 percent of wagers taking the Wildcats -1 and the other half on the Gators to upset.

Betting trends

+ Florida is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games

+ UK is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games

+ Total went under in 4 of Florida's last 5

+ Total went under in 4 of UK's last 5 vs. Florida

+ Gators are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 vs. UK

+ Kentucky is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 September games

+ UF is 1-8 SU in the last 9 road games

+ Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 SEC games

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Florida at Kentucky schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30 
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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