Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Georgia vs. Auburn in this Week 5 college football game

The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry returns to the gridiron this weekend as unranked, one-loss Auburn welcomes defending national champion, undefeated, and No. 1 ranked Georgia to The Plains in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Georgia vs. Auburn predictions

Georgia vs. Auburn picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations are predictably siding with Georgia, projecting it will defeat Auburn by a score of 32 to 18, an estimated scoring margin of 14.6 points, and with an overall win probability of 80 percent in the matchup.

Point spread

Georgia comes into the game as 14.5 point favorites against Auburn, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

If you're betting on the game using this projection, you should take Auburn +14.5, Georgia to win on the moneyline at -800, and bet the over.

Computer predictions

Looking around the other analytic models, Georgia still comes out the easy winner, including with a projected 81.9 percent chance of victory, according to the College Football Power Index, another computer model that picks winners.

Georgia wins the game in 16,380 of the 20,000 simulations the power index uses to pick winners. Auburn wins the remaining 3,620 sims, or 18.1 percent of the total.

Where the bets are

Bettors take a more favorable view to Georgia than the SP+ model does, as 75 percent of wagers currently project the Bulldogs to win and cover the 14.5 point spread.

The remaining 25 percent of bets pick Auburn at +14.5 while the total bets are split evenly between those taking the over vs. the under at 46.5.

Betting trends

+ Georgia is 2-6-1 ATS in the last 6 games

+ Total went under in 5 of Auburn's last 6 vs. UGA

+ Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 vs. Auburn

+ Tigers are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 at home vs. Georgia

+ Total went under in 7 of UGA's last 8 September games

+ Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 September games

+ Georgia is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 vs. SEC West teams

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Georgia at Auburn schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 3:30 ET, 2:30 CT
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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