LSU vs. Ole Miss score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for LSU vs. Ole Miss in this Week 5 college football game

This weekend brings us a battle between a pair of ranked SEC West rivals both at 3-1 on the season as No. 20 Ole Miss welcomes No. 13 LSU in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

LSU sits in pole position in the SEC West, already at 2-0 in the conference after taking down Mississippi State and Arkansas in succession, while the Rebels come in at 0-1 in SEC play after taking another L at Alabama last Saturday.

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What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

LSU vs. Ole Miss predictions

LSU vs. Ole Miss picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations are taking the minority view this week, picking Ole Miss to upset LSU at home by a projected score of 31 to 29, winning out by a slim 2.2 point margin, as the Rebels have an estimated 55 percent chance to win the game outright.

Point spread

LSU comes into the game as 2.5 point favorites against Ole Miss, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 67 points for the matchup.

If you're betting on the game using this projection, you should take Ole Miss at +2.5, pick the Rebels on the moneyline at +115, and take the under.

Computer predictions

Other analytic models are also siding with the Rebels, and that includes the College Football Power Index, another computer prediction tool that simulates games 20,000 times using a wide variety of data points to pick winners.

That model suggests Ole Miss will win the game in 56.5 percent of its projections, or a total of 11,300 of the 20,000 simulations. LSU comes out the winner in the other 8,700 simulations, or 43.5 percent of the total.

Where the bets are

A majority of bettors, 67 percent in total, are siding with LSU to win the game and cover the 2.5 point spread. The other 33 percent of wagers are picking Ole Miss to either win in the upset or keep the game under 2.5 points, as the SP+ model does.

A consensus of wagers, just about 100 percent, predict that LSU and Ole Miss will combine for over 67 points in the game.

Betting trends

+ Total went over in LSU's last 8 games

+ Total went over in 5 of Rebs' last 7 vs. LSU

+ LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 vs. Rebels

+ Rebels are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 against SEC West teams

+ Tigers are 6-1 SU in the last 7 vs. Ole Miss

+ Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 September games

+ LSU is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 September games

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LSU at Ole Miss schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 5 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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