Michigan vs. Rutgers game preview, prediction

What to expect as Michigan and Rutgers meet in the Big Ten opener as the Week 4 college football schedule kicks off along with our game prediction

Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline this weekend after serving a school-imposed suspension to lead the Wolverines in their Big Ten conference debut as No. 2 Michigan welcomes undefeated Rutgers in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

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What can you expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Michigan and Rutgers square off along with our latest Week 4 game predictions.

Michigan vs. Rutgers game preview, prediction

Michigan vs. Rutgers picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 23 
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Michigan vs. Rutgers game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Michigan -23.5
Total: 43.5 points
Moneyline: RU +950 | UM -5000
FPI pick: Michigan 84.9% to win

What to watch for

1. Rutgers can stop you. This will be the toughest defense Michigan lines up against so far this season. Rutgers has 8 players with a sack and 5 others who have an interception behind an experienced unit that plays its best in the middle of the field, surrendering no TDs in the first half and only 1 before the fourth quarter. Take the opponents into account – Northwestern, Temple, Virginia Tech – but is 11th allowing 3.99 yards per play, 14th surrendering 2.46 yards per rush, allowing opponents to convert third downs 32.6% of the time, and is holding opposition to 37.5% success when scoring points in the red zone.

2. Turnover battle. Part of Rutgers' defensive success has come through takeaways, as the team is 15th nationally with a plus-4 turnover margin and top 25 with five INTs. Rutgers has also forced four fumbles, though recovered just one. Michigan is coming off a game in which it handed the ball over four times against Bowling Green, including J.J. McCarthy's career-worst 3 interceptions, the most turnovers UM had in a game in four years. Ball security, as ever, is crucial, as the Scarlet Knights have a penchant for getting their hands on it.

3. Maize and Blue Wall. McCarthy, Corum, & Co. get a lot of the attention, but the Wolverines are quietly playing some elite defense of their own. They lead college football in scoring defense by allowing just 5.3 points per game and place 2nd nationally surrendering 222 total yards each time out. Teams have scored just one touchdown against Michigan, whose tacklers have accounted for 8 sacks and 17 negative plays. 

Rutgers can move the ball well enough on the ground – Kyle Monangai leads the way with 357 yards and 5 of the team's 9 rushing scores – and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is a dual threat, but the air game accounts for just 6.2 yards per play and hitting a little over half its pass attempts. 

Michigan vs. Rutgers prediction

There's a lot to like about how Rutgers has played defense so far, and though its three opponents were Power Five teams, they're still not Michigan's caliber. McCarthy has more weapons to target working in space, the ground game is among the nation's best, and they're all working behind another stout line. 

Rutgers' tacklers will cause some problems near the line, but Michigan has enough variety to get behind the coverages – Rutgers is 55th in pass defense, a relative weakness – and deliver the important gainers on money downs. From there, the Wolverines have the bodies to stymie Rutgers' attack on the ground and force Wimsatt to put the ball in the air. Advantage, Michigan.

College Football HQ predicts...

• Michigan wins 34-13
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

More: Michigan vs. Rutgers score prediction by college football computer models

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