Texas A&M vs. Arkansas score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas in this Week 5 college football game

This weekend brings us the annual Southwest Classic from Jerry World in a battle of unranked SEC West rivals, with Arkansas and Texas A&M set to square off in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

A&M received tough injury news leading into the game as starting quarterback Conner Weigman will likely miss the remainder of the 2023 season after sustaining a foot injury in last week's win against Auburn. 

That means it'll be Max Johnson the rest of the way for the Aggies, first up against a Razorback defense allowing over 213 passing yards per game.

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What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas predictions

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations favor Texas A&M to win the game, defeating Arkansas by a projected score of 33 to 22, a forecasted scoring margin of 10.9 points, and with an overall win probability of 74 percent in the game.

Point spread

Texas A&M comes into the game as 6 point favorites against Arkansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Texas A&M to win and cover the 6 point spread and bet on the over.

Computer predictions

College Football Power Index, another computer model that picks winners by simulating games, favors Texas A&M by a wide margin, projecting the Aggies will win the game in 72.9 percent of its latest simulations, or 14,580 of the 20,000 projections.

Arkansas wins the game in the remaining 5,420 of 20,000 simulations, or in 27.1 percent of the other forecasts.

Where the bets are

69 percent of bettors are siding with Arkansas as the 6.5 point underdog while the other 31 percent of wagers predict Texas A&M will win the cover the spread.

Almost 7 in 10, or 67 percent total, of bets project the total to hit the under.

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Texas A&M vs. Arkansas schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: SEC Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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