College football rankings: Overrated, underrated teams in ESPN top 25

Who belongs, and who doesn't belong, in the ESPN preseason college football rankings

One of the big moments of the college football preseason schedule is here as ESPN unveiled its Football Power Index preseason top 25 rankings with just about under a month to go before things officially kick off.

FPI always courts a little controversy among fans, and complaining about its analytic process and rankings is always good sport whenever the latest poll is released, and that's certainly the case when looking at the 2023 rankings, too.

How does the index work? It's a little different than the traditional power rankings or the AP poll in that it ranks teams based on averaging how many points each team would beat an average opponent by on a neutral field.

It takes past performance on offense and defense, returning production, transfer portal additions and losses, and recruiting info on existing and incoming players, then uses all that data and simulates each team's season 20,000 times.

What did it get right and wrong? Let's take a look.

College football rankings: Overrated, underrated teams in the ESPN top 25 

What the ESPN preseason college football rankings got right, and wrong / USA Today Images

Overrated: No. 5 Texas. There's a lot to like about the Longhorns, who come into this season fresh off a dynamite recruiting effort, boast continuity on the offensive line, return skilled receiving production, and have Quinn Ewers in at quarterback again. But Ewers had his ups and downs a year ago, and the team doesn't have Bijan Robinson around to help out on offense this time. That could cut into what Texas wants to do, making this preseason ranking a little too optimistic. 

Underrated: No. 3 Georgia. There's no better-run program top to bottom in college football right now than the sport's back-to-back national champions, even with the talent it lost on both sides of the ball. Watching Georgia's spring game brought that fact home again, and it's tough to argue that any other team will be as dominant against the opponents on its schedule than the Bulldogs should be against theirs.

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Overrated: No. 8 Clemson. The addition of Garrett Riley at offensive coordinator was a major coup by Dabo Swinney and arguably the best hire in college football this offseason. He has a lot to work with, including 5-star quarterback Cade Klubnik and tailback Will Shipley, but Clemson's offense lacks for that game-breaker at wide receiver still and has big holes to fill on the defensive front seven.

Underrated: No. 14 Florida State. FPI projects the Seminoles will win 8.7 games this season, which would be a huge let-down after their 10-win outing a year ago, and especially considering what Mike Norvell's squad brings back: Jordan Travis returns under center, Jared Verse is back on the edge, FSU's backfield should be as decisive as it was last season, and the Noles brought in key transfers like cornerback Fentrell Cypress and tight end Jaheim Bell. Florida State is a legitimate pick for the ACC title.

Overrated: No. 11 Oklahoma. The index is predicting OU to win around 10 games in Brent Venables' second season and while additions like edge rushers Dasan McCullough and Trace Ford should help beef up the team's sloppy defense, the Sooners lost important offensive production to the NFL and can stand some serious improvement at both lines of scrimmage. Oklahoma has every chance to prove its doubters wrong, but two months out from kickoff, the evidence isn't strong enough.

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Underrated: No. 21 Washington. One of several contenders in a suddenly-loaded Pac-12 race, the Huskies return some of college football's most productive offensive threats, not least quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., who led the nation in passing yards a year ago. Washington brings back its pair of 1,000-yard receivers and has solid pieces up front to help protect Penix as he finds those targets downfield. FPI projects the Huskies to win 7.8 games this season, a bit harsh for a team that gets Oregon and Utah at home.

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