UFC 292 Predictions: Does O’Malley Tank Or Surge In Greatest Test?
The wait is almost over for UFC 292, so let's get into some predictions.
UFC 292 will emanate from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts this Saturday night (August 19). Headlining the card will be a bantamweight championship fight between titleholder Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley. The co-main event will see Zhang Weili putting her UFC Women's Strawweight Championship at stake against Amanda Lemos.
(via Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports & Craig Kidwell-USA TODAY Sports)
READ MORE: SEAN O'MALLEY GETS BRUTALLY HONEST ON ALJAMAIN STERLING'S CHANCES AT FEATHERWEIGHT
Without further delay, let's get into the MMA Knockout staff predictions for the UFC 292 main card:
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
Fernando Quiles Jr: Many are viewing the UFC 292 main event as a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. O’Malley definitely has scrambling ability, but his bread and butter is in the standup. I expect the "Sugar" show to fish for big counter punches early, while keeping close to the cage in case he needs to use the fence to get back to his feet if Sterling scores a takedown. Ultimately, I think the "Funk Master" uses his grappling to negate O'Malley's striking, and he'll retain the bantamweight gold, possibly by submission. (Pick: Sterling)
Mathew Riddle: A lot of people are discounting O'Malley in this matchup, but I think they'll be surprised. He gave a very good account for himself against Yan, displaying elite striking and fantastic defensive grappling, and he alleges he trained primarily kickboxing for that fight. What I did notice, however, was O'Malley fading in that fight since it was so high pressure, and if there's someone who excels at pressure it's Sterling, especially across 5 rounds (something O'Malley hasn't endured yet). If he can keep the fight standing, I think "Sugar" runs the show, but it's more likely going to be Sterling controlling him on the ground. (Pick: Sterling)
Drew Beaupré: I have to admit, there’s a few red flags around this matchup that almost encouraged me to switch my pick. Talk of health concerns have largely died down as we’ve gotten closer to this event, but Sterling seemed to make it fairly clear after beating Henry Cejudo that he’d need a bit of time off and that booking this matchup for August was largely the UFC’s decision. I also don’t love the fact that “Funk Master” seems to have already turned his attention to the featherweight division, however until I see O’Malley defend Sterling’s takedowns and/or scramble up to his feet I can’t pick against the style matchup at play here. (Pick: Sterling)
Dan Wade: Many wonder if Sean O’Malley has done enough in the Octagon to merit a title shot, and it’s fair considering his biggest win was a controversial split decision over former champion Petr Yan. Aljamain Sterling is a bad matchup for anyone, but against O’Malley, he will have a significant advantage in the grappling department. Expect the “Funk Master” to try and smother O’Malley and play to his strengths, because if it stays standing he could have a problem. In combat sports, everyone has a puncher's chance and I’m calling the upset. “Sugar” stuns the mixed martial arts world and knocks out Sterling. (Pick: O’Malley)
Consensus: 3-1, Aljamain Sterling
Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
Fernando Quiles Jr: Every now and then, the underdog gets their way in a pivotal title fight. I don't think that will happen here. While Lemos scored a big TKO win over Marina Rodriguez late last year, Weili's pressure game is elite. I think once Weili starts blitzing, Lemos will have little answer for the barrage despite being a power puncher. It's looking like a TKO win for Weili in my mind. (Pick: Weili)
Mathew Riddle: You'd think Lemos is a lot taller than Zhang but no, apparently they're the same height. Although Lemos is legit, I don't think she's been tested enough against the division's elite, because when she has, she's faltered. Zhang is the real deal, and I see her dominating this fight. (Pick: Weili)
Drew Beaupré: I was really interested in the idea of the UFC returning to China for a strawweight title fight between Zhang and Yan Xiaonan, but Lemos has largely impressed during her time with the promotion and does have the kind of power that makes her an interesting challenge for the champion. We saw “Magnum” get finished quickly in her first fight with Rose Namajunas, but if Zhang can avoid eating a big shot early on then this matchup should favor her quite a bit the longer it goes. (Pick: Weili)
Dan Wade: Zhang Weili feels like she is starting one of those runs that we will talk about in the UFC for a long time to come. Weili has been dominant against anyone not named Rose Namajunas, but should not be taking Amanda Lemos lightly. Lemos is a power puncher with a knack for finishing, but I don’t think she will be able to put away this opponent. I have Weili taking this one by unanimous decision. (Pick: Weili)
Consensus: 4-0, Zhang Weili
Neil Magny vs. Ian Machado Gerry
Fernando Quiles Jr: Magny has had some wear and tear on him going into his 39th pro MMA fight. As for Garry, he's a spring chicken on the rise. While Magny certainly has the experience edge, I doubt he's had anywhere near enough time to prepare for Garry's dynamic striking. I think this one ends early. (Pick: Garry)
Mathew Riddle: Never count out Neil Magny's ability to derail a hype train, he's the de-facto gatekeeper for welterweight. Despite this, Garry should have all bases covered by extensively training with Philip Rowe, who was Magny's last opponent and is practically a mirror image of Magny. (Pick: Garry)
Drew Beaupré: Losing Garry would have been a significant blow to this card, and unlike what happened last month with Jack Della Maddalena the Irishman still has a chance to keep climbing the rankings when he takes on Magny. “The Haitian Sensation” is a difficult test for any rising welterweight, but I expect Garry to get the job done and put on another solid performance that he hopefully doesn’t ruin by trying to imitate Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview. (Pick: Garry)
Dan Wade: Ian Garry is one of the most electric fighters in the UFC and he has been able to back up his big talk with an undefeated record. “The Future” will have a distinct power advantage but may struggle to crack the chin of Neil Magny. “The Haitian Sensation” is incredibly tough and will have the experience advantage. Magny took the fight on short notice, and I think Garry will do enough damage to keep his undefeated streak alive. (Pick: Garry)
Conensus: 4-0, Ian Machado Garry
Da'mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
Fernando Quiles Jr: There's no doubt that Mario Bautista likes to get things going early in his fights. His last three victorious have been earned via first-round submission. Blackshear knows a thing or two about submissions as well, pulling off a rare twister just last weekend. He'll have a turbo speed turnaround. I'll lean with Bautista here via decision. (Pick: Bautista)
Mathew Riddle: Despite Blackshear coming in on short notice, both men have had full camps leading up to the fight. Bautista is primarily a submission threat, whereas I think Blackshear bolsters his elite submission skills with a solid striking base. It's a risky one, but I pick Blackshear by finish. (Pick: Blackshear)
Drew Beaupré: Bautista missed out on his chance to add a former champion to his record after Cody Garbrandt withdrew from their matchup, but at least he still gets to make his PPV debut against Blackshear. “Da Monster” deserves all kinds of credit for making such a quick turnaround after his incredible twister finish last weekend, but Bautista is on a great run and should get a crack at the bantamweight top 15 after this fight. (Pick: Bautista)
Dan Wade: There are short-notice fights all the time, but there are not many names in recent history that have fought on UFC cards in back-to-back weeks. That is what Da’Mon Blackshear will do when he squares off with Mario Bautista at UFC 292 after winning with a rare twister submission last weekend. I’m sure Bautista appreciated Blackshear’s twister as a man who himself has submitted three-straight opponents in the first round. Both men are well-versed on the ground, but I think Bautista’s mauling style gets the job done. (Pick: Bautista)
Consensus: 3-1, Mario Bautista
Marlon "Chito" Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
Fernando Quiles Jr: Fight fans are well aware by now that "Chito" doesn't really get going until later on in his bouts. Sometimes, that has cost him and other times it has paid off with a brutal finish. Munhoz likes to move forward and I think he could snag the opening frame. Vera may not want to chance it, however, as Munhoz is a tough customer who knows how to survive after being rocked. I have this going the distance with "Chito" named the winner (Pick: Vera)
Mathew Riddle: I think that Munhoz is a live dog, but Vera's length and shot selection should play him havoc in this fight. It's only 15 minutes, so probably not long enough for a Vera finish, I'd say 29-28 Vera UD. (Pick: Vera)
Drew Beaupré: I would love to have seen the original matchup between Vera and Henry Cejudo, but considering how “Chito” frustrated a lot of fans with his last performance this seems like a much better chance for him to get back into the win column. Munhoz reminded everyone of how good he still is when he shut down Chris Gutierrez, but Vera is the much bigger man and will hopefully show a bit more urgency on the feet after his loss to Cory Sandhagen. (Pick: Vera)
Dan Wade: The biggest unknown for this matchup is which version of Marlon Vera shows up. “Chito” has some highlight reel knockouts, but historically is a slow starter and hopefully he shows some more urgency in this fight after his loss against Cory Sandhagen. Pedro Munhoz has fought some of the biggest names in the division, but his skill has slipped in recent years. Vera needs to win this fight to get back on track for a chance at the belt, and I think he takes out Munhoz. (Pick: Vera)
Consensus: 4-0, Marlon "Chito" Vera
MMAKnockout.com will provide coverage of UFC 292 this Saturday night. Be sure to visit our homepage on fight night for VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS of the key bouts, including the title fight between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.
READ MORE: BRENDAN SCHAUB SHARES PREDICTION FOR ALJAMAIN STERLING VS. SEAN O'MALLEY AT UFC 292
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