Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Quarterback position primer

Author:
Michael Beller
Publish date:
Aug 6, 2014

New rules and offenses have made supersonic passing games the must-have thing in football. That starts with the quarterback position, and if you’re going to get a QB early in your draft or highly priced in your auction, make sure it is one of the great triumvirate of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Those three are truly worthy of your greatest draft capital. They are all at the helm of potent, pass-heavy offenses and all bring the consistency that fantasy owners so value.

FANTASY FOOTBALL POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECTIONS:

Taking a quarterback in the first round used to be the true mark of a fantasy football newbie. Now it might be that of a savant.

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

Once Rodgers, Manning and Brees are off the board, the old adage of waiting on a quarterback once again reigns supreme. You’ll likely have to invest a fourth-round pick on Matthew Stafford, but you can wait until the eighth round to get Tony Romo. Over the last three years, Stafford has averaged 4,885 yards, 30 touchdowns and 17 interceptions per season. Romo has averaged 4,305 yards, 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in that same time. That’s a difference of 1.2 fantasy points per game in standard-scoring leagues. Enough to rank Stafford comfortably ahead of Romo on cheat sheets? Yes. Enough to warrant grabbing Stafford 40 picks before Romo? Absolutely not. If you miss out on the top of the position, you’ll want to be one of the last people to fill your quarterback slot.

There is a lot of value to be had when you get into the No. 9 to No. 13 range. Matt Ryan, for example, could slip here in some leagues. Ryan, of course, has one of the league’s best receivers in Julio Jones, and another strong receiver in Roddy White. Jay Cutler, who has arguably the best weapons cache, will certainly go in this neighborhood, as will the aforementioned Romo. All have top-five upside, but will come at a significantly cheaper price than the fifth quarterback off the board.

In short, the passing renaissance has increased the value on both ends of the starting class of quarterbacks, while putting the squeeze on the guys in between.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Knile Davis - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis is about as important a handcuff as you’ll find in the league. Davis would impact fantasy standings if Jamaal Charles goes down at any point. Davis picked up 81 yards and two TDs on 27 carries when Charles was resting Week 17 last season.

Terrance West - RB, Cleveland Browns

The rookie will need to beat out veteran Ben Tate for touches, but his upside is enormous. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery recently told reporters, ''He has that Ricky Watters, Walter Payton, lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.''

Dri Archer - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s possible that the undersized third-round pick is restricted to kick return duty in his rookie year. It’s also possible that Archer emerges as a dynamic RB/WR who could score anytime he touches the ball.

Lache Seastrunk - RB, Washington Redskins

The Baylor product is behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the depth chart and has developed a reputation for having awful hands. He actually dropped 10 balls and only caught nine during his two years in college. That said, Seastrunk’s running ability would make him a fantasy asset if Morris goes down with an injury.

Ka’Deem Carey - RB, Chicago Bears

Carey is an all-around running back who is capable of stepping in and producing for fantasy owners if Matt Forte gets hurt. He’s the type of rookie who would be a hot commodity if he were drafted by a team without an elite running back.

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

There is a legitimate chance that Freeman will eventually start over Steven Jackson; the rookie's average draft position will skyrocket with a dominant preseason. The former FSU back should see the field a lot if he can handle pass protection.

Christine Michael - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Michael is an instant stud if Marshawn Lynch goes down. Either way, the Seahawks have hinted at a committee approach and Lynch’s brief holdout may not have helped matters for the veteran running back. Michael has the skill set to provide RB1 numbers if he receives enough carries.

Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Anyone who saw Carlos Hyde at Ohio State knew he wouldn’t get buried in San Francisco, even with a crowded backfield. He’s arguably the most talented rookie RB and is one Frank Gore injury away from fantasy stardom.

Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis Rams

Many fantasy owners are high on Zac Stacy entering the season. But ask anyone who drafted Daryl Richardson in 2013 if Jeff Fisher is afraid to make a change at running back. The dynamic rookie Tre Mason is too talented to ride the pine forever and he’d turn into a nice fantasy option if given carries.

Chris Polk - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Even with Darren Sproles in town, Polk would hold a ton of fantasy value if LeSean McCoy were to miss time at any point. Chip Kelly’s offense turns RBs into fantasy stars and Polk is the clear-cut backup to McCoy.

Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rookie from West Virginia is expected to be an immediate handcuff to Doug Martin for fantasy purposes. Smith should contribute in passing situations early, but could steal carries from Martin as the season progresses.

Markus Wheaton - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Wheaton is expected to inherit a starting gig with Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders gone. The sophomore from Oregon State has big-play ability and could easily emerge as a must-start fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee is a candidate to lead the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie, but his competition isn’t exactly elite. He should be able to rack up catches and yards with Jacksonville expected to be playing from behind more often than not.

Kenny Stills - WR, New Orleans Saints

Stills has a ton of breakout potential coming off a rookie season in which he posted 641 yards on 32 catches with five TDs. He’s a big-play threat on ever possession and should easily surpass the 46 targets he received last season. He might only need 50 catches to score double-digit TDs.

Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina Panthers

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound, No. 28 overall pick is a perfect red-zone target and he could help the Panthers win games immediately. For fantasy purposes, he’s merely a WR3 or a WR4 until he proves he can be more than just a TD-dependent gamble on a weekly basis.

Tavon Austin - WR, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie in 2013, Austin only caught 40 passes for 418 yards and never really found a true role. He’s admitted that the adjustment from college to the NFL took a toll on him and he continuously dropped passes early in the season. If things click in his second year, Austin has the skillset to be a star.

Justin Hunter - WR, Tennessee Titans

The second-year receiver showed signs of his high ceiling last season with a few big games down the stretch. Hunter has the tools to develop into a WR1 in his prime and should play a prominent role on young Titans’ offense.

Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s departure opens the door for Matthews to step up. The 2014 season could turn into a perfect storm for Matthews to succeed with Jeremy Maclin coming off a torn ACL and Riley Cooper coming off a career season.

Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions

The Lions turned heads when they selected Ebron No. 10 overall in May’s Draft. It might take a season or two for the UNC product to reach his potential, but Ebron is an elite fantasy TE in the making. He’s been compared to Jimmy Graham and has the skillset to live up to his lofty expectations.

Ladarius Green - TE, San Diego Chargers

The 6-6, 237-pound Green is an obvious red-zone target and has the tools to be an impact fantasy option if he receives ample targets. Antonio Gates, the incumbent TE in San Diego, is 34 and slowed significantly down the stretch in 2013. Green caught 17 passes for 376 yards and three TDs last season, highlighted by a three-game stretch in which he caught nine balls for 206 yards and two scores.

Elite

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers -- Manning and Brees also fall in this category, but it's Rodgers who warrants further examination. He earns this distinction for a few reasons. First, Rodgers is as consistent as they come. He’s the only quarterback in the league with at least 7.8 yards per attempt in each of the last five seasons, and in four of those years he has been north of 8.0 YPA. Second, he has two top-10 receivers in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and the best running game of the three top-tier quarterbacks. Finally, Rodgers supplements his numbers on the ground in ways that Manning and Brees do not. You can’t go wrong with any of these three, but Rodgers could prove most valuable.

Reach

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts -- Luck carries an average draft position of about 52 overall, which places him fifth among quarterbacks. The real-life quarterback virtues Luck possesses, however, have not yet translated to the fantasy game. He has completed 57 percent of his career pass attempts, gotten just 6.85 YPA (Geno Smith had 6.88 YPA last year) and thrown for 46 touchdowns against 27 interceptions. He does add value with his running ability, but nowhere near enough to consider taking him alongside guys like Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson and Chris Johnson when so many other quarterbacks are on the board.

Steal

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears -- Cutler is coming off the board right around the 100th pick in an average draft. Just one team in the league has three non-quarterbacks selected in the first 25 picks in typical drafts, and that’s the Bears. With Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery at his disposal, not to mention Marc Trestman designing schemes and calling plays, Cutler is poised for the best year of his career. He has true top-five potential, and will be a regular weekly starter, at worst.

Injury Risk

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins -- By time the season starts, Griffin will be about 19 months removed from the gruesome knee injury he suffered against the Seahawks in the 2012 playoffs. Fantasy owners should trust that he is over that malady, but Griffin is still at his best when running is part of his game. Even when he doesn’t actually advance the ball with his legs, he does a lot of scrambling to extend plays. That also exposes him to more hits.

Rookie

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings -- Johnny Manziel gets all the attention from the media, but if one rookie quarterback is going to make an on-field splash this year, the bet here is that it is Bridgewater. Recall that the Louisville product was widely considered the best quarterback before the famously flawed combine process degraded his stock. With weapons like Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph in the passing game, and a back like Adrian Peterson behind him, Bridgewater is in a great environment. He may not start right away, but Matt Cassel probably isn’t leading the Vikings to the playoffs in the loaded NFC. Bridgewater will get his shot this year.

Quarterback Tier Explanations

All stats below represent projections for the 2014 season.

First Tier -- Rodgers, Manning and Brees are easily the best fantasy quarterbacks in the game. The dropoff after them is steep.


YDS	TDS	INTs	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	bye	Value
5,329	45	15	-10	1	4	$45


YDs	TDs	INTs	Rush yds	Rush Tds	BYE	Value
4,978	43	10	273	2	9	$43


YDs	TDs	INTs	Rush yds	Rush TDs	BYE	Value
5,008	39	12	24	0	6	$39

Second Tier -- This group may actually be the worst to draft from, unless they come at a significant discount. There just isn’t enough difference between them and the guys in Tier 3.


YDs	TDs	INTs	Rush YDs	Rush TDs	BYE	Value
4,995	34	17	55	1	9	$25


YDs	TDs	INTs	Rush YDs	Rush TDs	BYE	Value
4,632	33	14	43	0	9	$22


YDs	TDs	INTS	Rush YDs	Rush TDs	BYE	Value
4,486	32	12	38	1	10	$21


YDS	TDs	INTs	Rush YDs	Rush TDs	BYE	Value
4,355	32	12	38	1	7	$19

Third Tier -- This is the sweet spot for late-QB value. Tony Romo and Jay Cutler make for especially great targets.

Fourth Tier -- While the guys in this group enter the year as backups, all have the chops to end the year among the starting class.

Fifth Tier -- This is where things really take a turn. You’re trying to hit on upside guys or going cheap with your second quarterback in two-QB leagues.

Sixth Tier -- Michael Vick, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Fitzpatrick. In other words, very deep sleepers who are low-risk, high-reward picks.

Seventh Tier -- You shouldn’t have to go this deep unless you’re in a 20-team league that requires you to carry a backup quarterback.


	Player	Team	Bye	Auction	YDs	TDs	INTs	RUSH YDs	RUSH TDs	TIER
1	Peyton Manning	DEN	4	$45	5,329	45	15	-10	1	1
2	Aaron Rodgers	GB	9	$43	4,978	43	10	273	2	1
3	Drew Brees	NO	6	$39	5,008	39	12	24	0	1
4	Matthew Stafford	DET	9	$25	4,995	34	17	55	1	2
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	9	$22	4,632	33	14	43	0	2
6	Tom Brady	NE	10	$21	4,486	32	12	38	1	2
7	Nick Foles	PHI	7	$19	4,355	30	11	186	1	2
8	Andrew Luck	IND	10	$14	3,915	27	11	379	3	3
9	Robert Griffin III	WAS	10	$13	3,400	29	14	603	3	3
10	Cam Newton	CAR	12	$12	3,310	24	13	584	6	3
11	Tony Romo	DAL	11	$10	4,217	31	12	37	0	3
12	Jay Cutler	CHI	9	$10	4,007	32	17	60	0	3
13	Philip Rivers	SD	10	$8	4,265	28	16	12	0	4
14	Colin Kaepernick	SF	8	$8	3,229	23	10	520	4	4
15	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	12	$7	4,350	27	14	76	0	4
16	Russell Wilson	SEA	4	$7	3,679	24	11	475	2	4
17	Andy Dalton	CIN	4	$6	4,102	26	13	123	0	4
18	Eli Manning	NYG	8	$5	4,017	26	18	19	0	5
19	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	5	$5	3,845	25	14	203	1	5
20	Josh McCown	TB	7	$5	3,214	23	10	93	1	5
21	Sam Bradford	STL	4	$4	3,781	25	16	74	0	5
22	Carson Palmer	ARI	4	$4	3,887	25	19	17	0	5
23	EJ Manuel	BUF	9	$4	3,232	21	16	441	3	5
24	Joe Flacco	BAL	11	$3	3,989	22	15	83	1	5
25	Alex Smith	KC	6	$3	3,284	20	10	274	2	6
26	Johnny Manziel	CLE	4	$3	2,839	18	14	512	4	6
27	Jake Locker	TEN	9	$3	3,313	20	12	325	2	6
28	Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	10	$3	2,547	14	9	84	0	6
29	Geno Smith	NYJ	11	$2	2,457	16	11	194	1	6
30	Matt Schaub	OAK	5	$2	3,154	16	12	24	0	6
31	Ryan Fitzpatrick	HOU	10	$2	2,934	18	15	151	1	6
32	Michael Vick	NYJ	11	$1	1,213	8	6	200	1	7
33	Brian Hoyer	CLE	4	$1	735	4	2	10	0	7
34	Derek Carr	OAK	5	$1	652	3	5	15	0	7
35	Matt Cassel	MIN	10	$1	1,325	8	7	40	0	7
36	Chad Henne	JAC	11	$1	1,825	7	10	105	0	7
37	Blake Bortles	JAC	11	$1	1,358	7	9	43	0	7
38	Mike Glennon	TB	7	$1	843	6	7	22	0	7

Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Quarterback position primer

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST